What will slow or stop our current frenzy?
The demand is so deep that it appears that buyers will be gobbling up the usual springtime surge of new inventory…..if there is a surge.
Who will be listing?
We can’t expect much from the banks, they quit foreclosing and will drip out whatever they have left.
Because the large investment firms got in so cheap and are enjoying the rising rents, they will be happy to hold long-term, rather than to cash out and pay capitals-gains tax (a big stumbling block for all investors).
The homeowners who are underwater will want to hold out and see if their previous equity might re-appear.
There are 77 million baby boomers, the oldest of which are heading into their retirement years. Can we expect more inventory from them?
From the AARP video below:
- Only 9% of boomers are affluent (making over $150,000/year pre-tax)
- 25% of boomers have no savings
- 33% of boomers don’t have a retirement account
- Only 11% plan to stop working
Won’t there be an exodus of baby boomers who are down-sizing, or have to cash out their equity to pay for living expenses for them and their kids/parents?
According to the survey:
- Only 6% of boomers plan to downsize
- 76% of boomers plan to “age in place” (not move), or buy a larger home.
Will the only relief to this frenzy be affordability, or lack thereof?
Prop 13 will lock a lot of boomers in. They’re living for just about free if they’ve paid off their mortgage, and that’s a lot more affordable than moving to a retirement community or even a horrible place like Phoenix.
Agreed, and with the rules on capital gains the elderly are incentivized to own their property in a trust and have the trustees take over virtually tax-free.
Expect a good portion of the future inventory to be estate sales, and the houses look all-original like in the last video.
Phoenix = God’s waiting room.