The local Case-Shiller index for October dropped again, for the third month in a row. The SD index, which was 165.02 in July, is now down to 159.99 (a plunge of 3%), though year-over-year it’s still up 3%.
A link to the Case-Shiller press release.
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Jim Klinge
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Breaking news from October.
Mozart,
You need time to calculate and analyze what’s going on. If you read the article you would have seen the release date of “December 28, 2010” in the first sentence.
I suppose you assume the data from October through December will be much better?
It’s a great time to buy.
From the data I track I expect case shiller to remain relatively flat for the next couple of quarters. October was a bad month for prices but they rebounded a bit in November/December so far. Of course for the most part prices haven’t gotten back to the levels seen in the middle of summer. For sack of transparency. In the summer months 92126 was right around $260/sqft with August being a bit of an outlier at $237. October dropped significantly to $230 but now were back around $240 again for November and December. Basically prices have been stuck in a pretty narrow 5-10% band for the past 18 months or so.
For the benchmark market I use I’d say the major breakout levels would be price/sqft staying below $230 for a period of 3 months or trading above $260 for a period of 3 months. That would probably signify the next major wave one way or the other.
What is interesting is that PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) of Walnut Creek, predicted way back in 2007 in a report, that the low point of the market would be September 2011. Interesting that they seem to have been right on the mark. They simply “ran the numbers” and came up with the prediction. I would guess if the banks finally release some of the foreclosed houses, we could see a fast dip, and then a slow recovery – this “Chinese Water Torture” of slow foreclosures is killing the market.
On a brighter note – Bosa Development has now sold 80% of their luxury Bayside Tower downtown – went on the market in 2008, so the rich still have some money.
In my building, the Electra, we are re-selling about one or two units a month – mostly cash buyers, and some overseas Chinese.
So now potential lookilous will start throwing around terms like “double dip” and watch what will happen- potential buyers that have held off are the “smart ones” and there is no way in Hell they will risk being knife catchers now.
double dip is the new black.
Shadash- I probably shouldn’t have to explain this to you since you are an “economist”, but I’ll do it anyways. Case-Shiller is a great index but it’s always kind of late to the scene. Home prices and activity did pick-up in November & December after slowing down in October. That was my point.
What’s been interesting is that November and December were fairly strong as compared to usual after a definite drop in October.
If anyone relies on Case Shiller for an index to make decisions they are going to be behind the curve and with the herd.
Mozart – that is my impression also, that November and December have seen at least more real estate traffic. I still have a few Realtor friends downtown, and they all were pretty busy in the past two months. Perhaps it is the soaring stock market??
CS data may be backward looking, but forward looking items related to real estate in San Diego, things like interest rates increasing, taxes going up, talk of MID going away, murmurs of Prop 13 changes, employment down, wages down…… how in the world could anyone think real estate prices are going to do anything but fall over the next couple years.
The REIT lobbied well to try to put a floor under home prices, but that is crumbling finally and the double dip is beginning.
Aside from real estate purchasing, renting is going Tango Unicorn in downtown. I rent a newer condo next to Petco park and ever since that Aircraft carrier USS Nimitz decided to leave San Diego and take all those sailors to Washington for their new home port, I have seen nothing but open vacancies posted in our mail room with no one moving in and tons of people moving out.
I work in the defense industry and we are a huge part of the San Diego economy, we are closing offices left and right and laying off in earnest. In the 5 years I’ve worked here not one single person from back then is still employeed in this industry. Most who can are fleeing San Diego.
how in the world could anyone think real estate prices are going to do anything but fall over the next couple years.
Are you open?
“What’s been interesting is that November and December were fairly strong as compared to usual after a definite drop in October.”
November and December seem to be better than October but slightly lower than September and August so I’d expect the CS to be flat or drop ever so slightly for the next couple of months considering it’s a 3 month average.
I really don’t think we’ll get much of a gauge on the real estate market until late February, early March although if January and or early February is decent I’d expect quite a bit of optimism heading into the selling season.
With the number of houses reasonably constant and the number of dollars to pay for them vastly increased how can house prices (and everyting else from sticks to bricks to petrol) NOT increase over the long term?
sorry, “everything”