Everyone is wondering if home prices are going to come down, so the mainstream media is happy to juice the conversation with a sexy headline – which, if you are a casual reader, will make you think that lower prices are on the way. Then they throw in a quote from a real estate expert:

San Diego metro, which includes all of San Diego County, ranked 15th in the 20-city index — a big change considering the region had the fastest-rising home prices in the U.S. for six months from late 2023 into the start of 2024.

The fastest-rising markets in March were New York, up 7.96%; Chicago, up 6.5%; and Cleveland, up 5.9%.

Zillow economist Orphe Divounguy said the share of nationwide listings with a price cut in March hit their highest rate in six years. He said homes were taking longer to sell, resulting in some sellers slashing prices.

“A price correction is expected,” he wrote, “(which will) result in a modest recovery in sales over the coming year, with Zillow forecasting sales to continue bouncing along the bottom.”

It’s not that simple.

The national statistics will probably prove him right, but what will those mean to the local home buyer or seller? Nothing. But it might sell some newspapers!

Let’s drill down just a little.

If you want to get a screaming deal on a dump or fixer, your time has arrived. You will probably spend the next 3-12 months of your life wrestling with the city to get permits, battling with contractors to get what you want (and what you paid for), and you will likely spend more money than ever expected. A lot more.

You might end up thinking that buying a creampuff was a better idea.

Most will prefer to buy a nice home. One that is move-in ready, and has the more-modern conveniences so it will last you for the foreseeable future without having to fix anything.

Are those going to have price cuts too?

Here’s an example that’s fresh off the hotsheet this morning:

The seller had to discount $40,000, but hey, that’s a price cut! They still sold it for 85% more than they paid for the home when it was new in 2019, which is in line with stats we saw earlier this week.

The discounts will be on the homes that most people don’t want to buy.

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