How is that spring selling season coming along?
North San Diego County Coastal detached sales and pricing, January through May (5 months):
| Year | # of Sales | Avg. $/sf |
| 2000 | ||
| 2001 | ||
| 2002 | ||
| 2003 | ||
| 2004 | ||
| 2005 | ||
| 2006 | ||
| 2007 | ||
| 2008 | ||
| 2009 | ||
| 2010 | ||
| 2011 |
The ez-qual, no money down loans up to $1.5 million finally stopped in the summer of 2007, so the best comparison is between the last four years.
Lately the momentum has started to wane, and those attempting to sell need to adjust their price if they think they are going to get out this summer:
The next 6-8 months will really tell the tale of long term prospects.
Much of the artificial man-made market variables that have effected the housing makert in its quest to find true equalibrium is coming to an (expensive) end.
I know there was a headline the other day about the One offering mortgage aid to homedebtors but that won’t happen.
6-8 months and you will be able to make coherent long term forecasts/predictions
Spring Whiff
Wake me up in 2 years… seems like we’ll be going sideways for at least that long…. zzzzz
Thanks JtR.
Does anyone else see an upward/donarward trend here? I sure dont. But I sure see 2004ish PPSF correlations. Not that anyone would buy purely based on these stats.
JTR – Look at the correlation, or direction, of both the total sales & $psf.
The trend is that as sales volumes were dropping, yet people were paying higher and higher $/sf. Note that sales volume had been dropping since 2002 (effectively through 2009), well before the “peak”!!!
Appears that the smart money was getting out (or stopped coming in) beginning in 2002, per the lower volume of sales numbers, and the late arriving ‘sheep’ money was paying anything to get in the game (i.e. higher $/sf).
In 2007, when the dam broke, both volume and $/sf started going down together.
Previously, I expect most people would have thought that volume was rising into 2007 instead of peaking in 2002 then falling.
Not a good idea.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/09/real-estate-agents-needing-cash-turn-advances/
Very interesting chart.
Agree with clearfund. There seems to be an inverse correlation between the sales volume and sf price: volume goes up and the sf price goes down. In NSDCC, the peak for volume and the bottom for price were reached at around 2002 (1568 units v.s $292/sf.)
If this observation has any forecasting value, buyers may be able to use sales volumes to gauge the bottom of the market? Would a sales volume of 1500ish be the telltale sign of a bottom?
OMG on Daniel’s article.
I know Tanya – she is a good, long-time agent too. Not sure why anyone would want to be the subject of that article?
clearfund/KD,
Agreed with the forecasting value, and particularly with sales being the best leading indicator.
When both sales and pricing are going in the same direction, it’s nervous time. Either a bubble is building, or deflating!
I guess them there reelitter pilgrims taking closing loans got no equity HELOC to tap.
San Diego county has been showing a pretty soft spring selling season, while NCC has done pretty well or at least maintained with last year’s numbers. I don’t know that you can draw a correlation between NCC and general San Deigo county, where NCC will follow SD County or NCC leads SD county but certainly if SD County and the National numbers stay soft the media will focus on the negatives.