It looks like servicers are coasting into the HAFA/short-sale era, which officially begins April 5th. Here are the foreclosure stats from the last 12 weeks:
My guess? The HAFA package will encourage borrowers to pick a lane – either loan modification or short-sale. But there are probably enough strategic defaulters to keep it busy down at the court house steps, but so far there have been very few quality properties at attractive opening bids. I’m checking the list everyday, and I haven’t gone down to the ‘steps once this year!
Thank you Jim for providing updates on the foreclosure front lines.
This is really annoying/sad. There’s actual deadbeats not paying their mortgage and there’s intentional deadbeats scamming the system not paying their mortgage b/c they know gov is stupid and will give them what they want.
Using stupid logic I guess it’s temporarily good for the economy that money normally intended for mortgage payments is being spent on living expenses.
It won’t take long for the “free rent” program people to figure out that they can stay in the property much longer if they choose not to short sale and go the foreclosure route. Only thing that will change that group think is if the banks stop the 18 month process and turn it back into a 4-6 month process and of course will the states and current adminstration allow that.
What about Las Plan? Give us scoop!
Sounds like steady here too – they mention that 2Q09 in SD was 38%:
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/03/09/jp-morgan-foreclosure-sales-could-be-higher-in-three-years/
Efforts to modify loans and delay foreclosures may have helped hold down the stock of foreclosures for sale in the second half of 2009, fostering home-price stabilization. But that cure could require different medicine: an elevated level of foreclosures for sale over the next three years.
Analysts from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. are forecasting that bank-owned sales as a share of total home sales will remain at current or even higher levels three years from now in more than half of the nation’s 10 largest housing markets, according to a recent investor presentation.
Bank-owned sales–or “REO,” real-estate owned, in industry parlance—are expected to account for between 39% and 50% of home sales in Phoenix in the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 37% at the end of last year. The REO share of sales in San Diego, where one-quarter of sales at the end of last year were REO, is projected between 24% and 31% three years out.
Is JimG an expert in something? Yes, I’m very curious about the Las Planideras house, as well.
It’s on the market, go look at it.
I looked at it back in November. It was JtR who was asking your thoughts on it.
“I’m checking the list everyday, and I haven’t gone down to the ’steps once this year!”
Similar challenge here in Phoenix. Prices at the trustee sale auction have risen so they are much closer to retail price. Thus it is much more difficult to find great deals.
Like you say Jim, everyone wants a bank deal.
JtR,
I have noticed a disturbing trend in the past few days – the % of scheduled sales being cancelled have increased by at least half. I suspect this coincides with the end of February deadline to fish or cut bait on pending modification applications. Personally, I hate the fact that mods are being given and keeping houses that should be inventory off the market (via the courthouse steps). But some of these will redefault, even with their ridiculously low new terms, so we’ll watch for the retreads 6-9 months from now.
Does this mean the banks/servicers will also now start ramping up the number of sales they actually conduct, instead of endlessly postpoing them? I haven’t seen that in the daily numbers yet.