A few more recent sales around Carmel Valley, and how they compared to model-match sales at peak:
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
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- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
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CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
Huh? *Chuckle* Jim Lingg? Was that a typo or your sense of humor, JtR?
The last bit in Santaluz was hilarious.
Jim, that’s interesting about buyers who cashed out at the peak, rented, and are now buying again. I didn’t think there were that many, but those who did are way ahead of everybody and sitting pretty. You gotta hand it to them for having the fortitude to uproot the family and live with the shame of renting. Good for them. Some people played this perfectly and made a lot of money. It’s tough for first-time buyers to compete with this crowd. What other communities you seeing this in? LJ, DM SB, I’m sure. How about Cardiff, Encinitas and Carlsbad?
I wish I had the opportunity to ride the tide up, but alas I couldn’t get in in time
Well, since Jim’s circling my hood again and you mentioned cashing out, I’ll toss in a tale. My next door neighbor cashed out in ’04. He wanted to sell at the peak, rent for a while, then buy his dream house with a bigger yard. He’s in the world of financial investing and said he saw the calamity coming. I didn’t disagree, but warned him the adjustments that would come would be small for this area, on the order of 10% or maybe 20%, and would be not be the year to correct he was hoping for, but many, many years. I asked if uprooting his wife and child from a location they loved and where the kid had friends was worth it, only to rent to wait it out. He assured me he knew what he was doing. Well, six years later they are still renting. And on their fourth house in that time.
He did walk off with over $300K in gains on the home, but if his former home’s value has dropped in that time it would only be on the order of about 5%. I’d guess he’s blown about 2/3 of the realized gains on rent and moving expenses.
He’s still looking for that dream house at a great discount I guess, and he was actually looking inland, Poway, PQ, etc., places that may have dropped a hair more. Oh yeah, and now he’s got two kids. And they’ll have to move at least one more time before they find that perfect spot.
For my son it worked out great as the new neighbor had a son the identical age and they are now fast friends. Funny how things work out.
What High School do kids in cv go to?
You currently have a choice between Torrey Pines and Canyon Crest Academy.
Was that Oddjob manning the front gate at Santa Luz?
Robo,
Your friend sounds like a fiscally responsible sucker that didn’t think government would bailout the fiscally irresponsible.
I’m sure he learned a lesson. What an idiot!
Hey Jim….
How’s Encinitas west of the 5 doing? I haven’t seen a video on that lately…if you could do that, it would be great. I’m wondering if properties west of the 5 in Encinitas are holding up as well as Carmel Valley.
If you could do that, I would really appreciate it.
Thanks, Joe
“Well, six years later they are still renting. And on their fourth house in that time.
He did walk off with over $300K in gains on the home, but if his former home’s value has dropped in that time it would only be on the order of about 5%. I’d guess he’s blown about 2/3 of the realized gains on rent and moving expenses.”
He’s averaged about $2,750 per month in rent ($200k/72). How much in interest and taxes did he avoid? Let’s consider that 5% of $600,000 is $2,500 per month.
hey Jim, sorry to say this, but that’s a really sorry group of “million dollar homes.”
only in Carmel Valley…
wait, I must be jealous…
ocrenter
the RE maxim pounded on us common folk:
1. Location
2. Location
3. Location
Today, that’s Carmel Valley for us.
In the San Diego area, where’s yours? Just curious.
CV might be holding up well but not much else in SD is right now.
Here is a comp killer in the composer district of Cardiff that just closed
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090041124-92007
Big time deals are happening all over the county for buyers especially those who have 1M to spend.
Dunno about the location thing. Sitting on the 56 in the morning ain’t much fun.
Del Mar Heights has great location but once you get past Del Sur….
What would you rather go for? A tract home in CV for $1.1M with a bit of land or this home for $1.3M in RSF/Covenant. Sure it’s a dated home, but the view was pretty nice when I saw it back in November. It was listed for $1.5M back then.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100014205-15641_Las_Planideras_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067
@jeeman, speaking for myself of course, that is easy. I’d pick CV.
Now, i *might* pick that 1.3M in RSF
– if i dont mind driving 15 minutes to get to I-5
AND
– if my work moves to RSF from Sorrento Valley
AND
– if i dont have school age kids
AND
– if i dont mind mowing lawns and raking leaves
AND
– if i dont mind driving 15 minutes to the grocery
AND
– if i prefer inland
AND
– i have an extra 200k
– and so on (you get the gist)
To each his own.
Jordan Ridge ct is a nice street Jim.
Well, it’s not 15 minutes to the I-5. I can get to El Camino Real and 56 in 10 minutes. I-5 in about 5 minutes.
I’m can’t rebut personal preference because, well, that’s personal preference! But the schools in the Covenant are some of the best for school age kids, however, finding friends on the street will be difficult for them.
Yes, you might have to mow and rake, or just hire people to do it.
Grocery store is closer than I-5 :-).
My commute to east poway is a shave over 30 minutes. Sorrento Valley would be about 15-20 minutes.
You’ve got me on the inland and $200k parts. Those are absolutely true.
This is all from Las Planideras. Other parts of the Covenant are definitely further in and adds to the commute time.
I would take that Cardiff house or the RSF house over Carmel Valley ANYDAY.
Yes, it comes down to personal preferences. Those houses have far more character, privacy and a yard. My kids mean the world to me, and Carmel Valley schools may be a tiny bit better than cardiff or RSF (if you’re just looking at the API numbers), but that’s a tradeoff I’m willing to make. Now if I just had a million dollars to spend…
The Cardiff house that pemeliza noted at comment #12 was sold on the court house steps. The opening bid was $936,000, and was bid up to $1,015,000 – purchased by a third party, probably a flipper.
Not sure why the listing agent marked it sold like a regular listing, because it was not. He had told me while marketing it as a short sale that he wouldn’t submit any offer under $1,200,000. Our buyer thought it needed $100,000+ in work.
That Cardiff place feels much more like a million.
So this is the first strong mention of peak cash-outs sitting on the sidelines. Of all the mantras that get repeated every other post, how was this overlooked as a factor?
Agreed Bob, I like Jordan Ridge too, and don’t blame the buyers for paying $1.1 million. The house has a bigger yard, but could use upgrading – but hey, it’s only money!
I’m hoping JimG will comment about the action on Las Plan (?)
Tract neighborhoods still rule when it comes to holding value in Coastal CA.
Home owners find safety in numbers in homogenized neighborhoods and flock there.
Proof is in Carmel Valley prices.
CVAsian,
I think the sweet spot is 4S.
here’s why:
–excellent and brand new schools
–well planned community with plenty of parks and walking trails
–shopping locations are nearby
–there’s 4 major arteries to get to freeways
–close to all of the IT employment centers around the I-15
the biggest thing is the price drop already occurred. and you can pick up very decent deals and get a much bigger and better house in comparison to other locations nearby such as Scripps/PQ/CV.
The truth is the great majority of people that are drawn to the schools have an unhealthy competitiveness when it comes to that. They ask the question, “what is the #1 school district?” and nothing else. when #2 is so close in quality and is only #2 because statistically one has to account for poorer PUSD areas, that #1 really doesn’t mean that much. if people think outside the box a little, life would not be such a rat race.
JTR, thanks for the clarification on the composer house. That kind of deal would seem ideal for your program but competing with the flippers could be tough.
Pemeliza – Competing against fippers is like shooting fish in a barrel for an end user. Like the Jets playing Chargers (still hurts).
Remember that a flipper has to pay LESS than an end user by exactly amount of profit he wishes to make.
The value of a home is theoretically fixed at ‘market’. A flipper will calculate the market value then subtract his needed profit, cost of repairs, overhead, interest carry, cost of sale, etc. The resulting number is what he is willing to pay. the end user has all those same cost EXCEPT profit,overhead, and cost of sale.
Thus the end user can pay more then the flipper upfront (by the amount of the flippers profit overhead and cost of sale), renovate the home, and arrive at the exact same market value = cost.
That cardiff house of $1mm for a flipper needs $100k+ of costs, plus overhead, plus a sales commission. The flipper therefore must value the house at apx $1.35mm +/-…An end user could pay up to $1.2mm plus $100k of upgrades and end up at the same final cost/value.
So don’t be afraid to battle flippers…just do your homework and watch them get bummed when end users begin invading their turf!!!
ocrenter, I’m with you. I started out my house search by looking for the schools with the highest test scores. Now that I have a kid in school I’ve realized that test scores aren’t everything. You just need to find “good” schools where you like the environment, and “good” means different things to different people.
@ocrenter — if we were looking now, 4S would definitely be in our list to consider, especially since 56 is now open.
Back when we were searching for a house, we even checked out Scripps Ranch Villages east of 805 too. We would have had to cross Mira Mesa twice a day. This was one of the deal killers for us. (yes, we’re spoiled. we hate commutes 😉
also, btw, my forum nick is “Asian in CV”. Just want to make sure that i am not confused with “CV Asian” — apparently, there are two of us asians in CV, though i’ve heard that there are more. 😉
LOL
“We would have had to cross Mira Mesa twice a day”
I think it’d be quicker to park a car on each end, and ride your bike across that stretch of road.
If the 100 stop lights don’t make you pull out your hair, the maze of pot holes surely will.
+1 for 4S; ocrenter summarized it pretty well.
Thanks for the insight clearfund. What you wrote makes JTR’s auction program look even more attractive to the end user looking to score a deal.
Someone used the word flock. I’ll use herd. You know what happens when the herd gets spooked.
4S Ranch sounds like a pretty good substitute to CV. Should it trade at a discount? Yes, but by how much? Derby Hill sells for 1.4-1.6m. There are homes of similar size and finish on Palamino Valley Rd that back up to open space that have sold for well under $1m. Hmmm…
4S Ranch (2009)
Monterey Ridge elementary: 930 API
Stone Ranch elementary: 940 API
Oak Valley middle school: 901 API
Del Norte High: n/a (brand new)
Carmel Valley (2009)
Sage Canyon elementary: 976
Ocean Air elementary: 976
Carmel Valley Middle School: 962
Torrey Pines: 861
I’ve noticed that 4s ranch scores have been trending up. Makes me wonder if the priced-out CV demographic has been buying in 4S. If the API score gap closes in three years, then what?
Shadash and OCRenter you guys crack me up.
I drove through RSF last week for the first time in a while. This is a personal preference statement, but how can anyone truly compare RSF to CV? I mean, really. CV is a great community and is worth a premium, but let’s not confuse it with The Hamptons. Carlsbad is not CV, which is not RSF. There’s a heirarchy here.
I challenge anyone to drive through Rancho Santa Fe and then feel inspired to pay $1.5 million for a tract home where you can high-five your neighbor. I rent in CV, and I’m not jealous of anyone who paid retail here. RSF? Yeah, I wouldn’t mind trading with some of those folks.
Blur – Well said, I’d call the moving van for a RSF delivery in a minute if the opportunity presented itself.
Hmmmm… newer cracker-box McMansions crammed together on postage stamp sized lots vs. older true custom-built estate properties. Decisions, decisions… 😉
The CV tracts offer newer product that is perceived to be in good condition.
Most buyers aren’t familiar with repairing/improving a house, and won’t get out of their car when they see a 1970’s ranch that needs total overhaul.
In all fairness, there are some nice estates in CV. Problem is for the price of them you could buy a big place on the coast.
CV turns me off. RSF, however, rawrrrrr.
That cardiff house of $1mm for a flipper needs $100k+ of costs, plus overhead, plus a sales commission. The flipper therefore must value the house at apx $1.35mm +/-…An end user could pay up to $1.2mm plus $100k of upgrades and end up at the same final cost/value.
So don’t be afraid to battle flippers…just do your homework and watch them get bummed when end users begin invading their turf!!!
clearfund | March 9th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
—————————-
Exactly. This is why I’d love to see Jim’s idea take off. It would kill the flippers in an instant, and real homeowners would finally be able to buy homes where they could raise their families and fix them up to their own liking — without having to pad the pockets of parasitic flippers.
One of the tactics we used in buying our fairly modern RSF ranch home was “the amount of money we need to use to update it”. It’s an early ’90s mix of Tuscan decoration and white-washed wood. Move-in ready and decent to live in, but just not updated.
It wouldn’t take more than $100k to update it to the style we want.
Although by RSF standards, one neighbor is a bit close, we still can’t see their house unless we try hard. After living all my life knowing what time my neighbor leaves for work in the morning, it’s nice not to hear anything nowadays.
I don’t know…CV is decent. Just not for the current price. If there was a modern 3600 sqft home for $800k, we would have gone for that. Just not for $1.1M when there were better areas to be had for that price.
RSF vs CV Mc Mansion:
The old used Mercedes costs a fortune to fix. Might make the new Lexus hybrid worth leasing.
Jeeman,
How do you deal with the lack of neighbors for kids, though (assuming you have kids)?
We love RSF and O’hain, but are trying to come to terms with the fact that there is no “neighborhood” there.
While we don’t ever see ourselves buying tract McMansions on tiny lots (yuck!), we like something in between that and what you have.
Do you ever feel lonely out there?
We just moved in, and yes, that was a big negative. We don’t have kids on our street, which only has 10 homes. But we do drop him off with our best friend who watches him while we work…she has 2 kids. We’ll see how it goes.
We have alot of friends, but the closest are 15 minute drives (off of Camino Del Sur). So we will have to rely on that for now.
Hope you guys enjoy RSF, and congratulations on your new home. 🙂
Yes, it seems like everyone out there has to rely on their cars to do anything. Not sure if we could take that kind of solitude. Please let us know how you acclimate, and if you find a way around the social scene.