Shiller starts at 1:45 of this video, and lays out two historical examples to counter the 2% to 3% improvements predicted by most professional forecasters:

Let’s look at the most recent stats for North SD County Coastal detached homes, under $800,000:

Status # of $/sf DOM
ACT 343 $329 61
PEND 183 $312 42
SOLD 86 $306 55
SOLD “09 85 $285 62

The solds are those that closed between May 24 and June 23, and include the double-dippers, those that could have qualified for both the state and federal tax credit. The actives-to-pendings ratio was most noteworthy, given that those not closed by now could miss out on both tax credits, yet it’s still better than 2 to 1.

Over $800,000 (ineligible for federal tax credit)

Status # of $/sf DOM
ACT 1,019 $639 108
PEND 186 $397 78
SOLD 99 $415 81
SOLD “09 78 $429 74

The above-$800,000 market is where the insanity continues, though the demand has been stronger than last year, comparatively. The silly season should be wrapping up over the next couple of weeks, and those sellers who really want/need to sell, will have to get off their price if they want to close this year.

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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