What is the difference between peak pricing and today?
Many considered that 2006 was the peak of the market in 92130, here is a youtube tour of a few recent sales, and how they compared to previous comps:
Hat tip to Rob who sent this in:
SAN DIEGO — The safest place to live in San Diego includes parts of Rancho Peñasquitos and Carmel Valley, according to a new study by a private company.
NeighborhoodScout, a company that specializes in helping families and businesses make relocation decisions, took a variety of crime data from the nation’s 50 largest cities and came up with a ranking of 1 to 100, with 100 being the best score. It recently posted an article on WalletPop.com that scored Rancho Peñasquitos/Carmel Valley at 97. The chance of becoming a victim of crime in the area — which included ZIP codes 92130, 92129 and 92121 — was listed as 1 in 769.
Data included reports from local agencies and the FBI and looked at violent and property crimes, including murder, rape, theft and burglary. According to the study, the nation’s average crime index is 50. The company’s Web site said the area around and west of Carmel Mountain and Black Mountain roads is in the top 15 percent of the nation’s wealthiest communities and has a median home value of $746,668.
So, is it just the hot school district Carmel Valley that is holding? What about west of I5 in Leucadia? Is that not holding?
Could it be that school district is more powerful than close to ocean?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????/
Great video Jim.
Mahalo, Jim, for your discussion about pending prices. I’ve never understood why pendings are such a closely-held secret by agents. I don’t find it unethical at all. I think it’s imperative for BOTH sellers and buyers to know what homes are selling for and not wait up to 30 days for closings.
(I also don’t understand why buyers and sellers can’t meet during escrow, but that’s another discussion for another day.)
*Grin* And was that an ice cream truck I saw??? Any Haagen Dazs bars for me?
Agents don’t tell you what its closing for just in case it falls out of escrow. Maybe the next guy will pay more.
I don’t like it but it makes sense.
I will not start a 90 comment thread today. This link is all facts. It is the sales price of every home sold in San Diego between 1997 to January 2010. It is updated about the 25 every month. Listed by years, zipcode, then alphbetical. Enjoy.
http://users.ixpres.com/~gtriphan/
Where is the ~ symbol. Top left corner of keyboard.
Jim,
I think a lot of the buyers who paid 1.75 plus for those Promotories up on those big view lots in 2005-2007 wish they could still get those prices. Same a lot of the mega-mansions around Ashley Falls as well as view Lexington’s. Most are stuck and you won’t see those come to market as they have the dough to stick it out. The folks who have the low cost basis can sell and take a smaller profit then what they could have sold for at the peak.
I agree – and this post is prelude to what I think will be a spring where CV sellers will be listing for peak pricing and higher, so I want to start laying it out.
Let’s note that JimG is a competing realtor in CV.
Worm,
We dig the 90-comment threads, don’t hold back man!
Bob,
The agents who hang onto that thought haven’t had many listings fall out of escrow lately. Sellers usually want more the second time around.
How about condos in CV? My understanding is that is a totally different picture. Can you confirm ?
“guilty of committing transparency” that made me laugh.
I’m starting to see lots of relisted houses at higher prices than the numbers sellers didn’t get last fall. I wonder how many are deadbeats that could care less what number they list at?
Carmel Valley prices definitely seem to be defying gravity.
Shadash – You are correct. I am tracking a trustee sale in the general vicinity with a balance of low $1mm’s and the owners just listed for over $3mm….its only worth $1.8mm IMHO…
Guess they are begging and trying to show a low LTODPOV (Loan To Owners Distorted Perception of Value)
Thanks for the link, worm.
A quick search on Redfin produced the following:
In 92130 there are currently 135 detached MLS listings over $1 million, and only 60 under – a 2.25 ratio of OVER $1M.
However, in the last 3 months there have been just 52 closings over $1m, to 105 under – a 0.5 ratio.
Maybe not enough data to conclude the market isn’t holding, but it makes a compelling case IMO. This spring will be interesting.
Thanks for the headstart!
I only have 91 detached actives over $1M in 92130, who knows where the glitch is.
91 ACT, avg LP = $412/sf, 93 DOM
4 short sales
1 REO
It looks like there are plenty of elective sellers, for now.
Over $1 million:
7 CONT avg LP = $357/sf (5 short sales)
19 PEND avg LP = $346/sf (2 REOs)
91/26 = 3.5 not bad for the million-plus club during recession.
Y-O-Y Det. Closings $1M+
2009: 14 $364/sf 81 DOM
2010: 18 $340/sf 73 DOM
Worm’s link doesn’t include property details, but here’s a sample.
I think we can say, based on the current action, it would seem to be a stretch for these folks to break even today.
It goes to show you that Results May Vary:
2006
14006 Caminito Vistana $2,251,500
14007 Caminito Vistana $2,100,000
14014 Caminito Vistana $2,340,000
14087 Caminito Vistana $2,450,000
14114 Caminito Vistana $2,450,000
14210 Caminito Vistana $2,050,000
14216 Caminito Vistana $2,250,000
14219 Caminito Vistana $2,350,000
2010:
14109 Caminito Vistana $1,895,000 ACT
14006 Caminito Vistana $1,975,000 ACT
14106 Caminito Vistana $1,799,000-$1,990,000 ACT
14059 Caminito Vistana $1,895,000-$2,195,000 ACT
14219 Caminito Vistana $1,850,000 CONT
14224 Caminito Vistana $1,775,000 PEND
14121 Caminito Vistana $1,925,000 SOLD 10/19/09
Condos? You’d think that the condo market would be left for dead by now.
The new rule about having to have less than 10% of the homeowners in default on their HOA dues will be around for a while, and I could see lenders adopting it permanently.
But sellers might figure out who is in default and send in $1,000 or so to pay dues on their behalf, until it gets under 10%.
If you have a condo in mind, let me know, but the marker for me is the 1,078sf townhouse at Sunstream. They are old, skinny, and small, but have their own 2-car garage, yard, and good location.
There were four that sold at the peak (’05-’06) at $495,000 or higher.
Eight have closed between $400,000 and $450,000 since 1/1/07.
Only two have closed under $400,000 since the peak, $391,000 and $399,000, both in mid-2009.
I would have thought for sure that a few more would be under $400,000 by now!
Two actives with same price currently, here’s one:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100009009-12526_Caminito_Mira_Del_Mar_St_San_Diego_CA_92130
Jim, your stats are surely more accurate than Redfin. The 2009 vs 2010 numbers suggest sellers are getting more realistic, settling for 6% less than last year and over a week quicker. Hopefully (for buyers) that’s a trend.
Great video and info as always!
Jim, is it me or does it seem like folks gravitate toward areas without significant drop in prices. it is as if the price has not dropped yet, the place must be immune, and therefore I can feel safe buying here.
when really, the mentality should be: buy at areas where the drop has occurred because you know there’s a much lower downside risk!
case in point, in 2000 you could potentially buy very similar homes for almost the exact price in 4S and CV:
11239 Corte Belleza, 92130 at 3277 sqft
12/05/2000: $561,900
10853 La Alberca, 92127 at 3173 sqft
10/30/2000: $543,000
yet today there’s a huge price differential primarily because the bubble popped in 4S but not yet in CV. That $1.2 million house on Plummer if located in 4S would fetch $850-900k tops. Can we honestly say CV of today has moved closer to the beach or suddenly got better schools in comparison to 2000? Is 4S hotter now or more crime ridden or has worse schools in comparison to 4S in year 2000?
don’t buy in Carmel Valley, the downside risk is way too high!
You could make the same, or better case, about the risk of a double-dip recession, but the CV demand has been unyielding so far.
The CV/4S substitution effect can be examined here:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100013684-16207_Deer_Ct_San_Diego_CA_92127
If your only experience of local real estate was 92130, and you went to see this house, you’d think you’d hit the jackpot. The 3,800sf tract houses on west-facing canyon + culdesac lots in CV would be at least $1.3M.
But if you were willing to drive an extra 15-20 minutes and be in Poway schools, you could get the same for $999,000.
Could CV be pulling up the demand/pricing for places like South 4S Ranch? If the house above sells in the next 1-2 weeks, maybe?
Jim, that works out to a $1700/month difference on the mortgage.
I know CV buyers, these are not old money folks. these are hard working, dual income professionals that generally pull in $250-300k a year and deal with 35% income tax rate and if they deduct too much they end up with the AMT. These are not guys that can just blow $1700/month without a blink of the eyes.
OCRenter,
If a family is making $300k/year, they must have some money saved up. So assume they put down 20%. So now you’re looking at a $1.05M mortgage. With fees and taxes and all that, it’s around $8000/month. $300k/year is $25k/month in income. So you are looking at about 33% of their income going to housing.
Prop taxes are subject to AMT, but not mortgage interest. Mortgage interest is deductible up to loan amounts of $1M, so it’s safer to assume that a family making $300k/year has already saved up $300k to put down to get under the $1M limit.
Don’t get me wrong, I believe those properties are way overpriced for the zip-code, but that could stay very sticky for a long time.