Here is the average LP/SP $-per-sf of detached properties sold in North SD County Coastal:
| Period | LP $/sf | SP $/sf |
| 2010 | ||
| 4Q10 | ||
| Jan/Feb’11 |
But the recent action has been startling – last week the average LP-per-sf of the 52 pendings was $461.35.
Click here Pendings between Feb 28 – March 6 for the list, and you’ll see that several long-time-listed properties opened escrow last week, and others with head-shaking list prices.
Yes, it doesn’t mean anything until they are closed.
But if buyers see and hear that “prices” are going up, it won’t help their anxiety level.
Observations:
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It’s become a binary, “yes or no” decision. If they like the house, they buy it, with less concern about working to get a great deal, and more concern with ending the search.
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“Quality” ranks much higher than “great price”. The most-expensive house in the tract is more likely to sell than the cheapest (see the last one on the attached list).
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Listing agents are exceedingly over-confident, and not willing to deal.
The shortage of quality inventory is the cause, and with buyers gravitating towards the best available, there is a scramble to snatch them up – all while the dogs and OPTs lie around untouched. In a few months we may be hearing of higher prices and lower sales, which will really set the pundits on their ear!
JTR – Is it possible to put your quote: “But the recent action has been startling – last week the average LP-per-sf of the 52 pendings was $461.35” in perspective by comparing the Average List Price of the homes closed in Jan/Feb 2011 at $353/sf.
That would give some comparative perspective to the starting point/closing-point shown in the first 2 months.
I added them in on the post.
I double-check these every time, but I must have left out a zip code or something when figuring the Jan & Feb numbers – the sold $/sf was a little higher this time, at $370/sf.
Comparing Jan/Feb. with the lasted average LP as well as SP for each zip code area makes more sense. A couple more of the million dollar babies in La Jolla or Del Mar can throw the numbers off.
Comparing the pendings to solds is always dicey, if there is a big fall-out ratio the pricing could get swayed dramatically.
But I’m trying to show what I am seeing on the street; the quality homes are hot!
Look at Avenida Nieve in Carlsbad – there are three houses for sale:
$745,000 – road noise
$798,500 to $832,500 – cat smell, listed since April
$829,900 to $849,900 – new listing, and within the first week they get the offer.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110011959-3359_Avenida_Nieve_Carlsbad_CA_92009
And never mind that the same model, an REO, just closed a couple of doors down for $688,842 last week:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100057686-3335_Avenida_Nieve_Carlsbad_CA_92009
Jim,
another metric that would be great when you post the lp/sq ft of those that marked pending, can you also do an “average cumulative days on market”.
That would really help clear up confusion as to whether they are taking a long time to sell, or if they are flying off the shelves due to the quality.
I suspect it’s actually the very high quality homes that are pricing right now. Just a hunch.
chuck
I’ve cut back on the DOM metric because there are so many that get “re-freshed”, that it isn’t that accurate. There are also listing agents who, once they get a buyer, will re-input the listing to make their own DOM and LP:SP stats look better.
I included actual list today so you can see how they are all over the map, click on the link in the post to see.
Here’s the average DOM:
2010: 73
4Q10: 87
Jan & Feb: 87
Last week’s pendings: 84
Is that what you mean by average cumulative days on market?
Jim,
Yes, that’s what I meant. unfortunately, “cumulative days on market” is so horribly abused by agents that it renders that metric unreliable.
That’s too bad.
Chuck
I think sometimes we look at the MLS trying to get a read on the future of the market but forget that MLS is a marketing tool rather than a place for accurate up to date sales trends. It would be nice if we had a MLS that was slightly more analytic in nature (a true representation of eveything that happened in the market), but it’s used as a marketing tool by salesmen. Public Records and comps are the true representation of the market but it’s always a look in the past and makes it difficult to analyze what’s happening now.
Seems like NCC is still a really hot market, but other lower and mid tier markets seem to be lagging a bit. There’s still stuff going on, its just not as hot as it was last year when there was a significant tax credit involved.