Selling in the newer tracts can be treacherous – do your homework, and get help!
The 147 houses in these two Carlsbad tracts were sold by Shea Homes in 2003 and 2004, and have a $111/mo HOA fee and the Mello-Roos is $884/yr.
Current Activity:
2 = NODs
1 = NOTS
1 = Bank-owned not on market
3 = Active listings
3 = Number of REOs resold since 12/08.
Seven houses are waiting to sell; four bank-related deals vs. three active listings.
Are buyers going to gravitate towards “stealing one from the bank?” Yes, they are, and sellers should expect a tough fight.
Here’s a youtube video that shows how quickly things can change in five months:
(I mis-spoke in the video, the first house you see just closed for $780,000, not $760,000)
The homeowner who has a trustee-sale date next month just gave up after trying for 62 days to short-sell their 3,495sf plan with ocean view for $779,000:
If you are buying or selling, keep track of the foreclosure activity!
Ocean view for ~$200 sq/ft! Things are still crazy expensive around here.
Can you tell me how Bay Collection is doing? I almost bought a 1.230 million house there in 2005. 3500sf.
That’s a lot of carnage in 5 months. I can’t imagine there’s a sunny forecast for fall and winter.
I played golf with a buddy of mine who bought in Carlsbad in 2006. He spoke so matter-of-factly about how we’ve hit bottom and he’s happy his home value is about to go up again. Oops.
Jim, the thing I want you to keep a very close eye on is “seasonality.” The $8k FTHB program is ending and I also suspect both buyers and sellers are about to enter “in the spring” mode.
“Ocean view for ~$200 sq/ft! Things are still crazy expensive around here.”
I’d be *extremely* happy to see anything on the smaller end where I’m looking listed for close to 200 per sq/ft. $250-300 seems to be the normal list price for 1000 to 2000 foot detached homes … and people are biting.
And I really like the tone of Jim’s video. “Sell now, or be priced in forever” (well, ok, a long time 🙂
$200/sf is actually approaching what passed for sane pricing prior to the bubble. That said, prices certainly won’t stop there.
I would think that anyone in NCSD with any equity left and plans on eventually moving should be ringing Jim’s phone off the hook about now.
So the people who bought in the 900’s, are now seeing the 800’s, 700’s, and 600’s all in the same neighborhood.
What’s next, John going to come in and buy one for the 500’s?
Somewhat encouraging, and frightening as a future buyer.
Rob – You really think that $8,000 isn’t going to be extended? I’d be shocked if it isn’t.
Specifically, the 3,495sf model with ocean view and pool/spa closed for $1.015 on July 29th, a few days after the first Delaney REO closes for $695,000. A month later another 3,495sf REO with no pool or view closes for $780,000.
Was there a $200,000+ difference?
I’ll give the view my highest value, $100,000, because it was 180-degree (with a power plant being a slight distraction) but my opinions of pool/spa values is that most are neutral in value – this one might have been $25,000. But this is generous, these days the additional money buyers are willing to pay for the extras is very conservative.
But the short sale is the wildcard, if it gets foreclosed and sells next spring it might sell for $800+. If they put it on the market in November, not so much.
jim,
“23.Opening Bid was $494,000
Sales price was $595,600
Sale date 8/24/09
These guys are good – they make sure to record their grant deed upside down, so their price isn’t listed on the regular tax rolls.”
This is quite interesting.In this case would the deed basically look blank to someone who pulled it?
Rob Dawg-Anybody who can afford to pay between $700k and a million for a house makes too much money to qualify for the eight grand. That tax credit isn’t a factor at all on any house above a half million or so.
Now, there is talk about extending it, increasing it to $15k, and removing the income and first time buyer restrictions. If that actually happens, that will be different. But as for now, it simply doesn’t apply to these higher priced houses.
Geotpf,
I disagree. The upper tier markets depend in large part on move up buyers. The $8k is liquidity injected into an illiquid market. It doesn’t matter where it is applied, it eventually spreads everywhere.
I thought the $8K wasn’t going to work in California/San Diego?
If you need to sell, hell yeah, call JtR. But I would encourage everyone else who can to just pull your signs by October and wait for Spring.
I wonder if the corner lots, with what seems like minimal yards, is the common trait for these comp killers.
Rob Dawg-But there are hardly any move up buyers right now. The proof of that is the lack of organic sales on the low end. The vast, vast majority of sales on the low end are short sales, REOs, foreclosures on the courthouse steps, probate sales, or flippers who have purchased REOS or courthouse foreclosures. The few low end organic sales that are occurring are mostly due to job relocation.