The premature end to the selling season was postponed this week.
There have been 137 NSDCC closings this month too, which means we should match, and maybe even pass, the 178 sales we had last May.
Inventory Watch
The NSDCC inventory has gotten off to a hot start in 2024 – it’s already at the level it was at in July of last year! As long as the pending keep up….oh wait.
Well, maybe there will be a surge of new pendings on the way? There was a late-summer surge last year, and if it was going to happen, it really should happen earlier this year too.
Pricing of the unsolds probably won’t change much:
The last time mortgage rates were 7% was 22 years ago when local home prices were about one-third of what they are today. As a result, the only semi-relevant comparisons are to last year!
Inventory Watch
With the pendings count being flat for the last eight weeks, it means there have been as many new escrows as closings. It’s when the pendings count starts to fade that we will know the sales machine is breaking down, and there might be trouble ahead.
There has been a steady flow of new NSDCC listings hit the market (40-60 per week in 2024) which has to be encouraging for buyers. Not only are there more homes to consider, but it could also mean that it’s a little more likely that a glut could form and put some pressure on pricing. But it’s not happening yet – the number of actives has flattened out too.
Inventory Watch
In the last seven days of April, there were 75 closings between La Jolla and Carlsbad – and there are 183 more that are still pending!
Given the higher mortgage rates, this has to be peak performance, doesn’t it?
Inventory Watch
In the last week, there were 67 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad – the highest weekly count in 2024 and only the second time over sixty this year. But the appearance in the graph above was muted because there were 36 new pendings, and 42 closings – which is good flow! There have been 36 new pendings in three out of the last four weeks, which doesn’t suggest much of a slow down.
We’re already up to 165 sales this month, the same as last April! The median sales price YoY is up 8.3% too.
Inventory Watch
The graph above should give us all some guidance on where the 2024 market is going.
Sales are hanging tough though. There have been 117 NSDCC closings this month, so we should get close to the 165 sales we had last April. The median sales price is running +5% above last April too.
Inventory Watch
It looks like we’ve found the number.
Because the inventory was so low last year, I thought the market could easily handle a 10% to 20% increase in active listings this year.
But now the number of actives is +30% YoY, and the pendings aren’t increasing in a similar fashion. If sales don’t pick up, it means a glut of unsold listings could be forming over the next 1-2 months.
Will buyers care?
Probably not, because they have shrugged off worse (higher prices and rates). But once a listing goes unsold for 2-3 weeks, it will take something drastic to get the buyers’ attention again.
Inventory Watch
The number of active listings is a reflection of how many new listings are coming on the market vs. how many are going off the market at the same time.
While today’s number of actives is 29% higher than it was last year at this time, let’s note that the 2023 inventory was a virtual flat line where they were selling as fast as they were coming on the market.
Any reason for alarm today?
Not really – more actives means there are more homes to choose from, which should mean more sales as long as the number of unsold listings doesn’t start looking like a glut and spook the buyer pool (apparently, the +29% is acceptable). So far, so good in 2024.
This year looks pretty strong! If you house isn’t selling, it ain’t the market’s fault.
Inventory Watch
The potential surge in new listings has stalled, and for the second week in a row we had more new pendings than listings! But something has to give, doesn’t it?
The pricing continues to levitate, at the cost of sales:
NSDCC Monthly Detached-Home Sales, March
There will be the usual late-reporters that get this year’s number of sales up to 155-160 or so, and this trend should continue for the next 2-3 month where just the deserving homes get sold. It would seem to be inevitable that the number of active (unsold) listings start to pile up by the end of summer. Get ‘er done!
Inventory Watch
Just when I thought having more active listings might slow the market, the buyers responded!
There were more new pendings (46) this week than we’ve had all year, and they out-numbered the new listings count of 45 – which hasn’t happened in months!
Wow!
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
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Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
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