Rich’s latest graphs are out, and this inventory history above shows how relatively few homes are for sale locally.
The median detached-home list price for the county today is $849,000!
He did mention a reader’s theory that in the era of online search portals, the inventory has become more efficient. Better-educated buyers are making faster decisions these days, which keeps the inventory counts down. But the hot buys have always sold quickly, and the over-abundance of data could be dumbing down the decision-making.
The NAR is pushing their latest propaganda above – but they they gloss over the fact that YoY rates were only 1/4% better in March and April when those decisions were made to close the sales in May.
Rates started rising in 2018, and you can see how it affected the pendings below. In a fortuitous change this year, rates are dropping and will probably see their 2019 low point in the next couple of weeks as the markets prepare for a Fed rate cut in July – but we aren’t seeing a bump in pendings just yet:
July is probably as good as it’s going to get for the rest of 2019!
Let’s note how the days-on-market is different for each price range:
NSDCC Price Range
Average Days-on-Market, Actives
Average Days-on-Market, Pendings
$0 – $1.0M
$1.0 – $1.5M
$1.5 – $2.0M
New listings priced under $1,000,000 get reviewed for a week or two, and then most get into escrow within the first month. On the other end, the lower average DOM for actives than pendings means we’re having a surge of new listings. Sure enough, we’ve had 309 new listings priced over $2,000,000 in the last 60 days. There have been 119 closings over $2 million in the same period.
Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?
Oops, the pendings count stalled:
NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings
1st Week of April
2nd Week of April
3rd Week of April
4th Week of April
5th Week of April
1st Week of May
2nd Week of May
We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?
Want another sign?
At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.
But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.
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