Yesterday’s article in the U-T suggested that home prices in SD County were rising because the median sales price in 1Q10 had risen 14.7% year-over year.
Are prices rising?
There will always be occasional lucky sales, and a few lowballs that succeed. To identify a solid trend, the best place to look is in tract neighborhoods, and compare model-matches:
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation. Thank you Donna and Jim, Jerry and MaryTrustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years. Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community. In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough! Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale. Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process. For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further! ---Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless. So grateful that I had them on my side!Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. The Good The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market. The Great Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them. The Outstanding We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time. The Truly Exceptional Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs. The Recommendation For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready. Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free. Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.Load more
Great info–I am not surprised that it has not increase in CV (and other upper/middle areas), but I am surprised that it has held so well. Where the numbers are coming from are from lower end places like Escondido (and probably O-side). For example, in the flower streets of Escondido (easy to comp and lots of activity), we made SEVERAL offers on REO starters (3/1 1000sf) that were priced well under $150’s, some as low as $130’s about a year ago–now you rarely see anything listing under $200 (if you do they are completely trashed). Many now list toward $250K, and they are closing in that $200-250K range. That is nearly a 40% increase and they are not having any trouble with appraisals! How are similar areas of O-Side doing–Back Gate?
Keep in mind that Sellers are factoring in a discount. Everybody expects the LP to come down and Buyers will only be satisfied if they’ve gotten the price reduced.
And what’s with the all the denial? Things are getting better and prices are going up. If people can buy now they should, rates hit a low for the year today. We’re back below 5% now.
I think Oceanside is doing the same thing, but I only have one continual measure – I am on auto-notification for detached REOs under $200,000.
A year ago there were several per week, now I might see one per week, and have gone for long stretches with none coming up.
Here are detached stats for Jan thru April in Oceanside:
2009
$0-200K – 99 sales, $146/sf
$2-300K – 161 sales, $182/sf
2010
$0-200K – 30 sales, $167/sf
$2-300K – 114 sales, $200/sf
Might just be due to lack of inventory?
“It’s a yellow… it’s a yellow…”
ha ha ha
The exuberance on list prices already wearing thin with me. Seeing it spread to REO listings is really pushing me over the edge. It’s like the banks expect their next bail out from buyers who’ve been responsible and have lived within their means. We should be willing to donate some of our saved up cash and our ability to pay to helping out the banking system.
I ran some 92027 (Escondido) stats: 3/09-5/09 vs 3/10-5/10. for 2009 62% of total sales were under $200K (many under $150K), in 2010 only 16% have been under $200K (3 under $150K) PSF is +18%.
Hi Jim! Long time no talk. I hope you are well.
You do not give +/- $ for inside condition on those tract homes; why? Is it because those neighborhoods aren’t so old that there is a huge difference between ‘original’ and ‘remodeled’? Or is their no upwards valuation in capital improvements right now? Or is it because of that pricepoint specifically (bigger appetite for $800-$900k w/o remodel than anything above $1.1 regardless of condition?)?
I love the idea of buying scrapers, remodeling and selling homes for a living (which I argue is NOT the same as a flip but, PLEASE posters, let’s save that for another thread)…I would do it in a heartbeat, but the numbers just don’t seem to pan out (in that $800-$1.2 range)…I’ve been tracking this since 2008!
Thanks for your insight on any or all of the above, Jim!
BAM!
I wouldn’t have any idea how to determine what has actually happened to the “value” of our home in the past three years. Online searches have turned up no more than three or four listings since 2007 that are similar to us WRT location, lot size, home size, view, single story, etc. Most of them don’t seem to have ever sold, and have disappeared and then reappeared as “new listings” a few months later several times.
Lots of BPO requests in Derby Hill as of late Jim, some folks maybe be slightly overleveraged if you could imagine….
And what’s with the all the denial? Things are getting better and prices are going up.
A perfect example of cognitive dissonance.
And what’s with the all the denial? Things are getting better and prices are going up. If people can buy now they should, rates hit a low for the year today. We’re back below 5% now.
Mozart | May 13th, 2010 at 9:13 am
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I don’t think anyone is surprised that prices are holding steady or going up. When you consider the fact that **trillions of dollars** have been spent to buy down mortgage and Treasury rates and offer incentives to overpay for housing (tax credits of various sorts, and govt programs to buy up houses)…not to mention all the bank debt guarantees and readjustments of mark-to-market requirements and various “lending facilities” and zero percent interest rates, etc. (enabling them to forestall the foreclosure process)… and the “policy of keeping homes off the market” (as per Barney Frank)…well, it would be crazy to think all of that wouldn’t affect prices.
Some of us would argue that this is exactly why we should NOT buy right now. If the market is so weak that all of these tactics are required just to barely keep things afloat, why would we want to buy?
Personally, I hope and pray for higher interest rates and NO buyer incentives. It’s when rates are screaming high and money is tight that I prefer to enter the housing market.
Trump always preaches that he’d like to buy with “high interest rates and low prices rather than low interest rates and high prices”…
I’ts coming, just remain patient…or focus on the Trustee sales over the next 12 months to find a home. That’s what we’re doing.
“A perfect example of cognitive dissonance.”
Says the blogger who thought the stock market movement from March 09 was just a “bear market rally”…
Yes, and look at Trump’s rollercoaster of a track record!
#12 clearfund-
“Trump always preaches that he’d like to buy with “high interest rates and low prices rather than low interest rates and high prices”…”
What I seek is low interest rates and low prices rather than high interest rates and low prices.
“Says the blogger who thought the stock market movement from March 09 was just a “bear market rally”…”
How long is long enough? Or as that very famous economist suggested, “In the long-run we’re all dead.”
I know a guy would tell you that he’s still down 40-50% because the market has not recovered, and that’s some 10 years later. When did the NASDAQ Composite peak? 2000? He purchased on the way up, but he went all in on the way down. I hope it’s clear that if you are down 40-50% after 10 years, things are not good.
There are similar examples with housing. I know people who purchased in Vegas near the peak, and I estimate they are down 60-70%. One explained, with hand waiving gestures, that there was no way to lose. How long will it take prices in Vegas to recover to peak levels? Hopefully, at least for those who own in Vegas, it’ll take less time than the NASDAQ composite.
No doubt about it, if you had cash and went into the market in March 2009, you’ve done well, but I am not sure how many people went from cash to equity in March 2009. This is almost like suggesting that if you sold stock and purchased a home in 1999, then you’ve done well. And if you sold that home in 2005 and held cash until March 2009 and went back in the stock market, you’ve done very well. I am sure there is at least one person who did this. How much was just plain luck?
The thing about Trump is that he always uses somebody else`s money. And he never mentions how he got started by his father and his father`s money.
JP2 – cant disagree with anything you said. I do however take umbrage with those who so readily dismiss anything that doesnt conform with their worlview as a “blip” or “bull market trap” or “dead cat bounce”. In my mind, to say it is so with the near conviction of the truth of the matter is, well, arrogant.
The fact of the matter is this could be the bottom, and it could be a govt fueled DCB, but to blindly assume it is one, but not the other is foolish. And this gets back to the “long enough timeline” part of your statement.
I know someone who was “near certain” that the bottom of the LA housing market was just a “dead cat bounce”, so they passed on the 1996 prices, because we were “nowhere close to the bottom”.
This person is still renting in 2010. Think that one is gonna turn out well for them?
Orb-
“I know someone who was “near certain” that the bottom of the LA housing market was just a “dead cat bounce”, so they passed on the 1996 prices, because we were “nowhere close to the bottom”.”
This is a classic problem, and directly ties into the whole issue of time and bubbles.
There are two basic strategies to profit:
1. Buy low and sell high.
2. Buy high and sell higher.
I don’t fault anyone who avoids buying high to sell higher, even if prices do go higher.
Great analysis in the video Jim. As fair as can be.
“I don’t fault anyone who avoids buying high to sell higher, even if prices do go higher.”
Thats something my brother should have listened to out on the east coast. He didnt buy in 2002 because people were telling him it was a bubble, and assumed, it must burst soon. Yet, he & his wife watched in terror as prices rose, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006.
Prices did start falling then, but only by about 10%. This was a full 30-40% higher than the price he passed on in 2002. Now, prices are rising once again.
It amazes me to think, he could have bought in a bubble, sell even at the trough, and walk out with hundreds of thousands in cash in his pocket. Instead, he paid probably close to 200K in rent, and very likely has been priced out of his favorite market forever.
Takua- I think you misread what I wrote, but in any event, if your brother would have purchased in 2006, at the peak, then he would have a large loss.
As far as the “he paid probably close to 200K in rent” we don’t know how much he would have paid in an ownership position. What if he would have paid $210k? In such case he’s $10k better off to rent.
“and very likely has been priced out of his favorite market forever.”
The alternate statement is that renting just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper.
During the big rise in the housing market, owners were positively leveraged [=positive yield spread], and if inflation becomes an issue, then those who owe or hold hard assets will make out well. Those who owe and hold hard assets, such as holding a home that’s fully leveraged, will make out very well.
When you can rent for 5 cents on the dollar, why buy?
Takua-The fall hasn’t been consistant from location to location. Las Vegas, as mentioned above, fell a whole lot. The Inland Empire as well-the house I bought in Riverside (to live in, not to flip) was purchased for $400k in 2005 but cost me $150k a year ago. On the other hand, there are places that are down maybe 10% from peak.
Says the blogger who thought the stock market movement from March 09 was just a “bear market rally”…
It was (since it’s very likely over). So what was your point?
Thanks for this video Jim. I’ll probably moving back to SD in 1-2 years and this type of video analysis helps me tremendously. I also agree with your last statement about the summer.
I’m glad I found this great blog!