Builders pose another threat to neighborhood pricing:
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
- klingerealty@gmail.com
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
That’s why its called FORECLOSURE RANCH !!
Hah. I just found that house I was mentioning the other day.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Long-Beach/5902-Lemon-Ave-90805/home/7512081
They have the cojones to list that thing at $283k. Saying it “needs some TLC” is an understatement. We looked again today. The kitchen has been completely ripped out. Not a cabinet left. The 2 car garage needs a new door, the fence is rotting and the yard needs to be scraped to the dirt. Lord knows what condition that roof is in, considering the rest of the house. Carpets are appalling. Kitchen tile is cracked and completely destroyed – I’d bet the bathroom is not much better. New owner is looking at $40 – $50k easy. I wonder if this was a trash-out…sure looks that way.
I can officially say my new home has been on a JimTV video. Maybe only a couple pixels, but it counts.
I was one of the folks who purchased one of the Monteluz (the larger sister property 8,000 to 10,000 sqft lots) during the phase 1 release. The floorplan absolutely blew us away; everything we’ve been looking for the last few years that they just haven’t built in CV.
Comes out roughly to ~$200/sqft. Equivalent homes in that area were going for over 1 million during the peak, now in the low 700’s. Enough of a haircut for me to ditch my ~$30,000/year rent and put some money somewhere other then a 2% savings account.
Phase 1 release day there were well over 150 people there which was prior to the grand opening. Since then, I’ve lost track at the number of people I’ve talked to who are now on the waiting list and every time I’m there (which is a lot) more people are signing up.
To echo Jim’s comments, for the next ~2-3 years why would you bother with a resale when you can get something larger, nicer, brand new and (now) … significantly cheaper around the corner.
My one regret is I was unable to use Jim as an agent as they unfortunately got our name via an email.
I can’t believe people pay $500/mo for mello roos.
“I can’t believe people pay $500/mo for Mello Roos”. Blur, as a 4 year resident of 4S Ranch I can tell you on the surface that the MR fees seem high. However, if you care about beautiful new schools in Poway USD, lots of state of the art parks, a huge Boys and Girls Club, and a community shopping center and gym that most of the area can reasonably walk to then it doesn’t sting as much. At least you can actually see and use the amenities that your fees paid for.
Makes me glad I live in a neighborhood where no one cares whether I drive a Cavalier or a Carrera.
I don’t get that pricing either. If we are seeing low/mid $200/sf pricing in 92009 for coastal Oaks/Bressi/Greens/Aviara with lower MR I would think that 92009 wins out hands down (unless you work for Sony/HP/etc on the 15 frw).
I would think 4s attractive at 200/sf tops…downward pressure for sure.
Look at the school districts in 92009 vs. the Poway School district. Also factor in 4S is walking/biking distance to brand new top of the line schools at every grade level and community centers SD Surf dog mentioned. And it’s only a couple minutes further commute to Sorrento Valley vs. CV.
Compared to the $600K Townhomes in CV…
I love seeing the support for 4S, and thank you sdnerd for the kind remarks.
I appreciate the hat tip.
A simple acknowlegement that, even though I didn’t get the pleasure of being your agent, at least I was able to contribute a little something along the way. Enough that if you had the chance, you’d let me help.
Contrast that with W.C., guy who puts a consistent and loyal drubbing on the real estate market for months or years here on bubbleinfo, blows up my ‘name that band’ contest, and then drops the bomb that he bought a house…..and I don’t get a nod, let alone a phone call.
I’ll live with either.
An old man once told me, “Your thanks is in your paycheck”. I never liked the way it felt, but I learned to live with it.
La Costa Canyon HS and Olivenhain Pioneer/Diegueno are pretty much contenders for top tier schools in the County and they are 92009 (granted the SM schools for the Greens are inferior so that neighborhood is not as desirable on the school issue).
Sure there are good things about the 4S area as there are good parts of most areas (it is san diego afterall).
However, one would expect some pricing spread between nearly equal coastal track boxes near the 5 vs. track boxes near the 15.
Contrast that with W.C., guy who puts a consistent and loyal drubbing on the real estate market for months or years here on bubbleinfo, blows up my ‘name that band’ contest, and then drops the bomb that he bought a house…..and I don’t get a nod, let alone a phone call.
Heh, I’ve been hesitant to post that I’ve bought a house because I feel somewhat bad about not giving you a a chance. I didn’t have that much of a choice in my case for a couple of reasons. I wasn’t for sure buying in the area you typically sell in, and my aunt happens to be a great agent herself. If she wasn’t any good, I would have called Jim.
Anyways, it may sound like I changed my mind on real estate because I wanted to buy, but it feels the opposite way. A lot of the data points to fairly affordable housing on a historical level for San Diego. My caveat is that I have no clue what’s happen to the high end, but I’m not in that market.
Agreed there are some strong schools for the right communities, which should lead to a decent closer-to-water premium. Too far north for our jobs personally.
I don’t see MR as a monthly cost, I factor it into the total price mentally. A ~$50/psf spread for equivalent track boxes a few miles closer to the water makes the $7-800K 4S a 9-1mil 92009 home (all in).
I presume the 700K price range has a much greater buyer pool, as that is affordable for two modest salaries. I believe, and from what I’ve seen supports that as inventory gets into that price range it will get gobbled up.
Prices got absurd during the bubble, at the same time some areas really did build out nice communities and greatly improve their respective area.
IMHO it’s all going to be about inventory, and how much is the house you love – and is it even (really) on the market regardless.
Andalusa, Monteluz, Chanteclair, and Terramar as far as I know all sold out their latest phases within a few hours. Not many short sales or organics on the market. So I think, and I could be wrong – there will be pretty good support for prices in the current range +/- a small amount for new construction and short sales alike.
And Jim you get more then my online hat-tip; you get my recommendation to all my friends and everyone who asks for a RE referral. Hopefully you hear the words ‘sdnerd sent me’ a few times in the future. 🙂
Are the 4S schools worth the extra cost?
Cathedral Catholic High School (private) = $11,675.00 per year
La Jolla Country Day School (private) = $24,511 per year
Granted the schools listed above make you grovel and beg for them to accept you. But, If you’re justifying $500 hoa costs with the school services received you might as well compare apples to apples.
“Contrast that with W.C., guy who puts a consistent and loyal drubbing on the real estate market for months or years here on bubbleinfo, blows up my ‘name that band’ contest, and then drops the bomb that he bought a house…..and I don’t get a nod, let alone a phone call.”
Get a rope…
I’ve also read horror stories about MR not being used for its intended purpose. Isn’t PHR in CV dealing with that (remember the park?) I also remember controversy in LCV because somehow MR was going to be used for low-income housing instead of a school. Not sure what happened there, but anyway I’d be PO’d to pay MR if this happened in my ‘hood. With CA in so much financial trouble, I wouldn’t put it past a municipality to shift those tax dollars elsewhere.
Shadash’s point about private schools is a good one: you know exactly where your money’s going, and you only pay it while your child attends that school.
But it is nice to hear people satisfied with the use of their MR. As a buyer, it’s hard to find a newer area without it. $500/mo is a lot, though.
How long does it take to walk from 92009 to La Jolla Country Day or Cathedral? What if your kids can’t get in? And now you have the additional cost of private school on top of the premium and your kids aren’t in school with their neighborhood friends (good chance at least). How much are those schools going to cost in 5 years, 10 years, 15 years? Plus you are now driving all over town for after school events, etc.
Compared to having all the top tier schools at each grade level literally right around the corner from your home, that your kids get into without issue, with the rest of the community.
I personally wouldn’t consider that apples to apples; but even if you did just factoring in gas money and after-work hassles alone that $400/mo MR is starting to look pretty cheap. Then start factoring in everything else like parks, gyms, shopping, etc…
My personal answer is yes $400-500/mo is more then worth it. IMHO that’s pretty cheap for what you get.
As long as you buy in the parts of 92009 that are in the Carlsbad or San Dieguito school district, you won’t have to send your kids to private school. However it looks like most of the new developments are in the San Marcos school district.
I excluded areas with Mello Roos, excess buyer approved bonds (San Elijo Hills) and HOA above $80. Parents/Kids walk the same sidewalk to an Encinitas Elementary school and for San Dieguito middle school kids cross two three neighborhood streets – not bad. All this close to all the shopping you want, except Costco – but that is a monthly trip 🙂
“However it looks like most of the new developments are in the San Marcos school district.”
Oh the horror…
#4. “I can’t believe people pay $500/mo for mello roos.”
I can’t believe people go on a “waiting list” for anything besides a vital body organ.
JTR, me and DW were working with another agent for 12 months before I stumbled onto your site. While we did purchase in Mission Hills last fall, if we ever move again we will be giving you a call. We are keeping a close eye on the composer district in Cardiff.
Paying $400-500/month for mello roos is pretty crazy when you’re already paying >$600k for a house. But… apparently people are willing to buy at that price.
The question is are people walking in with large downpayments? Otherwise is their income really that high that they can support a the mello roos on top of the $500k mortgage at jumbo rates?
This is the cheapest “reasonably new” house in LCC High area of Carlsbad:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/8081-Camino-Montego-92009/home/6540071
$273/sf, slightly lower mello-roos, the same 10 foot distance between houses. You’re closer to the coast, but further from everything else (say, downtown, or your job if you work south of 56).
There is activity in low-200’s in Bressi and Rancho Carrillo, but those are in San Marcos district and even further into the middle of nowhere.
And, if you want to combine good schools, proximity to civilization, and proximity to the coast, you’re looking at low to mid 300’s per square foot (Carmel Valley).
@shadash You have to live somewhere, too. Many things you pay for the house are tax deductible; private school tuition is not. If you do the math accurately, accounting for tax deductions, payments to principal, etc., (assuming decent family income, say, 150k/year), it’ll turn out that it’s cheaper to buy a smaller house in 4S Ranch and send one kid to PUSD schools, than to live in a cardboard box under the bridge and send one kid to LJCDS.
FYI – Bressi is in the Carlsbad school district (kids go to the new Poinsettia elementary)…
Not to beat a dead-horse since this discussion has been made multiple times in these parts, but looking only at the elementary and middle schools in La Costa/ SEH and 4s:
La Costa Elementary (San Marcos) API 2009 growth 883, 2008 base 887
La Costa Heights (Encinitas) – API 2009 growth 895, 2008 base 892
SEH elementary – API 2009 growth 932, 2008 base 897
SEH Middle – API 2009 growth 890, 2008 base 850
4s Ranch:
Stone Ranch – API 2009 growth 940, 2008 base 920
Monterey Ridge – API 2009 growth 940, 2008 base 894
Oak Valley Middle – API 2009 growth 901, 2008 base 897
I didnt include high schools. You can say what you want about SMHS but the majority of residents in 4s and SEH have kids in elementary and middle school and those numbers for the high school should change for the better. The new high school in 4s should pull students from Westview and Carmel Mtn which should lower their scores. I suspect the scores for the new high school to be solid, and SMHS to be very close.
Does this justify higher prices inland with high MR? I dont think so.
Sorry – SMHS to be very close when the current elementary/ middle schoolers in Carlsbad/ SEH/ Discovery/ Via (whatever its called) start hitting high school.
Also, Carlsbad is preparing to begin construction soon (nimby gripers aside) on the new CBAD high school on ECR and Cannon(?)…anyway, boundaries are not drawn yet, however, one expects the new HS to serve the southern part of CBAD SD including Aviara, Bressi, etc…
That is of no concern if your kids are older, but for the Kindergarten aged kids, it will seem like the school has been there forever and will be established by then (for better or worse).
I spoke with someone at the Carlsbad school district who said she thinks the new high school will be lottery based, like the San Dieguito Academy in Encinitas.
You can no longer depend on ‘we will build it’. Ashley Falls school in Del Mar may close in hard times – this is a Mello Roos supported school. Guess how many parents thought their choice of neighborhood was solid at the time.
From DMT:
…So far it has seven scenarios that it is looking at: closing Del Mar Hills, reconfiguring schools into kindergarten through third and fourth through sixth, and closing a Mello Roos supported school such as Ashley Falls. A new option, which would not require closing schools, was proposed Monday….
Ex-4s Renter:
IT’S A FACT – KIDS THAT GO TO SCHOOLS WITH HIGH API SCHOOLS ALL BECOME DOCTORS AND LAWYERS!
ALL KIDS THAT GO TO SCHOOLS SOUTH OF I8 AND SCHOOLS WITH API’S LOWER THAN 850 BECOME BUMS AND WELFARE RECIPIENTS
You give parents a LITTLE bit of knowledge with the API scores and they go “stupid”
Api is not everything. Teachers in those schools are not necessarily “better”
Here’s something to consider about “lesser” schools…
If you’re kid gets average grades at a “good” school. They’re likely to get above average grades at a “lesser” school.
Colleges don’t always consider the school a student attended compared to the grades they’ve earned.
This means good grades at a “lesser” school are likely to open more college admittance doors then average grades at a “good” school.
But, in the long run it’s always best to learn as much as possible. Cheaters are only cheating themselves.
Bob #31 – Lawyers and Bums are redundant.
@ Shadash,
…’Cheaters are only cheating themselves.’
Pause and think about that statement for a minute 😀