Yesterday we saw Diana rolling out the new ‘Recovery Watch Map’:
She mentioned that the supply of San Diego homes for sale has risen a “whopping 31%” year-over-year, and in an instant judgment, says, “You can bet those prices will ease more – the question is, will they go negative?”
(their map now says that our inventory is up 44% Y-o-Y)
With no other explanation, it’s easy to conclude that the sky is falling. Is it?
They are using the Zillow seasonally-adjusted numbers for September:
Yep, the inventory was 44% higher than it was than last year – when summer’s interest-rate rise caused buyers to gobble up anything resembling a decent buy, leaving the cupboard bare in September. To ignore that fact is short-sighted, especially when you compare to recent history.
When you compare the total number of listings for the first 10 months of the year, you don’t see much of a flood either – only a 3% increase Y-o-Y, and all of those could be re-lists:
Don’t make decisions just based on the soundbites – look deeper to separate the facts from the hysteria. Get good help!