Yesterday we saw Diana rolling out the new ‘Recovery Watch Map’:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/11/06/recovery-map/
She mentioned that the supply of San Diego homes for sale has risen a “whopping 31%” year-over-year, and in an instant judgment, says, “You can bet those prices will ease more – the question is, will they go negative?”
(their map now says that our inventory is up 44% Y-o-Y)
With no other explanation, it’s easy to conclude that the sky is falling. Is it?
They are using the Zillow seasonally-adjusted numbers for September:
| September | ||
| 2010 | ||
| 2011 | ||
| 2012 | ||
| 2013 | ||
| 2014 |
Yep, the inventory was 44% higher than it was than last year – when summer’s interest-rate rise caused buyers to gobble up anything resembling a decent buy, leaving the cupboard bare in September. To ignore that fact is short-sighted, especially when you compare to recent history.
When you compare the total number of listings for the first 10 months of the year, you don’t see much of a flood either – only a 3% increase Y-o-Y, and all of those could be re-lists:
2013: 42,746
2014: 44,234
Don’t make decisions just based on the soundbites – look deeper to separate the facts from the hysteria. Get good help!
The general public, and a lot of agents and myself included are usually a little behind on data. We get numbers months after the event has happened.
News from last summers frenzy had sellers expecting that this year, apparently the buyers weren’t believing it or the facts just showed it wasn’t happening. Still, when the news says something the public listens right or wrong.
This has buyers feeling strong and in the drivers seat. It’s a Mexican standoff at this point between sellers and buyers. I think San Diego is giving a few points back over the next 6 months in values.
I don’t always agree with the news, I’ve been calling this slowdown and inventory jump like many but you can’t argue the public considers this info and its affecting their habits.
I agree and it’s why I thought it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Diana is egged on by the doomers, and it is easy to get caught up in it. She doesn’t have many if any people touting how good the market really is, and the silence makes it easier to ignore that side.
More ‘buy low in SandyEggo’ hopefuls….that dream is over.