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Inventory Watch


There were 31 and 38 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad in each of the last two weeks, which is incredible – the last time we had those numbers was in the beginning of January! As recently as 2019, the number of new listings in the middle of September were 100+ per week.

The NSDCC monthly sales counts will be crushed for the rest of 2022 – there will probably be at least two months when there will be fewer than 100 sales. There have been 40 NSDCC sales so far in September, and only five of them closed over the list price (with two of those at +$1,000 over or less).

Will they be the superior homes where the sellers held out, and buyers paid retail?  Or will they be the homes where sellers didn’t Get Good Help, and they give away their home in a panic?

The biggest problem is that the comps used to price homes in 2023 will be fewer and farther between, which will mean that we’ll get off to a slow start in the first quarter as everyone does the wait-and-see.

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San Diego County Inventory Very Low

Above, Bill shows how the number of new listings is dropping off in San Diego.

Yes, in the top chart, there were 20.7% more active listings YoY because you can wrongly price a listing today. Last year, just about everything was selling, which is very unusual!

In August, 2019, there were 3,007 detached homes listed for sale in San Diego County, and 67% of them sold.  Last August, there were 2,608 detached homes listed for sale, and 83% of them sold!

We don’t want to get alarmed by any comparisons to the Uber-Frenzy of 2021.

The counts are a little different in this graph, but you can see the huge differences between the pandemic inventory, and normal times.

Today, there are 2,859 active listings of detached-homes in San Diego County.  I won’t be looking for the panic button until that number gets over 6,000 – which may never happen again:

As recently as 2018, there were 10,000+ houses for sale, and today there are fewer than 3,000?

If there was any panic, it would be because the market isn’t correcting – it’s shutting down:

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-86d

Inventory Watch


Even though the August sales count is up to 159, it looks like September might be the first month with fewer than 100 sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad (population 300,000+).  There are only 144 pendings!

Back in 2009 when nobody wanted to sell their house, there were 5,039 listings (the low for the era).

This year, we’ve only had 2,205 listings so far – we’ll be lucky to make it to 3,000 this year, which will be a new record low. Last year, there were 3,632 NSDCC listings (the current record).

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Inventory Watch

On August 8th, the number of pending listings was down to 151 (which was the lowest since early January), and it appeared that the market might shut down early this year.

But today we’re back up to 175 pendings, and still have 449 active listings for buyers to consider.

The number of actives should shrink a bit in September, but pricing should stay range-bound because sellers aren’t going to give up – they will cancel instead.

Here are the remarkably-steady weekly averages of this year’s list-price-per-square-foot, by price range:

Buyers were happy to pay these prices earlier this year when rates were in the 3s!

Is a lower mortgage rate the only thing missing? The sellers can help with that.

It looks like we will muddle through the rest of 2022, and begin next year with prices that look pretty similar to what we have today.

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Inventory Watch

If there was a big surge of listings that weren’t selling, then we’d know for sure that the local market was in trouble. But we got so spoiled by the super-frenzy conditions last year where everything was selling right away that we forgot what it’s like during a non-frenzy.

Yep, when you compare to 2021, we have more active listings – in fact, there are 32% more $2,000,000+ listings today than there were at this time last year!  But relatively speaking, the 340 is a low number:

NSDCC Detached-Home Active Listings, Third Week of August:

Price Range
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0 – $1.5M
328
289
132
47
36
$1.5M – $2.0M
171
200
118
55
78
$2.0M+
562
543
430
257
340
Total # of Listings
1,061
1,032
710
359
454

The inventory is top-heavy with 75% of the actives priced over $2,000,000, but we’ve been very dependent upon the affluent buyers for a while now – the people who are less sensitive to mortgage-rate fluctuations.  The real problem is that you have never gotten so little for your money as you get today.  If anyone can find a way to move up in price to buy a better home, it’s the affluent buyers!

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The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
9
$832/sf
35
36
Jan 10
9
$766/sf
28
29
Jan 17
13
$773/sf
26
27
Jan 24
9
$818/sf
15
29
Jan 31
14
$752/sf
14
31
Feb 7
13
$774/sf
12
32
Feb 14
11
$826/sf
12
35
Feb 21
7
$889/sf
17
38
Feb 28
12
$888/sf
17
33
Mar 7
9
$1,017/sf
21
33
Mar 14
14
$847/sf
18
31
Mar 21
8
$912/sf
26
36
Mar 28
10
$914/sf
25
28
Apr 4
10
$782/sf
33
34
Apr 11
19
$733/sf
21
36
Apr 18
16
$795/sf
28
34
Apr 25
18
$891/sf
27
30
May 2
22
$822/sf
23
31
May 9
24
$887/sf
17
46
May 16
25
$783/sf
22
25
May 23
29
$782/sf
23
29
May 30
30
$782/sf
24
28
Jun 6
34
$763/sf
25
28
Jun 13
33
$802/sf
29
29
Jun 20
48
$774/sf
28
22
Jun 27
43
$755/sf
32
22
Jul 4
49
$757/sf
33
23
Jul 11
56
$757/sf
35
22
Jul 18
51
$741/sf
38
24
Jul 25
53
$755/sf
38
22
Aug 1
46
$736/sf
36
29
Aug 8
43
$746/sf
41
32
Aug 15
37
$775/sf
37
34
Aug 22
36
$766/sf
41
33

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
8
$842/sf
52
36
Jan 10
13
$751/sf
28
29
Jan 17
16
$736/sf
33
27
Jan 24
16
$801/sf
17
27
Jan 31
15
$696/sf
14
34
Feb 7
15
$765/sf
17
34
Feb 14
10
$726/sf
19
38
Feb 21
19
$715/sf
15
39
Feb 28
9
$660/sf
12
46
Mar 7
16
$789/sf
15
46
Mar 14
17
$837/sf
8
44
Mar 21
18
$867/sf
11
43
Mar 28
14
$838/sf
15
48
Apr 4
18
$762/sf
25
42
Apr 11
23
$774/sf
15
39
Apr 18
22
$792/sf
17
41
Apr 25
18
$810/sf
20
41
May 2
27
$809/sf
17
37
May 9
33
$837/sf
17
46
May 16
39
$793/sf
19
44
May 23
43
$793/sf
22
44
May 30
36
$843/sf
23
36
Jun 6
43
$817/sf
23
41
Jun 13
49
$845/sf
24
42
Jun 20
57
$817/sf
24
41
Jun 27
75
$807/sf
24
35
Jul 4
70
$827/sf
27
33
Jul 11
71
$812/sf
30
38
Jul 18
74
$793/sf
32
35
Jul 25
83
$787/sf
34
29
Aug 1
81
$780/sf
35
31
Aug 8
76
$796/sf
40
30
Aug 15
80
$789/sf
42
38
Aug 22
78
$801/sf
46
38

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
18
$1,080/sf
127
43
Jan 10
23
$1,038/sf
85
37
Jan 17
26
$1,044/sf
80
41
Jan 24
28
$1,015/sf
37
42
Jan 31
22
$949/sf
38
47
Feb 7
26
$919/sf
29
42
Feb 14
22
$997/sf
37
49
Feb 21
21
$966/sf
33
54
Feb 28
26
$905/sf
32
57
Mar 7
29
$922/sf
28
57
Mar 14
20
$852/sf
26
58
Mar 21
17
$928/sf
26
60
Mar 28
34
$927/sf
12
65
Apr 4
32
$927/sf
20
69
Apr 11
44
$910/sf
17
62
Apr 18
48
$997/sf
19
66
Apr 25
42
$1,092/sf
18
73
May 2
54
$995/sf
19
70
May 9
61
$910/sf
20
73
May 16
64
$977/sf
22
69
May 23
82
$953/sf
25
59
May 30
78
$951/sf
27
56
Jun 6
94
$963/sf
27
58
Jun 13
98
$961/sf
28
70
Jun 20
91
$935/sf
32
59
Jun 27
111
$894/sf
30
60
Jul 4
112
$910/sf
33
60
Jul 11
122
$912/sf
34
56
Jul 18
103
$893/sf
39
68
Jul 25
108
$883/sf
40
63
Aug 1
110
$887/sf
41
58
Aug 8
124
$941/sf
39
50
Aug 15
114
$945/sf
45
51
Aug 22
123
$948/sf
42
46

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
19
$1,230/sf
90
26
Jan 10
22
$1,210/sf
76
25
Jan 17
19
$1,207/sf
86
23
Jan 24
17
$1,129/sf
92
24
Jan 31
21
$1,172/sf
70
22
Feb 7
19
$1,169/sf
67
25
Feb 14
19
$1,234/sf
65
28
Feb 21
21
$1,279/sf
69
28
Feb 28
22
$1,214/sf
64
25
Mar 7
27
$1,295/sf
60
24
Mar 14
27
$1,201/sf
65
27
Mar 21
23
$1,282/sf
69
31
Mar 28
25
$1,253/sf
67
30
Apr 4
30
$1,199/sf
61
27
Apr 11
32
$1,174/sf
62
31
Apr 18
33
$1,216/sf
68
31
Apr 25
33
$1,219/sf
63
33
May 2
37
$1,164/sf
50
36
May 9
33
$1,132/sf
57
32
May 16
40
$1,119/sf
53
32
May 23
40
$1,135/sf
57
27
May 30
40
$1,178/sf
61
28
Jun 6
43
$1,224/sf
56
28
Jun 13
48
$1,184/sf
52
28
Jun 20
52
$1,117/sf
53
26
Jun 27
60
$1,120/sf
51
19
Jul 4
55
$1,127/sf
58
23
Jul 11
68
$1,140/sf
47
26
Jul 18
66
$1,206/sf
52
25
Jul 25
65
$1,200/sf
54
26
Aug 1
59
$1,191/sf
60
26
Aug 8
58
$1,209/sf
63
22
Aug 15
59
$1,166/sf
62
21
Aug 22
57
$1,163/sf
60
28

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
100
$1,884/sf
128
30
Jan 10
105
$1,864/sf
113
29
Jan 17
109
$1,763/sf
110
34
Jan 24
105
$2,130/sf
114
42
Jan 31
102
$2,114/sf
118
53
Feb 7
109
$2,000/sf
108
50
Feb 14
108
$2,005/sf
109
47
Feb 21
113
$2,008/sf
103
43
Feb 28
111
$1,991/sf
101
47
Mar 7
115
$1,904/sf
91
39
Mar 14
121
$1,893/sf
95
43
Mar 21
116
$1,905/sf
97
44
Mar 28
104
$1,966/sf
97
59
Apr 4
103
$1,929/sf
97
56
Apr 11
106
$1,906/sf
97
55
Apr 18
108
$1,874/sf
100
51
Apr 25
116
$1,829/sf
97
38
May 2
117
$1,781/sf
95
32
May 9
116
$1,831/sf
96
36
May 16
124
$1,854/sf
91
39
May 23
125
$1,855/sf
92
36
May 30
129
$1,706/sf
93
39
Jun 6
131
$1,740/sf
89
33
Jun 13
132
$1,793/sf
86
38
Jun 20
148
$1,772/sf
84
35
Jun 27
153
$1,779/sf
87
29
Jul 4
155
$1,777/sf
82
25
Jul 11
164
$1,759/sf
85
26
Jul 18
170
$1,740/sf
86
26
Jul 25
178
$1,701/sf
84
27
Aug 1
180
$1,696/sf
85
28
Aug 8
173
$1,715/sf
91
24
Aug 15
168
$1,746/sf
89
32
Aug 22
160
$1,718/sf
92
29

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
17
14
152
164
Jan 10
39
18
167
142
Jan 17
34
29
179
145
Jan 24
41
40
173
157
Jan 31
43
40
173
182
Feb 7
43
38
179
179
Feb 14
44
49
168
193
Feb 21
51
38
180
197
Feb 28
39
39
179
205
Mar 7
54
37
191
195
Mar 14
48
51
195
196
Mar 21
39
46
178
207
Mar 28
53
50
185
224
Apr 4
46
40
190
220
Apr 11
61
39
221
213
Apr 18
41
46
224
212
Apr 25
50
43
224
205
May 2
76
37
256
196
May 9
59
46
262
207
May 16
78
48
286
200
May 23
61
42
312
192
May 30
54
44
307
183
Jun 6
70
31
338
183
Jun 13
60
41
354
202
Jun 20
71
25
388
177
Jun 27
73
26
433
159
Jul 4
55
39
432
158
Jul 11
55
24
471
161
Jul 18
49
35
459
168
Jul 25
60
20
480
158
Aug 1
55
35
473
161
Aug 8
40
32
466
151
Aug 15
51
32
451
168
Aug 22
43
29
445
166

Inventory Watch

There was a nice bump of 17 additional pendings in the past week, from 151 to 168. The biggest increase was in the $4,000,000+ category, which grew from 24 to 32 pendings!

There are two pendings priced at $10,000,000+, and 51 active listings!

It doesn’t look like there will be much more change in the quartiles this year:

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Inventory Watch

Inventory tends to be seasonal in nature, so we’ve probably seen the peak for 2022.

We’ve probably seen the peak number of pendings for this year too!

Today, there are only 151 homes in escrow, and in July we had 152 sales.  It’s feasible that we will have fewer than 100 NSDCC sales in a coming month…..or months!

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Inventory Watch

Even if there was a concerted effort to inform the public that mortgage rates are in the 4s (with jumbos in the mid-4s!), it is probably too late in the season to revive much enthusiasm with home buyers.

But there are still people in the hunt. Last week’s count of new pendings was 20, and this week it was 35!

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Inventory Watch


Here’s a look at the difference between the average price per square foot of the active and pending listings.

Of those priced under $3,000,000, it shows how the more-expensive superior properties are the ones going into escrow – and the inferior properties aren’t, even when priced less. Apparently, the gap between them isn’t big enough yet!

NSDCC Actives & Pendings Average List Price per SF

Price Range NSDCC Active Listings Avg. LP/sf NSDCC Pending Listings Avg. LP/sf
$0-$1.5M
53
$755/sf
22
$824/sf
$1.5M – $2.0M
83
$787/sf
29
$1,030/sf
$2.0M – $3.0M
108
$883/sf
63
$1,044/sf
$3.0M – $4.0M
65
$1,200/sf
26
$1,093/sf
$4.0M+
178
$1,701/sf
27
$1,528/sf

Click ‘more…’ below to see the trends of the average LP/sf in each price range.

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