This may be a preliminary look, but there won’t be many more late reporters.Ā Ā Agents are supposed to mark theirĀ sales closed within 48 hours, and we’re a week out.Ā But even considering the typical end-of-summer slowdown, it looks like sales are plunging.
Today, the MLS showsĀ a paltry 234 detached-home sales last month, the lowest August total of the last four years:
| Year | ||||
| Aug ’09 | ||||
| Aug ’10 | ||||
| Aug ’11 | ||||
| Aug ’12 | ||||
| Aug ’13 | ||||
| Jul ’14 | ||||
| Aug ’14 |
While we enjoyed some frenzy-like months during the 2014 selling season, it looks like we’re heading back to the far-more mundane pace of 3-5 years ago.
For sellers who tacked on an extra 5% to 10% to your list price:Ā If it doesn’t work, at least adjust downward fastĀ enough that the urgency stays higher, and you beat the holidays – Halloween isĀ only seven weeks away!
Don’t say “plunging.”
Say “returning to traditional seasonality.”
See? Now, your vocabulary expanded, let’s work on that stubborn streak of honesty.
š
Rates seem to be at their year lows. Volumes declining. Investors evaporating. Almost as if all the action was in the first half.
Yes, and sellers will cancel their listing before believing that they missed their chance…again!!!
Once the Case-Shiller starts hitting negative readings month-over-month (coming soon!) it will clear out all the unmotivated folks – including agents.
P.S. You’re looking good for winning the forecaster’s grand prize, but Mozart is still in the running.
Grand Prize? Bubbleinfo coffee cup!
Darn! I wish there were a site that had predicted this. Even better if I had gone on the record. š
Still. Silver lining. Price it right and it will sell. Picking up nickels in front of a steam roller is not a game nor investment nor a way to time where you want to live.
Grand Prize? Bubbleinfo coffee cup!
I know exactly the coffee to put in it!
For the record:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2013/12/30/2014-predictions/
Market definitely changing.
Condos in our (relatively inexpensive) complex that moved quickly at list are now sitting with zero interest despite repeated reductions.
That spurred me to run Trulia searches with the SFH / “reduced prices, past week” filters, and the screen just lit up with homes. Across every price range, too, including a number of 8-figure properties.
Things are getting interesting again.
Seems more a seasonal lull than a crash being imminent.
Those that must sell will lower their price some I suspect so there could be a few good deals out there.
Those that donāt have to sell will pack it in until next spring.
Anyway IMO.
Agreed, and more will be packing it in, rather than lowering their price.
I’m not sure you can call it seasonal when sales are 20% down in over the same month (season) as the year prior.
Nothing moves in percentages that large without something big happening. It’s not seasonality, it’s reality. Homes are too expensive for a certain buyer to want to participate as actively as they once had.
Investors which made up a huge portion of the market are no longer willing to play ball as actively. This leaves a vacancy in the market. A good and bad thing, but ultimately it will leave prices flat. Again, not a bad thing.