Here’s a snapshot of reality – though somewhat extreme, even by today’s standards.
The first clip shows the difference between sales of a single-story, and a two-story house on the same street, that closed a month apart.
The second shows a new short-sale listing that has an extra kicker. The two mortgages exceed $1.1 million, and will be an agonizing grind to complete. When/if the short-sale is approved (which might be a stretch at the low asking price), the buyer will be asked to sign a form stating that they are not aware of any side agreements:
The insanity *does* have to stop, but we — as a country — have adopted a posture of disallowing failure. As long as that cultural paradigm persists, nobody believes they can actually fail and if they come close, ultimately, someone will rescue them. IOW, nobody thinks they have anything to lose. And if one has nothing to lose, the reward outweighs the risk. Now let’s throw in some unscrupulous activity because just in case this all comes crashing down, at least we’ve cashed in. Want it all, want it now. It’s the perfect recipe for a bubble.
Bear in mind that the current situation was caused by the bailouts. If banks were allowed to fail houses would have already started appearing on the court house steps at reasonable prices. Allowing EVERYONE with available resources the ability to buy. Rewarding those that stayed out of all the madness.
Now we’re being forced to become one of the mob. If you want to buy a house. And the rich get richer.
This REO had an open house yesterday. $2.2 million and they’re going to build a motel completely blocking your view.
“This insanity’s got to stop!” (JtR)
I’m always curious what your last few comments will be on your videos, Jim. Will they be serious or humorous? Sometimes I just want to fast forward to the end. But I refrain as there’s just so much awesome info beforehand, and the anticipation makes it worthwhile.
Thankfully–this time–my coffee stayed where it should and didn’t have a chance to escape onto my keyboard throughout the entire video…
PS. Happy Valentine’s Day to you and your family, Jim. And to Bubbleinfo addicts everywhere!
We were actually looking at this house yesterday and have put in an offer way over asking price. Shame I have a feeling the deals already been done under the table though. It’s such a gorgeous home.
I month or so ago I commented that I’d film the Phoenix trustee sale auction so that you all could compare it to SD.
The action was a little slow, only 2 trustees when I got there. Still entertaining though as one guy is bidding on two properties simultaneiously (and actually buys one).
Clearfund mentioned a few days ago about buying at the Phoenix auction, here’s the envronment he’s seeing.
I did get up close so you could here the bidding.
Phoenix foreclosure trustee sale LIVE!
Good video David….110 in the summer is right…exactly why I am fortunate to be on the Carmel Valley end of that telephone bidding process with my contractor partner in the heat…
Actually have been losing out to a few higher priced properties (300k-800k) lately which has been a bit of a surprise as I thought I was the only one overpaying!
Example: Friday: gross home value in Greyhawk of 740k (on the course) and the opening was $477k. I was willing to go to $550k at the sale plus incurr sales cost, rehab, fees, risk, etc. But it got bid up to $626k…
To me $740 minus $50k of sale cost – rehab budget of $30k plus fees for the efforts of $25k leaves a profit of $20k….must be a “JTR Trustee Sale East” program buyer as I don’t see risking that capital at that price….and so it rolls along.
ps: JTR – comment #7 meant a JTR “end user” could afford to pay that price as they are not chasing yield vs. a greedy profit seeker/flipper (aka my group)…at that price it is a good deal or the end user…
You can feel the tension out there looking at homes; selling agents complaining about buyers and lenders; buyers glaring at each other in passing as they compete for limited deals; sellers clinging to their wishing prices; neighbors blasting diesel fumes and C+C Music Factory in an attempt to sabotage open houses.
And it’s not just in the housing market; you can feel the tension in the stock and bond markets; currencies and commodities markets. You can feel it in Washington and internationally. You hear about companies no longer matching 401(k)’s, sales professionals being forced to take vacations.
It’s everywhere. Yesterday the flower shop in the Del Mar Highlands Plaza next to Jimbo’s wanted $95 plus tax for a dozen roses. While I expect to be taken for a ride buying flowers around Valentine’s Day, I had no option but to walk out. I wasn’t alone. As I exited, I noticed the sign on the window stating the shop will soon move to a less desirable location – probably another casualty of the shopping center raising rents, ala “Los Cabos” Mexican Restaurant.
There’s an attitude shift happening right now. And for the responsible people, our time is coming. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month or year, but soon. I’m ready to buy, but not impatient. Opportunities will come. In the words of the immortal John Wooden, “be quick but never in a hurry.” The shenanigans will end soon; agents puling scams; flippers turning $200k profits; investor ponzi schemes; government bailouts; Wall St. executive pay; the USC athletic department giving homes, Land Rovers, and envelopes full of cash to their star players.
Many readers here wonder if they’ll ever benefit from being responsible, and I think the answer is, “yes, and soon.” There’s an attitude shift and you can feel the tension everywhere. The responsible ones are beginning to take leverage.
Blur,
My internal perception of what’s right and what’s wrong in the world hopes that you’re right.
My realist side isn’t as excited. As long as banks and the gov can borrrow to cover every bet they make the small guy swimming against the stream can’t win.
Shadash, I, too, have similar sentiments as you posted in your (#10) comments. I also enjoyed reading Blur’s comments (#9). I’m a quote addict–but not being much of a sports fan–I never heard of John Wooden’s words: “Be quick but never in a hurry”.
What a perfect quote for Real Estate Land! I’m writing this one down as I continue the hunt to become a homeowner once again. Blur, mahalo for posting it.
Shadash & Blur-
I was on your side, but just gave up and bought with a 30-year fixed because I figure those bastards are going to print as much as it takes to keep the banks solvent.
It does seem like it is just a matter of time before the shadow inventory has to be dumped on the market. It seems stupid the banks aren’t listing more of their more marketable properties on the market. But then, banks were never designed to do this. And very few of them seem to be learning or have the management with the qualities to move ahead in this market. Plus, there are expected to be at least 100 more bank failures this year and they all can’t be in Georgia.
Clearfund.
Hey, I live in Grayhawk!
Yes, we’ve seen the same thing. Properties are much more expensive this year. Actually I’d say the best values in Phoenix were January 2009 through mid summer 2009. Since, oh July or so, there has been a lot of bidders paying way too much.
Can’t find anything in the south east valley (Gilbert, Chandler), because properties are going for around 85% of ARV. Crazy.
It seems like quite a few buyers at auction want to hold for cash flow AND resale in 2 to 5 years when they expect prices to rise again.
There just isn’t as much margin for flipping as before.
If you are out this way, send me a message and we can meet up at Starbucks and swap stories…
Jim,
What was that last comment about $30k? Is that the way they will decide which offer to submit, by who offers the $30k bribe?
Blur #9: I was there the same day too, and saw that makeshift sign for Valentine’s. Small world. There was a young boy there too, with the same idea, he’d bought a set of tulips, waiting for his special someone. I’d expect to pay more at that particular shopping center. I was surprised to see vacancies at that center. On the whole, though, all the shops I’d expected to see were still there. I used to work in that area, about 10 years ago, and loved it there, and I am very familiar with that particular shopping center. On friday, I met my tax lady on Del Mar Heights up the street farther, so I’d stopped by the shopping center. All the old places like Rocco’s and Aveda were still there, along with Barnes & Noble. A while back, Jim had shown a bit of the shopping center in his video, with the ground fountain that shoots water from the ground & I got nostalgic, and when I had the chance to stop by this past friday, coming back from La Jolla, I took it to see hows things were in the center. It does look run down, from when I remember it, although the surrounding areas like the parks and library, just around the corner looks virtually the same. I felt terrible, though, as I drove to see the library, on the way to meet my tax lady, I almost ran over the poor young fellow who’d bought the tulips, and had sat waiting by the flower shop. I can only imagine how he must’ve felt, stood up, and almost run over by me, riding his skate board on the way home!
David – For fund, since you live in Greyhawk, Here is the address/maplink to the Greyhawk house referenced earlier that sold at the Friday TS in Phonix.
Its the one with the darker red roof straight line from the san trap and has 2 umbrellas in the rear yard.
Property: 8101 Wingspan Way, Scottsdale, AZ
http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&cp=pmck5x5p71wk&scene=5715528&lvl=2&sty=b&where1=8101%20E%20Wingspan%20Way%2C%20Scottsdale%2C%20AZ%2085255-6451
shadash, you have chronology backwards here. The housing bubble formed and popped long before the bailouts you’re referring to. The main difference of coruse is we’d have accountability now. But the housing crash, short sales, and foreclosures? That would have happened either way.