Relatively-Low Inventory

Rich’s latest graphs are out, and this inventory history above shows how relatively few homes are for sale locally.

The median detached-home list price for the county today is $849,000!

He did mention a reader’s theory that in the era of online search portals, the inventory has become more efficient.  Better-educated buyers are making faster decisions these days, which keeps the inventory counts down. But the hot buys have always sold quickly, and the over-abundance of data could be dumbing down the decision-making.

Do buyers just grab a house now?

More of Rich’s graphs here:

https://www.piggington.com/may_2019_housing_data

Inventory Watch

One of our favorite doomers says the tide is rolling out because inventory is up 37% in L.A.

There are 11.5% more San Diego homes for sale, year-over-year.  But in an area of 3.3 million people, having less than 10,000 homes for sale doesn’t sound like panic time – and other metros have more:

Currently we have 1,029 NSDCC houses for sale, and last year at this time the count was 978, or 5% lower.

The tide rolls out at the end of summer- let’s see how many sellers stay on the market in 4Q19.

https://www.zillow.com/research/local-market-reports/


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Inventory Watch

The NAR is pushing their latest propaganda above – but they they gloss over the fact that YoY rates were only 1/4% better in March and April when those decisions were made to close the sales in May.

Rates started rising in 2018, and you can see how it affected the pendings below.  In a fortuitous change this year, rates are dropping and will probably see their 2019 low point in the next couple of weeks as the markets prepare for a Fed rate cut in July – but we aren’t seeing a bump in pendings just yet:

 

July is probably as good as it’s going to get for the rest of 2019!

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Inventory Watch

Let’s note how the days-on-market is different for each price range:

NSDCC Price Range
Average Days-on-Market, Actives
Average Days-on-Market, Pendings
$0 – $1.0M
35
28
$1.0 – $1.5M
55
28
$1.5 – $2.0M
55
39
$2.0M+
93
115

New listings priced under $1,000,000 get reviewed for a week or two, and then most get into escrow within the first month. On the other end, the lower average DOM for actives than pendings means we’re having a surge of new listings. Sure enough, we’ve had 309 new listings priced over $2,000,000 in the last 60 days. There have been 119 closings over $2 million in the same period.

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Inventory Watch

Rates have come down nicely and there are 9% more active NSDCC listings today than there were at this time in 2018.

Yet the pendings can’t even keep up with last year.

With rates in the high-3s, will we at least plateau for a couple of months, like last year?

Maybe the warmer weather will bring out more buyers.

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Inventory Watch

We had that spurt in pendings the previous week, but it cooled right back down this past week:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Pendings
May 6
113
67
364
May 13
86
48
362
May 20
132
55
357
May 27
100
78
375
Jun 3
109
55
365

The graduation season will provide some distractions over the next couple of weeks, but if rates stay in the high-3s, the selling season might stretch out a bit.

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Inventory Watch

Last week we had the most new listings in a year, and this week we had the highest new-pendings count since July – there must be a correlation!

Given the standard of a healthy market being a ratio of 2:1 actives-to-pendings, we’re doing great:

NSDCC Active and Pendings Count Today

Price Range
Actives
Pendings
Ratio
0-$1,000,000
110
80
1.8 to 1
$1.0M – $1,500,000
198
133
1.5 to 1
$1.5M – $2,000,000
165
79
2.1 to 1
$2,000,000+
517
91
5.7 to 1

Even the high-end has 91 pendings!

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Inventory Watch

We had 132 new listings hit the MLS in the last week, which is the highest weekly total in over a year.  Hopefully more listings will mean more sales!

Last year, it was during this time that the momentum picked up nicely, and the only time we had 400+ pendings in 2018.  We also had the highest number of monthly closings for the year in June (299).

NSDCC Total Number of Pending Listings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362
3rd Week of May
369
357
4th Week of May
387
?
1st Week of June
410
?
2nd Week of June
401
?
3rd Week of June
376
?
4th Week of June
358
?

This is as good as it’s going to get in 2019 – it’s prime time!

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Inventory Watch

Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?

Oops, the pendings count stalled:

NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362

We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?

Want another sign?

At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.

But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.

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Inventory Watch

North San Diego County’s coastal region has been having a great selling season so far! The number of pendings have been keeping up nicely with last year’s weekly totals:

NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
?

But look at the second week in May, 2018.  It was the biggest week of the year for adding new pendings with +9% in one week!  Hopefully that means a big surge this week.

If my horse-ranch listing is any indicator, we will – two offers came in over the weekend!

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