Here’s a look at the first quarter detached stats, split between our North San Diego County Coastal region (Carlsbad to La Jolla) on the right vs. the rest of the county (on left):
First quarter detached closings UNDER $1,000,000
| Year | Not-NCC Sales | $-per-sf | $ chg, annually | NCC Sales | $-per-sf | $ chg, annually |
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| 10yrdiff |
The rest of San Diego Co. is virtually back to where it was 10 years ago, price-wise, but 1Q11-sales were a troubling 27% lower than they were in 2002 . The North County Coastal region has survived without experiencing a double-digit drop in first-quarter pricing, but it’s disconcerting with sales being 52% lower than in 2002. But I think we could have sold another couple of hundred homes in the coastal area if there would have been more well-priced inventory.
First quarter detached closings OVER $1,000,000
| Year | Not-NCC Sales | $-per-sf | $ chg, annually | NCC Sales | $-per-sf | $ chg, annually |
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| 10yrdiff |
Compared to 2002, it’s amazing to see the increase in the number of over-$1M sales now, while the under-$1M group has dropped so much.
The $1,000,000+ homes in the rest of the county has seen a bumpy ride, price-wise in the first quarter over the last ten years, where NSDCC’s pricing was more of a bell curve – and we’ve been on a real losing streak over the last three years.
But sales (a leading indicator) have risen nicely during the last couple of years in both the over- and under-$1M markets in North San Diego County Coastal.
Very interesting chart and comparison Jim.
The high-quality content you continue to provide on a daily basis year-after-year is truly remarkable.
What do you attribute those differences to — the overall growing divide between wealthy and working class being exacerbated by good and bad decisions made during the housing boom and bust?
How do you think your audience should interpret these charts (whether owners or potential buyers)?
-Don Q
Thanks Don Q!
Yes, I agree – we in the midst of a “growing divide” between the haves and have-nots.
Those with money are used to getting what they want, when they want it.
Having a quality home is important to them, because typically they are achievers – and they get competitive about winning the battle of finding the right house, at the right price.
When the right house comes along, they don’t have a problem adding a little mustard to the price, in order to win.
How should people interpret?
It’s worth noting that around NSDCC in 2007 the numbers of over/under $1M sales were almost identical.
I think it is surprising to most how affluent this area is. In NSDCC last quarter, 37% of sales were over $1,000,000, where in the rest of SD County they were 2% of the total.
People with money don’t worry about squeezing out the last 10% of the downturn, especially when they get in the fight and see how pathetic the inventory is, and witness the bidding wars that ensue when a good one comes up.
Great information Jim.
Is Oceanside in the NOT-NCC numbers or just not included at all? I would imagine if included it would bring up the NOT-NCC # and lower the NCC # if included on that side?
Definitely (2) markets and I would say that in the last 10 years North County Coastal has matured into an upscale market/region for better or worse. 10 years ago there were more modest homes at modest prices here, not so much anymore.
Most will likely disagree, but, I believe we’re seeing a reflection of (2) markets in these numbers as well which make the numbers seem bizarre; those who have to sell, (the bulk of the inventory), and those who want to sell electively and don’t need to come down on price. Anyone in their right mind wouldn’t sell right now.
How do you interpret these numbers? I’d say if you want a good deal on real estate it might not be in North County Coastal. But, you have to face that if you want to live by the ocean in Southern California it’s all expensive. Didn’t used to be that way and in many ways it’s a real loss, but inevitable.
If you factored in interest rates the payments for 2011 home are less than a 2002 home. Spring 2002 had a 30 year fixed interest rate of 6.80 vs today’s 5.00 or so. A 210K loan in 2002 is about the equivalent of a $250K loan today.
Hasn’t that always been the case though. The haves and have nots. It’s just more clear now that the gap has widen even more.
Just wondering-but perhaps one reason why the $1m+ sales volume isn’t as high as some would like is because those homes aren’t really $1m+ homes? 🙂
I would imagine that 10 years ago NCC had significantly fewer rooftops than it does now (no La costa greens, ridge, oaks, bressi, condo conversions which were apartments before, crosby, bridges, santaluz/black mtn ranch, etc).
If you were to adjust the # of sales relative to total population, or total households, you would likely find the sales to be off even more than the absolute numbers show.
taken to the next level, it show how strong pricing has become since more people are chasing proportionally fewer available homes.
…meant chasing fewer available WORTHY homes as evidenced by the lower transactions but strong price.
Last of the “affordable” So-Cal coastal has been sliding towards out-of-reach for the past 10 years. For good or bad Coastal NCC has been transforming into an Extension of OC/LA Coast with similar market (and perhaps would-be social) characterstics.
livingincali, you’re right that with lower interest rates you can buy a higher priced home and have the same payment, but don’t forget that you’ll have higher property taxes and insurance.
That’s very true, Jinx, and something too many people fail to consider.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev8ryRP-BSM&feature=related
This guy does home videos (a realtor)…but up in west LA. NICE area he works in and informative.
#9 KKK – I think you are right…been going on for longer than 10 years though. We’ve run out of available coastal property. But if they eliminate the Marines… as I read is possible…that will open up the last of the coastal land that’s left….if we don’t let them put a commercial airport there in its place.
Jinx that’s true but the interest rate in this case trumps the taxes and insurance. If we assume 2% for taxes and insurance then the 40K difference is 800 per year or a little less than $70/mo. The difference between a loan payment on 250K at 5% vs 6.8% is about $300/month, so maybe we’re a bit closer to 220K then vs 250K now.
#14 Kishan Khurana: You hit the nail on the head. This video is about Huntington Beach, but I think it also describes North County Coastal well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEK1Z57MKhs