The ratio of active listings to pendings has been a decent gauge of the market’s relative health.
Here’s our scorecard, historically, of the ACT/PEND ratio:
0-2 Hot market
3-4 Regular market
5-6 Market in trouble
7-8 Too many choices
9+ Freefall
Here are the active and pendings listings:
| Town or Area | ACT Reg | ACT SS | ACT Reo | ACT Total | CONT/PEND | A/(C+P) |
| Carlsbad | ||||||
| RB West | ||||||
| Carmel Valley | ||||||
| EncinitasCrdff | ||||||
| La Jolla | ||||||
| RSFDMSB |
The market is smoking hot when actives-to-pendings ratios are under 2:1 in a number of areas. The restricted inventory is the cause, and now a primary market indicator. But if inventories start to increase, some pent-up demand may gobble them up – where does it start to balance (or tip over)?
JTR, do you think that the ratios hold true in a supply constrained market? Or is supply constrained because too many potential sellers can’t list/sell at a price above what they paid or owe – i.e. the move up buyer/seller is sidelined. Because normally you’d also expect that declining sales volume precedes declining prices, but can that hold true in a supply constrained market? The times, they are a confusin.
“where does it start to balance (or tip over)?”
So much of this question depends on what price range you are talking about. In 92103 there have been 4 closed (detached) sales over 1 million during the three month period from November through January. There are currently 32 actives over 1 Million (half of the total listings) for a total of 2 years worth of inventory. The sellers’ are ever optimistic as there have been remarkably few price reductions. Not many distressed sales in 92103 so buyers’ are finding better options elsewhere.
Banks postpone foreclosures, Deadbeats live for free. Prices go up because nothing is available to buy. Something about socialism doesn’t feel right.
Can anyone recommend a good Tax Accountant that specializes in 1031 exchanges and loopholes?
Thanks.
Julie Cardin in Carlsbad, (760) 434-1040 (love that number).
http://www.1040-help.com/bio.html
She is an attorney too, but conservative, she’s not a rule-bender.
Sean,
I think the ratios reflect the environment, which seems just like 2003 – the only thing missing are rapid price increases.
If the data for new home sold by builder is included, the ACT/PEND ratio may be even smaller for area such as Carmel Valley. Pardee sold at least 15 SFH within last month and at least 20 more townhouses in the Carmel Country Highland. If the same amount of SFH was sold in the Pacific Highland Ranch. The ACT/PEND ratio should be as close as Carlsbad’s 1.2.
Is there pent up demand? Where?
I know that short sales are getting multiple offers, but buyers are making offers on 5-10 houses at a time.
That’s what I’ve seen and heard. Do you hear different things?
chuck
Chuck –
That is what my wife and I have been doing on all the short sales we like Carlsbad, Encinitas and Carmel Valley. We’ve put in at least 10 bids at the same time and price ranging from lowballs to way over listing prices in the 600-800k price range.
Chuck,
Not just hearing it, I’m involved with it.
I have dozens of buyers waiting patiently (1-15 months) that are actively looking, but can’t get their hands on anything decent. The quality properties sell immediately, and for more than we think they should.
Pendings from this month, none are shorts:
4167 Calle Mar de Ballenas, 92130
3br/3ba, 2,016sf LP:$838,000 DOM:3
Ocean view from deck only, and backyard was 10-15 ft deep.
10976 Cloverhurst, 92130
5br/3 ba, 2,567sf LP: $950,000 – $1,025,000 DOM:2
Nicely kept with decent 20-25 ft yard that backs to canyon.
13500 Ginger Glen, 92130
4br/4ba, 3,187sf LP: $1,037,500 DOM:19
The REO with painted green grass that I said on video should list for $925,000 – they had four offers the first week, probably went over list price.
5701 Cape Jewels, 92130
5br/5ba, 3,622sf LP: $1,230,000 DOM:13
A nice, newer tract house in PHR with a 10ft deep yard that backs right to Del Mar Heights Rd.
How’s that? There are many more.
I vote CV as the least rational market.
IMO active to pending doesn’t count right now, at least not as an indicator relative to previous times. When there’s no manipulation of supply it may once again be a useful metric.
Then again, what would be a useful measure in times like these? I can’t think of any condition which has stayed consistent between 5 years ago and today.
JTR,
What is the short sale situation in your contingent/pending counts?
I’m seeing ratios of 2:1 in the neighborhood I’m looking at also, but short sales are dominating the contingent/pending list 2:1 and every SS going active goes contingent/pending pretty quick so very few active SS.
So even though the total active:pending ratio in my area is 2:1, if you eliminate SS from both the active and pending numbers, you are looking at a ratio more in line with 6:1. That’s quite a swing, especially if certain buyers are the designated buyers on mulitple short sale offers. Per your table, you would go from a hot market to one in trouble.
We’ve been looking to buy in CV for quite some time. In our price range (<850K), there are 24 active and 38 pendings for detached homes…active:pending ratio of 0.63. Unbelievable…