Written by Jim the Realtor

August 18, 2010

39 Comments

  1. tj & the bear

    Buyers going crazy? No, those buyers are already crazy. Wow, just wow.

  2. A neighbor

    For 1.5M, I’ll be in Olivenhain or Encinitas. Great schools, bigger lots, beach close…and more character, in my opinion. If people like these and are putting decent downpayments or all cash…more power to them. I just fail to see why anyone pays 1.5 million for a trackhouse in CV when there are other options out there.

  3. Dan

    A neighbor
    i could not agree more

  4. Geotpf

    Slightly off topic: Redfin did an analysis of home sales in seven large counties that they do business in. In California, they included LA County and San Francisco “County”, but not San Deigo. Less than half of the half million 2009 listings they tracked sold in 2009, with only 3.9% still active. (If a house was listed multiple times, it was counted seperately each time.) They blamed the whole sellers-won’t-give-their-house-away vs. buyers-want-a-deal thing, obviously.

    http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2010/08/the_likelihood_that_an_agent_will_sell_a_listing_less_than_50.html?src=map-ad-corpblog81510-socal

  5. shadash

    I don’t get why new houses in Carmel Valley sell at these prices either. I think some people just like to live in new areas.

    Last week I was in 4s ranch and I saw the same thing. Crackerjack houses with prices in the 600-800’s and young families with kids going crazy to buy.

    When I see prices like 1.whatever million. All I can think about is the amazing custom house I could have built for 500-600k. How much is the perk of looking out of your bedroom window and into your neighbors bedroom window worth?

  6. Kathy Rowe

    I live in Derby Hills. It is the schools, proximity to good jobs/short commutes, and weather (close to coast). While the prices on the video seem high, please know the sellers paid dearly for those homes so are not making a killing…some losing money. I’ve actually seen many homes in CV sell for $250k less than the buyers paid.

  7. A 92130 fan

    Jim, nice car upgrade: from a beat up pickup truck to a benz. What model?

  8. Joe

    See, now, I gotta back to the chiropractor. Shaking my head too much.

  9. Jinx

    Even if you get a $250k “discount” off the price of the house, it can still be overpriced.

  10. clearfund

    JTR – given that school is starting asap, and schools are a MAJOR reason for the high demand in CV, is a portion of this mini ‘rush’ to get in contract to get the kids enrolled before class starts???

  11. Jim the Realtor

    Affirmative on school rush, and on the south end the schools are full so it is probably a bigger concern there.

    Last year’s detached sales in 92130:

    May = 30
    June = 35
    July = 43
    August = 38
    Sept = 44
    Oct = 28

    This year’s detached sales in 92130:

    May = 43
    June = 40
    July = 35

    Pricing is solid too; 2009/2010 average cost-per-sf:

    May = $324/$344
    June = $344/$347
    July = $345/$343

  12. Jim the Realtor

    The north city community of Pacific Highlands Ranch is in a bit of a pickle.

    Residents there want parks, libraries and other facilities, like a shopping center — the amenities that make a neighborhood a neighborhood.

    But there’s a problem: the city of San Diego can only build those amenities once the neighborhood’s population reaches a certain size. And the neighborhood’s population can’t reach that size because enough homes aren’t allowed to be built yet.

    When voters gave the green light for construction of Pacific Highlands Ranch more than a decade ago, they limited its construction to 1,900 homes until ramps connecting two nearby freeways — Interstate 5 and State Route 56 — were completed. Surrounding communities were afraid that without those ramps, traffic from new residents would overwhelm their streets.

    But there’s another problem: Pacific Highlands Ranch is fast approaching 1,900 homes, and those freeway ramps aren’t scheduled to be completed for another 10 years, meaning growth will soon stop.

    Oh, and one more problem: Residents of nearby Torrey Pines have said when it comes time to build those ramps, they’ll oppose them. They think the sweeping flyover design would be an eyesore, and the necessary widening could damage their neighborhood.

    http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/neighborhoods/article_f7779a0c-ab3f-11df-b42f-001cc4c002e0.html

  13. MarkinSanDiego

    Manhattan still cooking too. . .: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jV_dYRIncEn6w2TFIJX165UaxRJw

    Can we say Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. . .CV being right next store to “cookin” Qualcom doesn’t hurt a bit. Wall Street comeback (at least for managers) is helping Manhattan back.

    Basically more evidence of a two-tier economy in the US. Some say 5%/95%, but in reality it is more like 20% doing very well and 80% just hanging in there.

  14. Jim the Realtor

    I agree Mark, and people in CV apparently don’t care about the economic news, what bloggers think, etc.

    They are flush enough that they are buying houses when they see the right one.

    I’ll go with your 20/80 rule too on the haves/havenots.

  15. CapitalGain

    20% “doing very well” and 80% just hanging in there? That may be the view from Splendid Isolation, but at street level you’ll see more like 5% “doing well”, 75% just trying to hang on to what they have, and 20% in a day-to-day fight for survival.

  16. Daniel

    Unless and until manufacturing gets going, nothing will change.

  17. A neighbor

    I can undersatnd the schools…some in Encinitas, like Ocean Knoll, aren’t top notch. Also, the commute to southern areas is much better than say Encinitas.

    Just a different opinion…people like different things and if you’re happy in CV, that’s all that matters.

  18. MarkinSanDiego

    CapitalGain –

    You are likely right about 20% fighting for survival, but I will still stand by the 20% doing well (doctors,lawyers,Qualcom,SpaWar, etc. etc.). San Diego also attracts a lot of money people for retirement, etc. who can afford the 800K and up homes.

    I am “on the street” every day, and even (gasp!) take public tranit!! (I was just on the trolley yesterday to Lowes). We likely all agree that income inequality sucks these days, but from a real estate standpoint, there will alays be people bidding certain areas up. (Actually, because of income inequality, maybe people in CV will pay extra NOT to live near the have-nots??). To a great extent, the housing stock, is out of sync with income. We need lots more 300K(or less) homes for working people, and fewer 800K (and up) homes.

  19. Dan

    A Neighbor:

    Yes. Ocean knoll is not the best but Encinitas is a free choice district, which means you can transfer to any school.

  20. trolleyman

    Mark – how do you get plywood/drywall home on the trolley?

    And there are plenty of $300k homes….just move out of SD.to quote Sam Kinison “…you live in a desert, move to where the food (jobs) is, I’ll bring the UHaul, we’ll make one trip, OOOHHH. OOOHHH!!!!!!”

  21. vegasandre

    whatever happens in carmel valley stays in carmel valley.

    the area may be a micro market such as Coronado,Manhattan beach and other small niche good school,close to water areas – but they are not immune to the effect of gravity. Some areas just “take awhile” for the full effects to be realized. it may take years. But one thing is certain- the median price or p/per sq ft in 89130 will once again be what it was circa 2001-2002. Same for most other of the micro niche markets. What happened after 2001 in most of california didnt really happen .It is a mirage. It will be a gradual realization of this fact combined with the forces already set in motion that will propel the prices of these areas slowly lower.(for a good read check out dr housing blogs recent post about a area of pasedena)
    On the bright side though if you plan on not moving for a long time – then as long as you have a home you are happy with – none of this will matter too much. good luck to all.

  22. Jim the Realtor

    vegasandre – long time, no see!

    How is the Vegas REO market, have they dried up?

  23. vegasandre

    Hi Jim

    hope all is going well , was down in SD last 2 weeks sailing on my boat. been pretty chilly there this summer-but a welcome relief to summer in vegas.

    the reo market is slow here unless you have a fannie direct account then it is busy.(still working on that)

    Vegas is a posterchild for whats broken right now. I know so many people who arent paying there mtg and WANT THE BANK TO FORECLOSE ON THEM so they can move on or rebuild or whatever- yet the lenders keep postponing on there own accord(without even a word from the homeowner). Its quite amusing to see.

    should be a fun five years or so.

  24. MB Mike

    Cracks me up how totally biased these comments are. How can everyone on this blog interpret Jim’s report of WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING/SELLING any other way than positive? The market for a solid home in a good location is strong. If you are sitting on the sidelines, you will continue to do so.

  25. osidebuyer

    I’m surprised the military is not sending agents into CV to investigate their levitation technology 🙂

  26. CV Asian

    Not suprising to say the least. It’s the case everywhere in every country. It’s all about location location location and proximity to good schools and jobs. Carmel Valley mirrors Irvine to the T.

    So glad I bought or else I would of been still been on the sidelines.

  27. JimG

    It is a strange market in CV, if it has a great lot and decent location and upgrades it is gone quickly. If it is just so so then it will sit for months.The buyers are many and they sit around and wait for that really nice one to come on and then overpay to get.

  28. Not exactly there

    Well, the first propert in the video, sold for 1.2 mil and it is 2900 sft.

    There is a property on greenwillow about 4800sft went back to bank at auction with no bids at a littel over 900K

    what is the disconnect here?
    If a 2900 sft home sold for 1.2 mil in 9 days, would a 4900 sft home not sell for 1.2 in the same 9 days?

    and if it did sell, There are atleast 20 investors at the auction on any day with not less than 5 MIl in casier checks each on any give day. They would have bought it, They did not, because they figured, selling wouldnt be as easy.

    So, I do not understand the disconnect

  29. JimG

    Pretty sure the Greenwillow REO was on the non view side and backed to Carmel Country Road.

  30. The Blur

    Nothing like a good ol’ Carmel Valley discussion to get blood going. It always makes for great claims of insanity and sweeping generalizations. As a renter in CV, I’m taking the side that these people are crazy to pay that much. Nice area, though.

  31. MB Mike

    Classic, JimG. “overpay to get”. I remember when a buddy of mine told me I “overpaid” on my shares of “Apple”.

  32. Jim the Realtor

    5375 Greenwillow did back to Carmel Country, a four-laner getting busier every day. It was on the corner too, so lots of traffic on three sides of you.

    But it’s opening bid shows as $1,102,500. If it was in the $900,000s I think somebody might have gone for it.

    In May, a 3,800sf house on Shannon Ridge sold for $1,005,000, backing to the same road.

  33. Jim the Realtor

    I think the Greenwillow REO was an easy pass for the investors, because it’s more obvious on google maps.

    They have guys cruising past and knocking doors on most of the good ones, but I think there’s potential for them to miss stuff.

  34. Genius

    The smug comments are back in force. Maybe we really are in recovery.

  35. JimG

    Can’t speak to the AAPL trade Mike as I don’t know where you got in but keep your stops tight as this market looks like it’s got another good leg down especially with the GDP numbers getting lowered later this month. As far as Carmel Valley is concerned I rely on 2 ladies who sell alot of homes here and they can stay unnamed as this is JTR’s blog.

  36. David Overfield

    To think Jeeman got 2 acres in RSF for $1.2 million not that long ago.

    Very interesting comparison to 92130.

  37. gentleguitar

    Jim,

    For pacific highland ranch, I heard rumors that the residents there are proposing to prompt building amenities before the 5-56 ramp. I recently went to a friend’s home warming party there, even though we come from the same culture, I still do not understand why people are willing to pay 800+ for a SFH where your neighbor can just wake up and directly look into your every bedroom.

  38. sdbri

    Jim, you’ve seen the stats yourself and posted them. In CV it’s pretty common to see 40%, 60%, even 100% down. Look it up, it’s a stark contrast to the lower end neighborhoods.

    I live in CV and there’s two types of homeowners. The ones leaving because they bought more than they could afford, and the ones buying because they have more cash than you’d imagine and want a certain type of house. I have a few neighbors of the former, and know a ton of people in the latter.

    Take my example. I could have bought twice the house I ended up buying. I can pay off my house in 10 years instead of 30. People make this strange assumption that people in CV are as financially dumb as the people who bought in MM or OC. They’re not.

  39. Kathy

    One thing I have noticed in the CV market is the asking and sell price seem to be much closer now than in the past. Not sure if it is because sellers are pricing more realistic or if offer prices have improved. Jim – any opinion on this? It is shown in the list vs. close price on:
    http://www.sdlookup.com/Closings-92130-Carmel_Valley

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