Hey, we had our first monthly increase since June!

Last year the index readings topped out in July, and if that pattern repeats, it will mean that today’s home prices will be the highest of the year.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.42
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.59
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.92
-0.7%
+2.3%
January ’19
251.37
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.70
+0.1%
+1.1%

Over the last week, we’ve seen soundbites on how home prices declined in Southern California and San Francisco for the first time in seven years, but they are talking about the median sales price – which declined a measly 0.1%.  Expect the talking heads to focus on up or down only.

We’re going to be lucky to keep pace with last year’s monthly increases:

Last year the February month-over-month increase was 1.1%, and this year it was only 0.1%.  But because the focus is so binary (up or down only), we might escape further scrutiny as long as we can hit a +0.1% each month.

But it’s pretty likely that our local year-over-year readings are going to go negative next month – right as the selling season wraps up.  Winter might start early this year!

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