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Yesterday we saw Diana rolling out the new ‘Recovery Watch Map’:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/11/06/recovery-map/

She mentioned that the supply of San Diego homes for sale has risen a “whopping 31%” year-over-year, and in an instant judgment, says, “You can bet those prices will ease more – the question is, will they go negative?”

(their map now says that our inventory is up 44% Y-o-Y)

With no other explanation, it’s easy to conclude that the sky is falling. Is it?

They are using the Zillow seasonally-adjusted numbers for September:

September
Active Inventory
% change
2010
13,533
x
2011
15,749
+16%
2012
8,475
-46%
2013
6,136
-28%
2014
8,839
+44%

Yep, the inventory was 44% higher than it was than last year – when summer’s interest-rate rise caused buyers to gobble up anything resembling a decent buy, leaving the cupboard bare in September. To ignore that fact is short-sighted, especially when you compare to recent history.

When you compare the total number of listings for the first 10 months of the year, you don’t see much of a flood either – only a 3% increase Y-o-Y, and all of those could be re-lists:

2013: 42,746

2014: 44,234

Don’t make decisions just based on the soundbites – look deeper to separate the facts from the hysteria. Get good help!

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