MLS Listings of Detached Homes in Carmel Valley, 92130:
ACTIVES: 111
$1,778,211 average list price, $399/sf, 132 Avg. Days on Mkt.
(25% of those homes on market more than 6 months)
PENDINGS: 63
$1,163,104 average list price, $336/sf, 76 Avg. DOM
(41 pending, 22 contingent)
DEC. 09 SOLDS: 47
$1,032,650 average sales price, $331/sf,
75 DOM, 96% SP:LP
DEC. 08 SOLDS: 20
$1,092,245 average sales price, $346/sf
46 DOM, 95% SP:LP
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In areas like CV, I think you can count the contingents as ‘likely-to-close-someday’, because the low inventory and quick sales are causing buyers to hang in longer, and pay more if needed – just to buy something, and conclude the hunt:
There have been 16 houses listed over $1,000,000 that have gone pending this month in Carmel Valley. In 2009, there were 121 closings over $1,000,000, averaging $338/sf.
jim,
Are you seeing a lot of short sales that come on the market with an offer virtually at the same time?I am hearing wind of lots of shady dealings going on.The home seller is finding a relative or friend for example to buy their house with the intention of buying it back from them.
Also any knowledge of under the table kickbacks to 2nd lien holders in short sales?It seems like there is a lot of coruption surrounding short sales.
Good morning Tim the Stalker!
Wow, I’m surprised to see that many offers on houses over 1M. Has the jumbo financing situation improved? Those prices in CV make Encinitas and Carlsbad look pretty affordable if not downright cheap.
Big Down Payments.
How was the catering? Fancy hors d’oeuvres? Or cheese and crackers? 🙂
$400/month in mello roos and HOA fees? I sold my condo when the municipal taxes and condo fees hit that amount, and a huge increase was planned to pay for major renovations to the building.
There are definitely plenty of looking buyers out there, and enough of them tired of waiting for their dream house to foreclose and relist. That said, some red flags I see sure remind me of the start of the last bubble when I was in UTC watching streets packed with speculators throwing their money at builders.
I just don’t get it.
But thanks as always for the front line update.
I just don’t get it either. $500-600k (+$400/mth). How much is that a month? – even with a decent downpayment – 4K?
Look at those crowds, too. Hurry! before you are priced out forever LOL.
Amazing there are so many willing to spend so much for a condo in the burbs…
I’m curious as to what advantage those baja derby hills folks have to doing a short sale? Both ding the credit pretty bad – but it seems like you can ride the free-rent gravy train longer if you go all the way to foreclosure. Does a short sale have any benefit to the seller?
Amazing there are so many willing to spend so much for a condo in the burbs…
FYI: The URL “CarmelFlip.com” is available. 🙂
what is mellow ruse and home owners fee that jim is talking about regarding the condos? he said probably 4-5 hundred a month..
UCGal,
It’ll be what you see a lot more of in 2010 – the Short Sale Hail Mary, when folks are down to their last week, and the servicer has told them, “no more extensions”.
The banks/servicers must be looking for any reason to postpone, given it happens about 90% of the time. But I’ve seen it where they say ‘no too late’ with only a day or two left before the trustee sale.
To answer your previous question on the O-side flippers, I went through them one-by-one. Eight were purchased at the court house steps, and the ninth was a lengthy-short-sale-purchase-then-flipped.
The market is stunning and I’m completely stunned; but I get it – there are simply lots of buyers with large cash down payments who are just tired of waiting. CV is the sweet spot for close proximity to tech employment, the schools are good, and the inventory is still low; so ~$1M for an average house in the area looks like a deal. After the Chargers’ last game it looks like real estate season is ready to rock ‘n’ roll!
Headline from an article in the CV News:
‘Prospect of rising interest rates means best time to buy may be now, real estate experts say’.
Elsewhere in the paper: ‘Anyone looking to buy, move up or refinance, must do so before spring. As the Fed winds down…rates to rise from the current 5% to at least 6%’ – realtor ad headline.
Sometimes, when I’m perched atop my Thinking Chair with my tin foil hat strapped tightly to my head, I wonder if the Chinese aren’t taking some of those US dollars they’ve got stacked up to the sky…and sending people over here to buy up property with them. Or, maybe these are families who have been hoarding USD over the decades (as many families with access to relatives in the U.S. were inclined to do when the dollar was considered a “safe” currency), and fearing a dollar collapse, are coming over here and buying up property in order to hedge their bets.
While I don’t doubt there are plenty of people with money out there, I’m hearing lots of stories with Chinese connections: large bulk purchases, commercial purchases, etc.
Anyway, just trying to piece things together…
Thanks, as always, for your informative posts, Jim.
Why is even La Jolla and Del Mar going down while Carmel Valley going up?
This is very frustrating.
Thanks for answering, Jim. I learn a lot from this blog and your insight.
regarding my own question at post 11, i wish i could say the same…
“CV is the sweet spot for close proximity to tech employment, the schools are good”
And in California, each of those gets just a little worse each day.
The real key I think, is who is buying. In-towner locals who know the area, or tenderfoots who do not.
My suspicion is that SD and carmel valley get a lot of people who know nothing about SD but need and want to buy. They thinks it’s like where they lived. But 5 years later they’re gone after seeing what a terrible value SD is and by then a new group has moved in. Rinse and repeat except that this time a whole mess of them are stuck.
James @ 18
Mello Roos are a California specific tax that came into play in the mid-80’s. It transferred the initial infrastructure costs of new communities from the developer to the home owners. It can range pretty widely in how much it runs – but in some cases it’s a few hundred dollars/month… in addition to the mortgage and HOAs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mello-Roos
JimB,
You’re exactly right. In almost every case I’ve seen where the buyers seriously overpaid, they were from somewhere else (another state or country). IMHO, some realtors are very unscrupulous, and use these naive buyers to pump up prices. Those of us who have watched California real estate over the decades know that this is a very volatile markets where lots of money is made, and lots of money is lost. Timing is everything in California real estate, and to me, the current market looks very much like another top.
thanks UCGal – i appreciate that info…