When the big bombers start falling from above, it can’t help but squish everything below. This Pulte tract house in La Costa Greens sold for around $1.3 million in 2005:
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
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Is that the “Pink Palace” above this house? If this neighborhood fed into Cbad schools/Aviara Elementary and Middle, they could have held their own. But then the mello roos, HOA and and taxes are a killer.
Boxy is right. The RSF place the other day has so much more going for it in every way — design, detail, lot, location, etc. Of course, that’s probably why it’s (at least) a mil more, right?
Big bombers aren’t dive bombers unless they were built or bought in new development in Carlsbad between 2003 and 2007. A little OT here Jim, but going back to entry level/low end Encinitas – look at what is going on in Village Park:
approx 1300 sq ft!
Oct 09, 2009 Listed $434,200
Sep 11, 2009 Sold $500,631 (REO)
Feb 14, 2006 Sold $645,000
May 28, 2003 Sold $420,000
I yelled and laughed at my Realtor when he wanted me to put in a bid for this house at over $645K back in 2006. Every house he showed me in that area is an REO or in some form of foreclosure. This is what happens when people are ALL IN with someone elses money. He doesn’t return my calls or answer my emails. I wonder why.
I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m still uncertain about buying now:
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/realestate/blog/2009/10/rocky_road_ahead_for_the_housing_market_firm_warns.html
Prices are starting to return some level of sanity. That’s a decent location and square footage for the money.
During the bubble this home would be perceived as special.
If you wanted lots of place for your stuff/furniture, this is a decent value.
Anyone who buys now will regret their purchase. Not until prices are at mid-2001 levels will they be “normal”.
Prices are dropping to 2000-2001 levels, and some say they may go under 1995 prices, due to the high unemployment levels. Stand by for the “Great Correction” its coming to a town near you….
Riverside County experienced it first, now its San Diego County’s turn…
If you house isn’t at least, AT LEAST, 50% under the bubble’s peak, you overpaid, no doubt….
Homer-I guess I did okay then, since my house was 62.5% off peak (in the city of Riverside-I paid $150k vs. $400k peak pricing). Also, it’s only 1750ish square feet, yet has one more bedroom than this place. Wasted square footage is absolutely right. I’m amazed somebody could figure out how to build a 4700 square foot house with only three bedrooms.
I’m amazed somebody could figure out how to build a 4700 square foot house with only three bedrooms.
Geotpf | October 11th, 2009 at 12:39 am
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This is exactly what turns me off to the new developments. Lots of square footage that isn’t usable because it’s all “Grand Foyers” and useless nooks and crannies. They slap these grand monstrosities on 5,000 SF lots, load them up with HOA and Mello-Roos fees, then insult buyers even further by outfitting them with only 3 or 4 bedrooms. And for all this, they want to charge more than any sane buyer has ever paid in the surrounding neighborhood for similar houses.
One of the best things that could ever happen to this state is for the big developers to go belly-up, so that families could build their own well-designed custom homes.
That place reminds me of the Lac Leamy Hilton in Gatineau, Quebec (right next to the casino). Vast rooms, interesting color and trim, huge bathroom with separate bath and shower, but you ask yourself if it was actually worth the price.
Jim,
What can we expect HOA and Mello-Roos and taxes for this one?
HOA is 260/mo
prior owner’s property tax + mello roos was 18,000 per year, the mello roos portion is $3141
the prior owner bought the place for $1.35 million, add in the pool, the spa, the interior improvements, you are looking at at least $250k of improvement back in peak years. (can probably get all of the same improvements done for $120k now). the appliances missing is an easy fix.
so we are looking at $1.6 million easy for peak valuation.
a neighbor at the same sqft 3 doors down bought from the builder at $1.6 million in 12/2005, it was then flipped in 6/2007 for $1.7 million. So $1.6 million at peak is not an exaggeration.
so let’s look at the math now:
–34% off ’06 prices, but 45% off figuring in improvements and 48% off neighborhood peak. you are easily looking at $500-600k off.
–$188/sqft at asking price of $891k
–20% down and with rate of 5%, you are looking at $3800/month
–mello roos + HOA per month = $520
–property tax now down to $9800 per year due to the price reduction.
–total monthly expense of $5100
for someone pulling in $200k a year or above, this is a great opportunity. and remember folks, these days pharmacists and engineers easily pull in 6 figures, a dull income family with one of each would easily handle the payments.
I looked at Carlsbad before and back in 2000 prices per sqft was around $175-185/sqft. whether it be CUSD or SMUSD. (this one is SMUSD)
this is a very decent deal and I fully expect this to be gone within 30 days with multiple offers.
yet of the 10 comments above I say 50% easy were negative.
Jim, you got a tough permabear crowd here.
Tax rate is 1.21% including the $2,006/year M-R.
On the street:
ACT: Two active listings of 4,913 square-footers, both looking for $2 mill
CONT: One 4,342sf short sale, listed for $1.495 since April and marked sale contingent on lender approval
SHADOW: Another 4,913sf at top of hill that was purchased for $1,552,500 in October 2006 with 20% down payment. But the first mortgage must have been a neg-am. It’s starting balance was $1,164,161.
Today’s balance?
Counting fees and back payments, $1,352,893, or 16% ABOVE ORIGINAL BALANCE according to the notice of trustee sale.
The trustee sale was scheduled for last month, but it’s been postponed to January, 2010.
But they have a nice clubhouse.
Most recent big bomber comp (but in better schools) REO
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090048387-7566_Circulo_Sequoia_Carlsbad_CA_92009
This one in LC Oaks got bid up obviously and it ended up going higher then I would have expected because it has no view. The recent short sales with views in there were better deals IMHO.
A couple of shorts on Lapis in the mid to low 8’s would give me pause here. I think they were in much better condition. Of course this is a much bigger house. I think the 845k short on Lapis was around 4k feet but the house was immaculate.
I don’t know … I guess just because it is a REO it will probably get bid up over ask but I just can’t see this price igniting a major bidding war. If it had the big view that some on Amber do, then all bets would be off and it would easily go over 1M.
The same model short sale across the street that closed for $805,000 in May was bare bones, but yes on view side. It should have went for more, list was had come down painfully from $1,079,000 to $879,000 and he round-tripped it after a couple of escrows and 174 days on market. It’ll be one of the better buys of the year.
You’ll see both on a video later today where I mis-speak and guessed it 900 instead of 805, but I liked 7566 at $951,000. I think you have to include some upsurge in price when there are 10 offers, and I gave it an extra $50K each for yard and condition, and threw in the stainless outdoor kitchen for free.
I knocked off some from the view because there will be houses built there some day.
What do you think Local Boy?
I agree the house that sold for 805k will be one of the better deals this year in LC oaks.
When I said I didn’t think it was a good deal relative to other “view” houses, I was talking in particular about this one (there have also been others in the similar ballpark).
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090041220-7661_Sitio_Algodon_Carlsbad_CA_92009
Sorry Jim, I just realized Algodon was a REO and not a short. Still, I would have taken it over 7566.
I gave that yard a -$50,000. It was 100% concrete, but no plumbing or electrical run for any goodies. What they did build in was uncomfortable benches (straight up-and-down backs) and a low bar that was good for nothing. The only yard I’ve seen with that much work and no BBQ.
The interior felt more stock and tract-like to me.
The view was OK, but ocean is rarely seen, and people race up and down the street below.
You are probably right Jim. I tend to put a larger premium on view — particularly if it is a sunset/ocean view. I guess the bottom line is that LC oaks is holding up pretty well in this downturn. Obviously a lot of demand in these price points. I’m a little skeptical that greens will generate the same level of bidding intensity but who knows? Like you say though, there are houses listed up the street for 2M and that will probably get some people excited enough to bid and perhaps overbid.
The listing agent on Amber is one of the best at hitting the right LP. If it would have been $950,000, it would have looked somewhat pedestrian at $200/sf.
Slip it down to $891,000 and you have a good chance of a bidding war.
These days it’s easier go up in price, than down.
Enjoying some humor in CV on a fresh REO listing that was inputted while tenant-occupied. They are only going to allow showings on Monday from 10-12, plus here are the confidential remarks:
“Agents, per tenants request 3 buyer groups max can go thru the house at the same time. On 10/12, if there are already 3 groups inside, tenant will kindly ask you to wait outside until a group leaves.”
Alot of people are going to be surprised whe the County Assesor bases the property tax on the prior assessed value and not on the sales price on the REO properties!It is happening so buyer beware!
Love the CV REO tenant occupied remarks and demands. The tenants are probably the only ones the bank has seen any money from in the past 12 months so it makes sense they are meeting their demands.
wow, someone down the street paid $1.89 million for a 4300 sqft one back in May of 08.
much bigger yard, probably better ocean view, just a $1 million premium.
This LC Oaks home is the best “big bomber squishdown” comp killer that I’ve been waiting for. I actually feel this is getting back to more reality for this view, quality pool/yard, home finishes, schools, etc for just over $1mm…
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081003708-3562_Calle_Palmito_Carlsbad_CA_92009
“Alot of people are going to be surprised whe the County Assesor bases the property tax on the prior assessed value and not on the sales price on the REO properties!It is happening so buyer beware!”
Any evidence of this? Yes, it takes a while for the Accessor to make the update but just a quick look at some properties that I was looking at back in 2008 that sold for below previous appraisals shows that indeed the new value was set to the sold price. I think it does take 6-12 months to update but they should reimburse you any overpaid taxes.
“This LC Oaks home is the best “big bomber squishdown” comp killer that I’ve been waiting for.”
Once the sales price hit on Palmito I was surprised as well. So much that I thought there was something fishy about the sale. JTR what is the word on the street for that one? That street is supposed to be the best in LC oaks.
Insider short-sale deal though, and in the works for a lonnggg time.
The LP was $1.495, and I sold the 3,911sf house a couple of doors down for $1.295 in April.
They could flip that for $250,000 profit easy today.
“Insider short-sale deal though”
So it was shady then. Looked too good to be a legit. sale that is why I didn’t mention it earlier as a comp for 7566.
Same listing agent on this one and the $805,000.
And I like Bill, but I don’t like seeing a short sale listing showing up closed at 32% below list price.
Lowering the list price along the way gives every buyer and agent a chance at determining fair value.
so someone just gave away Palmito to an insider friend for $250k below ‘reality’ to be nice??
Yes, but the lenders had to sign off too, so you could lay the blame at their doorstep for letting it go.
We’ll see more short sales being manipulated lower, and REO listings bid higher in a frenzy market.
Palmito’s has been in the SS process for at least six months, and there was a lowball, bare-bones REO sale across the street that must have contributed to their valuation. They may have done appraisals before my sale closed.
It’s got to beat the SS’s around me that come up with 0 days on market but already under contract. What’s up with that?
And the former short sales that are now listed 100k-150k above with owner-agents. Cute.
Or the ones priced realistically enough to be plausible but low enough to grab a buyer, that then the bank comes back at 20-40k over contract (high enough that the original buyer balks). And the agent then sells in 0 days to a buyer working with someone else in the firm. (that’s the least offensive to me for some reason).
It offends me too, and there is no movement by NAR, CAR, or local boards to do anything about it, as far as I know, and they know about it.
Hopefully the recent bidding wars in LC oaks for REOs will stop the fraudulent short sales. The banks are clearly getting more $$$ from the well priced REOs and frankly it is better for everyone involved that houses get sold for market value. It is hard enough for a buyer these days to gauge value without all the rampant greed and fraud around.
REO sales are not considered Arms length transactions and are assessed at full value not sales price,they will reassess the property if you challenge it but the higher value will always be the max value you pay on down the road years later when prices go up.This is how they have gotten around Prop 13.
Hey Jim–Both of the homes in La Costa Oaks were good solid buys even in today’s market. I also liked the one Pamzilla mentioned on Calle Palmito for just over $1M–nice home. What surprises me it that the house at 7527 Circulo Sequoia, which is the same model as the other two, sold at $1,040,000 recently. It is also surprising that the surrounding tracts of older, smaller homes (>2000sf) are holding at roughly 300sf!
That was supposed to read $300/sf-sorry.
Paid Off:
You would challenge the original accessed price which should be the sales price. I suppose that if you sell the house to your daughter for $1 then you would have a problem. So far, I have not seen people have problems for legitimate open market transactions. Please advice if you examples to share to the contrary.
If you buy a house on the open market (even if it is a REO), the fair market value should be the sales price unless there was some obvious fraud going on and the accessor catches it.
I don’t see why a REO would be treated any differently than any other fixer-upper on the street as long as it was purchased in a competitive situation.
Is anyone seeing the kind of stuff paid off is mentioning?
Sorry Pemeliza–I referred to you as Pamzilla–has sort of a nice ring to it anyhow!!!
“A lot of people are going to be surprised when the County Assessor bases the property tax on the prior assessed value and not on the sales price on the REO properties!It is happening so buyer beware!”
And not only REO’s. Here on the Central Coast, the County’s now assessing property taxes at a 1.3% rate of the purchase price. These are not REOs. They’ve just increased the rate (from 1.1%) by which the each property is assessed.
The contractor I talked to yesterday lives in my neighborhood and confided that his property tax statement just went up $700/year, but the “value” of his home plummeted. He was none too happy. In fact, I’d say that he was outraged just looking at his face! He’s 84 years old–and doesn’t look a day over 65.
This gentleman told me he was picking up a prescription for his beloved wife of 62 years. Years ago, she was injured by a hit-and-run driver who backed up while this lady was walking with her shopping car in a San Diego parking lot. (That driver–in a brand-new car with no license plates–has never been found). And now he has a $700/year property tax increase that he needs to pay.
*Sigh* His property tax increase is NOT good news for me. Why? I just realized any day now I’ll get a phone call I don’t want to receive. I rent in the same neighborhood as this 84-year old guy. Therefore, my rent–in all likelihood– is going up–again.
Two years ago, my landlords hiked my rent up $150/month. Their reason?–property tax increase. OK, I get that. But then I called the county assessor’s office and gave my address. I found out the owners’ taxes went up only $7/month.
And for you folks who may say: “Not happy? Move!” It’s not that easy for single mom (by widowhood) with two kids (both in college)to just move and rent –when I just want to be a homeowner again. Moving isn’t a fun adventure with all the expenses and new fees to hook up utilities.
And I’m not a irresponsible renter. I guess I’m just a responsible “idiot” of sorts. I’ve been a homeowner three times in my life, and have been diligently searching for my last home.
I pay my rent (higher than any mortgage I’ve ever had) in full and on time every month. If there’s any concerns, I immediately call the property management company. I water their lawn 5 times/week ‘cuz their grass isn’t “green enough” (per a relative who lives nearby).
Oh, yeah, they live in a 6,000+ sf home with a 4-car garage on acreage in another city.
I’m growing more pessimistic by the day, JtR. Why? I’ve looked for a long time–a really, really long time. And there have been only a few houses that I actually wanted to put 20% down on (that solar home that “broke my heart” last spring for one).
Each one of those houses is probably upside down. In hindsight, it’s good news that I didn’t make any offers. But that joy is tempered by the fact that I’m sick of renting.
When the Governator ran for office, he promised he wouldn’t raise taxes except for an “emergency”. Well, it’s an “emergency” that I become a homeowner (at least in my heart), but there’s nothing I want to buy at the listed prices. They seem to all elicit one big yawn from me as soon as I walk in the front door.
Like Robin Willam’s quips: “I’m one taco short of the (real estate) combination plate…
Apologies for the very long post readers and Jim, but I woke up this morning so frustrated as there aren’t even any homes for sale worthy to see. Most sellers need to check their calendars and realize it’s no longer early 2006.
Jim, *Chuckle* are there some words of wisdom you can offer–besides your wise counsel to keep my posts much shorter? Since I live in a small town that no longer has much inventory (REOs and shorts already resold), what can I do?
Mahalo for listening. I’ll now catch up on a couple of Jim’s classic videos and all the comments that follow.
You have a number of choices:
1. Get married to someone with dough/house.
2. Get boyfriend who has dough/house.
3. Get girlfriend who has dough/house.
4. Buy with kids.
5. Buy with friends.
6. Move to cheaper area. (great idea)
7. Rent forever.
8. Buy RV and see the country.
9. Go live with kids/friends.
You didn’t get into enough detail here:
And for you folks who may say: “Not happy? Move!” It’s not that easy for single mom (by widowhood) with two kids (both in college)to just move and rent – when I just want to be a homeowner again. Moving isn’t a fun adventure with all the expenses and new fees to hook up utilities.
That Calle Palmito house was sweet and the price was, too!
I think Carlsbad REO’s are over priced I will wait for today’s REO’s to go back into second REO.
Carlsbad is still 30% overpriced.
2 comments.
1. Worth 850? Maybe, sure. But, its such a dull, unimaginative house, I’m not sure it was worth 1.3.
2. I’ve always been a big believer that the $/sf metric is pretty useless on its own. Air is cheap, and this house proves it. Maybe because where I live now you don’t commonly get SF listed in the MLS, we’re not as driven by it.
More generally, one needs to look at the details in houses. Look at this one. The tile, all standard 12″-ish size, and put in on a square. With that much wide open tile space, it should be a big 18 or 24″ tile on the diag. Or, maybe a pattern of some sort. I look at that entry and I think cheaply made without much care.