Hey, we had our first monthly increase since June!

Last year the index readings topped out in July, and if that pattern repeats, it will mean that today’s home prices will be the highest of the year.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Over the last week, we’ve seen soundbites on how home prices declined in Southern California and San Francisco for the first time in seven years, but they are talking about the median sales price – which declined a measly 0.1%.  Expect the talking heads to focus on up or down only.

We’re going to be lucky to keep pace with last year’s monthly increases:

Last year the February month-over-month increase was 1.1%, and this year it was only 0.1%.  But because the focus is so binary (up or down only), we might escape further scrutiny as long as we can hit a +0.1% each month.

But it’s pretty likely that our local year-over-year readings are going to go negative next month – right as the selling season wraps up.  Winter might start early this year!