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Here’s a look at the first quarter detached stats, split between our North San Diego County Coastal region (Carlsbad to La Jolla) on the right vs. the rest of the county (on left):

First quarter detached closings UNDER $1,000,000

Year Not-NCC Sales $-per-sf $ chg, annually NCC Sales $-per-sf $ chg, annually
2002
5,088
$201
688
$252
2003
4,777
$237
+18%
554
$283
+12%
2004
5,049
$286
+21%
432
$334
+18%
2005
4,588
$340
+19%
363
$380
+14%
2006
3,717
$345
+1%
321
$374
-2%
2007
3,161
$327
-5%
290
$359
-4%
2008
2,486
$263
-20%
199
$334
-7%
2009
4,348
$195
-26%
222
$305
-9%
2010
3,954
$219
+12%
317
$317
+4%
2011
3,711
$211
-4%
332
$307
-3%
10yrdiff
-27%
+5%
-52%
+22%

The rest of San Diego Co. is virtually back to where it was 10 years ago, price-wise, but 1Q11-sales were a troubling 27% lower than they were in 2002 . The North County Coastal region has survived without experiencing a double-digit drop in first-quarter pricing, but it’s disconcerting with sales being 52% lower than in 2002. But I think we could have sold another couple of hundred homes in the coastal area if there would have been more well-priced inventory.

First quarter detached closings OVER $1,000,000

Year Not-NCC Sales $-per-sf $ chg, annually NCC Sales $-per-sf $ chg, annually
2002
53
$439
159
$436
2003
72
$420
-4%
173
$496
+7%
2004
159
$411
-2%
266
$540
+9%
2005
202
$461
+12%
313
$551
+2%
2006
248
$489
+6%
281
$616
+12%
2007
230
$456
-7%
285
$544
-11%
2008
98
$485
+6%
194
$587
+8%
2009
60
$476
-2%
112
$565
-4%
2010
89
$423
-11%
177
$501
-11%
2011
87
$461
+9%
199
$476
-5%
10yrdiff
+64%
+5%
+25%
+9%

Compared to 2002, it’s amazing to see the increase in the number of over-$1M sales now, while the under-$1M group has dropped so much.

The $1,000,000+ homes in the rest of the county has seen a bumpy ride, price-wise in the first quarter over the last ten years, where NSDCC’s pricing was more of a bell curve – and we’ve been on a real losing streak over the last three years.

But sales (a leading indicator) have risen nicely during the last couple of years in both the over- and under-$1M markets in North San Diego County Coastal.

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