Another review of the August detached-home sales is in order, due to requests for a more complete list, but also to examine the Case-Shiller claim that San Diego prices have gone up 14 months in a row (non-seasonally adjusted), and a cumulative 11% in the last year:
|Area – Zip Code||2009/2010 Sales||% chg.||2009/2010 $$-per-sf||% chg.|
|West RB 92127|
|All SD Co.|
Don’t put much stock, if any, into groups with 10 or fewer samples, and overall use any statistics with extreme caution (focus on the trends).
It looks like the mainstream media will continue to struggle with the plunging-sales-and-higher-prices whipsaw in the coming months. But look at Oceanside stats, not even on the lower-end has there been 11% gains in the last year. We’ll take a closer look at the Case-Shiller Index, but if I were you, I wouldn’t be betting in their futures parlour based on what you see on the street.
Thanks for including Oceanside 🙂
I realize there were only 10 sales in cbad 92008, but that -25% is still surprising. Do you think it’s because of the cancer cluster scare?
As Bill McBride always points out, the Case Shiller index is a three month average, and is one month behind on top of that, so what you see there is May, June, July, and not August or September.
Thanks Nate, I always dig good hearty criticism in the morning. Thanks for giving me an hour before jumping on me.
I know how Case-Shiller works. I’m trying to point out that nowhere along the line this year have I seen evidence of 11% YOY price gains. Not 1Q, not 2Q, and not now, just some sporadic 5% to 7% here and there.
But sellers read this garbage in the MSM, and think, hey, I’m going to hold out – prices are going up every month for 14 months, and it’s my turn next – I’m holding out!
If anyone can show me a same-house sale that has gone up 11% in the last year that wasn’t a flipper, I’ll give you a free bubbleinfo t-shirt (Case-Shiller says that they don’t count flippers under 6 months, and weight the others accordingly).
Cancer-cluster scare? Maybe, but more due to lack of good-quality inventory.
There has been nothing decent for sale in the 92008, but there is demand. The house on Basswood that was in the $700,000s all year finally got down to where it should have been, at $599,000, and went pending three days later.
Looks like a pretty healthy market, overall.
Here in Santa Clara County median sale price has been basically flat for four months after increasing for over a year. The reason for the increase has been an increase in traditional sales and a reduction in distressed sales (bank owned and short sales).
Digger deeper, we find a big decrease in affordable REOs coming into the market, not because there are fewer REOs overall, but because they are now popping up in all sectors and generally languishing in the high price ranges where dead lawns and no staging are a distinct disadvantage.
Looking back, the first wave of REOs sprang from the collapse of the subprime sector which was heavily skewed toward affordable housing. Those REOs were gobbled up by first time buyers and all cash investors, pulling the median sale price down in the process. The subsequent increase merely represents a return to a more normal mix of properties, though actual appreciation is unlikely as long as 30% of closed sales are distressed properties.
“Don’t put much stock, if any, into groups with 10 or fewer samples”
Just when I thought I couldn’t love you any more…
Weird that DM and SB are going up, there are houses that had for sale signs up when I moved here that are still standing proud. I need to turn my music up louder I suppose.