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Inventory Watch

There have been more new pendings than new listings for four weeks in a row.

This week’s 54 new pendings is the highest weekly amount since the end of August!

There are more pendings than actives today (232 vs. 229) and it’s the week of Thanksgiving!

At this time last year, there were 520 actives and 426 pendings.

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Inventory Watch

Last year at this time there were 272 active listings of detached homes priced under $3,000,000.

Today, there are 89.

Of those, there are only 47 active listings under $2,000,000.

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Inventory Watch

There is nothing normal about the 2021 market conditions!

Detached-Homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

Year
NSDCC October Listings
Oct Sales
10-mo. YTD Listings
10-mo. YTD Sales
2016
349
274
4,691
2,623
2017
346
257
4,234
2,642
2018
401
238
4,378
2,404
2019
366
240
4,313
2,388
2020
400
382
4,077
2,589
2021
205
240
3,297
2,778

In recent non-covid history, there has been around 50% more listings than sales in October – but not this year! The total number of listings are 20% to 25% lower this year, yet the number of sales are higher!

Those who are predicting that 2022 will go back to ‘normal’ will be surprised!

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Inventory Watch

Buyers are increasingly disinterested in the current inventory, and the lack of new listings is making it worse – which is tempting buyers to pack it in for the holidays.

There have only been 163 new NSDCC listings this month – last October we had 400.

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SD North County, September

Thanks go out to Jerry Ryan, who publishes a monthly newsletter out of the goodness in his heart – giving us another look at the local stats.

He circled in red (above) and I added a red arrow below that show how the inventory has been so different this year – and it really dropped off in September.  Yet sales are actually higher, YTD.

I love his sparkbars too!

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Previously, it might have been possible to have a month or two where the SP:LP ratio would be close to 100%.  But in 2021, we might have the ratio be over 100% for the entire year!

We had a surge in sales at the end of 2012 and 2020, and both were followed by incredible frenzy conditions the next year. Are we setting up for a big 2022? Here is the latest report on the national picture:

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Declining Inventory & More Sales

We keep hearing people say that the inventory is rising………..but is it?

Bill’s chart shows how different the San Diego inventory is compared to all the others:

Ten of his 22 metros did have increases in their inventories, month-over-month!  But MOST had declines, with San Diego being the leader – by far.

The San Diego inventory plunged almost 19% month-over-month (second only to Albuquerque) and was the decisive #1 metro winner with the 49.3% decline, YoY.

We have half the inventory we had a year ago!

But it’s not affecting sales, because demand is overwhelming.  The September sales were outstanding – higher than in recent years, except for the big rally in the second half of last year:

How will this play out next year?

Let’s assume that there is pent-up supply, and there is a surge of listings next year – is there precedent?

Yes, and let’s check the last time the inventory had been in decline.  In early 2013, we got a boost of listings, and the waiting demand gobbled them up – and the frenzy was on:

Hopefully it will happen like that again in 2022, and it will be surge-proof. The more listings that come to market, the hotter the frenzy will be.

I’m on a morning call with 150 Compass agents around California. The leader said today that most agents have a 10:1 ratio of buyers to sellers. The demand is there!

But it could be fairly subdued next year, if nobody wants to sell.

Inventory Watch

Actives and pendings are plunging at about the same speed now.

You can’t buy what’s not for sale!

Today’s NSDCC median list price is $4,397,500, which is 16% higher than it was on June 7th – which is about when the frenzy seemed to lose some steam.  As long as the inventory is so thin, the few homeowners willing to sell are going to enjoy a pricing bonanza!

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Inventory Watch

A year ago, there were 605 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and 470 pendings.

Today, there are 274 actives, and 278 pendings (which is -55% and -41% YoY).

Buyers didn’t hit the brakes last year when we had twice as many actives, so it will probably take a 100-year flood of inventory to crash the market. It’s more likely to go the other way, and the inventory will likely remain low in 2022…..with more fixers than creampuffs!

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San Diego Inventory & Sales

Most of the country is experiencing increases in their inventory, but not San Diego.  This is why I think our frenzy could – and should – be as hot today as it was last year, but there just aren’t enough homes for sale.

The count of active listings is half of what it was last year at this time!

In spite of our inventory dropping, San Diego sales are hanging tough – down only 11.1%:

From Bill at CR:


Man, what a great time to sell.  Here is Bill’s full article:

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets

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