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Jim Klinge
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701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011

Posted by on Jun 21, 2012 in Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 7 comments | Print Print

Carmel Valley’s Spring Kick


We have an unusually low amount of homes for sale (blue line) during the prime selling season – last year we had almost twice as many houses for sale, then we have currently.

I think it is part of the precision in the marketplace. Any seller who prices reasonably – which is easier than ever to accomplish in tract-happy Carmel Valley – sells right away.

But the low inventory is causing sellers to add more mustard to their list prices. There are more houses for sale that are listed over $1,000,000, than are listed under a million. But the average cost of closed sales is struggling to get back to the $330/sf trend, after the recent downswing:


  1. Wouldn’t be that much to get stainless steel kitchen appliances and a new master bathroom floor (travertine w/marble insets would be nice) to compliment the fortune ($10,000?) in Emperador Dark marble in the master bath. That plus a few less pieces of furniture should make for a quick sale. Compared to the other things you can live next to in CV (massive power line towers, freeway) horse farm would be much less of an issue.


  2. I’ve always been confused why Refin keeps publishing that misleading graph of For Sale and Solds. No doubt the market is hot but the # Solds number is a 3 month total while the # listings is the current number. Puts the monthly of inventory at a very low, less than 3 months, but not the, less than 1 month, which is what you’d believe at first glance. I think 92130 has been selling about 45-50 per month lately rather than the 140 the graph states.


  3. Thanks cali, that graph is misleading.

    According to the MLS, detached closed sales for the period March 1 to May 31 in 92130:

    2011: 119
    2012: 115

    Month of May only:

    2011: 42
    2012: 46

    This is what this phase is going to look like as long as the new inventory coming on the market is moderated.

    Look back on the two graphs to last year when there was an uptick in pricing, and how there was a spurt of inventory right after that.

    Could have been seasonal, but curious how many potential sellers are waiting in the wings for any bump in pricing.


  4. why is there a deadbolt on the master door? I’ve never seen that before!


  5. I did see a house once that had two kids rooms upstairs and each room had a lock installed that was high up on the door and locked from the OUTSIDE – that seemed clearly designed to lock kids IN and it was super creepy.


  6. Low inventory is not because of ‘pricing precision’. It’s a distortion cause by the government’s changing the rules of the road. They want banks to use the short sale rather than foreclose on people. Well that puts the underwater homeowner back in the driver’s seat. With foreclosure, the bank decided when. With a short sale proposition, it’s the underwater homeowner who decides if they go forward. If you aren’t paying your mortgage and the bank isn’t really bothering you (tossing you into the street) why the heck go through a short sale? Stay rent-free longer in the house.

    As a would be buyer, I don’t see prices rising significantly anytime soon. I see much more downside risk than upside.

    So it’s a stalemate – at least for awhile. I think sooner or later it has to change and a lot of inventory will get on the market. When? Who knows. They’ve proved you can kick that can further and further down the road.

    With sell-worthy inventory in very short supply, I actually thing the average real estate agent if getting mightily squeezed.


  7. Only those with deep pockets and very secured job are buying. Regular folks cannot afford and unwilling to overpay for houses anymore.
    I also see a few 65+ year old with good jobs refinanced their house for another 40 years.



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