We’ve seen the trustee-sale stats slowing down, could it be a problem with processing, and a backlog of properties beginning to clog the system? 

According to foreclosureradar.com, since January, 2009 there have been 15,471 SFRs and condos in San Diego County that have had their trustee sale, and gone back-to-bene.  In the same time frame, there have been 14,313 new REO listings hit the MLS, so it appears the processing is keeping up – that’s only a 1,158 difference:

It looks like the servicers are able to handle the current workload, and that it’s purely the banks’ decision to stop foreclosing, and switch to loan mods and short sales instead.

The MLS shows that last month there were 3,288 total sales in San Diego County, with about 40% of them being bank-related (1,953 regular, 684 short-sales, and 651 REOs).

In the second half of 2009, there were 18,646 closings on the MLS, with 43% being bank-related .If buyers flock to the sidelines for the second half of this year, the lower-motivated regular sellers will likely cancel, and the REO and short-sales will likely be moderated by the servicers to maintain calm.

The current inventory count isn’t alarming, but it is growing.  There are 9,444 regular (75%), 2,231 short-sale (18%) and 956 REOs (7%), or a total of 12,631 active listings in SD County currently.

I think we could average 2,000 – 2,500 sales per month for the second half, and still have an orderly market.  Mortgage rates in the mid-4s will help keep buyers interested, and hopefully there will be some discounted quality homes for sale!