Inventory Watch

by | Dec 18, 2023 | 2024, Inventory | 1 comment

As the real estate market continues to ‘normalize’ and we get used to a perpetually low-inventory environment, these are factors that will greet the players in 2024:

  1. The NSDCC median list price today is $4,250,000, the highest ever.
  2. There are 19 homes for sale under $1,500,000 between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
  3. The current inventory of 314 NSDCC houses for sale couldn’t be more picked over.
  4. Yet, the currently unsold inventory will be a significant factor in creating the new list prices in 2024.
  5. Bidding wars on attractively-priced homes for sale.

In the graph above, it looks like the national market gets off to a similar start every year. Over the last three years, the showings peaked in early-April, and then dwindled down.

The market intensity should be red hot in the first quarter of 2024! But will the pricing cause sales?

The reasonable sellers in early 2024 should be greatly rewarded.

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
22
$719/sf
75
15
Jan 9
26
$687/sf
50
14
Jan 16
23
$701/sf
52
20
Jan 23
25
$751/sf
60
21
Jan 30
23
$788/sf
45
25
Feb 6
18
$750/sf
59
24
Feb 13
18
$770/sf
48
26
Feb 20
17
$778/sf
49
26
Feb 27
18
$802/sf
48
23
Mar 6
22
$802/sf
44
14
Mar 13
22
$747/sf
45
16
Mar 20
16
$826/sf
49
21
Mar 27
17
$853/sf
47
20
Apr 3
19
$803/sf
37
20
Apr 10
11
$778/sf
53
30
Apr 17
15
$690/sf
44
27
Apr 24
12
$682/sf
33
25
May 1
11
$795/sf
35
27
May 8
14
$780/sf
33
24
May 15
16
$770/sf
37
22
May 22
21
$747/sf
45
18
May 29
20
$757/sf
52
21
Jun 5
23
$755/sf
49
20
Jun 12
17
$711/sf
31
32
Jun 19
16
$674/sf
34
33
Jun 26
20
$677/sf
32
29
Jul 3
21
$645/sf
28
33
Jul 10
23
$692/sf
30
32
Jul 17
21
$730/sf
37
30
Jul 24
21
$704/sf
37
32
Jul 31
21
$713/sf
44
27
Aug 7
22
$692/sf
50
25
Aug 14
24
$693/sf
48
24
Aug 21
22
$688/sf
25
29
Aug 28
25
$679/sf
47
38
Sep 4
23
$718/sf
50
36
Sep 11
29
$685/sf
44
33
Sep 18
28
$696/sf
35
28
Sep 25
31
$725/sf
36
25
Oct 2
24
$711/sf
50
25
Oct 9
29
$742/sf
47
20
Oct 16
35
$762/sf
45
14
Oct 23
31
$745/sf
43
18
Oct 30
28
$777/sf
40
16
Nov 6
28
$791/sf
41
16
Nov 13
26
$794/sf
46
16
Nov 20
31
$849/sf
49
10
Nov 27
26
$780/sf
57
15
Dec 4
23
$805/sf
54
17
Dec 11
23
$769/sf
49
18
Dec 18
19
$784/sf
55
20

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
45
$809/sf
60
18
Jan 9
55
$828/sf
53
19
Jan 16
46
$838/sf
53
30
Jan 23
43
$793/sf
52
31
Jan 30
40
$778/sf
54
34
Feb 6
42
$814/sf
46
30
Feb 13
35
$823/sf
51
39
Feb 20
34
$801/sf
47
40
Feb 27
27
$846/sf
33
45
Mar 6
29
$893/sf
33
41
Mar 13
32
$850/sf
33
39
Mar 20
27
$872/sf
36
41
Mar 27
22
$832/sf
39
36
Apr 3
21
$779/sf
27
36
Apr 10
22
$816/sf
26
33
Apr 17
27
$797/sf
21
33
Apr 24
28
$856/sf
31
34
Apr 24
28
$856/sf
31
34
May 1
30
$789/sf
28
36
May 8
36
$808/sf
25
37
May 15
33
$776/sf
33
44
May 22
35
$818/sf
36
44
May 29
38
$786/sf
33
40
Jun 5
39
$791/sf
34
30
Jun 12
37
$754/sf
37
32
Jun 19
36
$779/sf
35
35
Jun 26
39
$766/sf
34
36
Jul 3
39
$776/sf
41
40
Jul 10
45
$780/sf
37
39
Jul 17
53
$807/sf
29
36
Jul 24
51
$787/sf
32
38
Jul 31
51
$763/sf
30
39
Aug 7
45
$750/sf
36
39
Aug 14
42
$739/sf
38
39
Aug 21
39
$707/sf
29
46
Aug 28
51
$723/sf
30
39
Sep 4
46
$739/sf
31
30
Sep 11
42
$771/sf
27
30
Sep 18
40
$805/sf
27
31
Sep 25
38
$851/sf
28
33
Oct 2
45
$827/sf
28
27
Oct 9
43
$891/sf
32
27
Oct 16
48
$848/sf
32
30
Oct 23
48
$837/sf
34
26
Oct 30
49
$829/sf
34
30
Nov 6
51
$825/sf
36
23
Nov 13
52
$826/sf
38
24
Nov 20
65
$863/sf
35
19
Nov 27
53
$868/sf
42
29
Dec 4
53
$843/sf
43
22
Dec 11
44
$831/sf
52
34
Dec 18
33
$809/sf
59
33

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
52
$869/sf
69
30
Jan 9
57
$940/sf
66
31
Jan 16
50
$948/sf
61
36
Jan 23
51
$949/sf
58
35
Jan 30
54
$964/sf
55
34
Feb 6
60
$930/sf
51
42
Feb 13
51
$1,038/sf
52
47
Feb 20
58
$1,022/sf
47
46
Feb 27
56
$1,064/sf
52
49
Mar 6
57
$995/sf
50
50
Mar 13
55
$1,015/sf
53
47
Mar 20
50
$1,011/sf
58
50
Mar 27
54
$1,039/sf
49
47
Apr 3
54
$1,035/sf
52
38
Apr 10
55
$1,004/sf
48
42
Apr 17
64
$985/sf
47
46
Apr 24
57
$1,001/sf
43
50
May 1
57
$1,008/sf
42
45
May 8
68
$1,031/sf
36
41
May 15
71
$1,007/sf
34
39
May 22
77
$1,003/sf
34
38
May 29
74
$1,002/sf
39
43
Jun 5
77
$991/sf
42
44
Jun 12
82
$986/sf
48
45
Jun 19
90
$978/sf
48
33
Jun 26
90
$1,015/sf
49
33
Jul 3
92
$1,019/sf
49
36
Jul 10
89
$1,021/sf
50
44
Jul 17
97
$1,013/sf
48
42
Jul 24
91
$1,010/sf
48
42
Jul 31
81
$999/sf
56
52
Aug 7
81
$1,011/sf
53
49
Aug 14
76
$996/sf
58
48
Aug 21
71
$959/sf
45
49
Aug 28
82
$990/sf
46
43
Sep 4
81
$1,022/sf
46
39
Sep 11
84
$1,017/sf
44
39
Sep 18
82
$1,031/sf
43
44
Sep 25
87
$1,079/sf
44
41
Oct 2
83
$1,081/sf
43
44
Oct 9
83
$1,056/sf
46
42
Oct 16
76
$1,059/sf
48
42
Oct 23
78
$1,068/sf
46
47
Oct 30
72
$1,068/sf
53
38
Nov 6
80
$1,051/sf
46
33
Nov 13
73
$1,039/sf
54
26
Nov 20
67
$1,063/sf
52
35
Nov 27
68
$1,048/sf
54
32
Dec 4
66
$1,080/sf
52
34
Dec 11
58
$1,072/sf
58
35
Dec 18
64
$1,035/sf
54
29

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
29
$1,236/sf
85
6
Jan 9
29
$1,180/sf
80
5
Jan 16
31
$1,196/sf
73
8
Jan 23
33
$1,201/sf
71
7
Jan 30
37
$1,218/sf
70
6
Feb 6
34
$1,236/sf
75
12
Feb 13
43
$1,333/sf
68
11
Feb 20
39
$1,392/sf
71
18
Feb 27
37
$1,323/sf
68
22
Mar 6
49
$1,222/sf
56
20
Mar 13
49
$1,312/sf
49
22
Mar 20
46
$1,321/sf
52
25
Mar 27
50
$1,329/sf
52
25
Apr 3
49
$1,342/sf
51
23
Apr 10
50
$1,321/sf
57
24
Apr 17
47
$1,342/sf
59
26
Apr 24
49
$1,281/sf
63
28
May 1
53
$1,227/sf
62
23
May 8
55
$1,122/sf
63
19
May 15
57
$1,211/sf
59
19
May 22
59
$1,170/sf
61
19
May 29
60
$1,171/sf
60
17
Jun 5
70
$1,178/sf
55
15
Jun 12
64
$1,198/sf
53
18
Jun 19
67
$1,184/sf
54
20
Jun 26
66
$1,204/sf
58
25
Jul 3
63
$1,215/sf
58
22
Jul 10
72
$1,204/sf
59
23
Jul 17
79
$1,173/sf
64
22
Jul 24
78
$1,182/sf
63
23
Jul 31
69
$1,181/sf
66
22
Aug 7
72
$1,214/sf
65
19
Aug 14
65
$1,224/sf
67
26
Aug 21
66
$1,236/sf
57
24
Aug 28
64
$1,232/sf
64
20
Sep 4
59
$1,215/sf
70
21
Sep 11
50
$1,134/sf
78
22
Sep 18
46
$1,150/sf
80
20
Sep 25
47
$1,182/sf
84
20
Oct 2
45
$1,221/sf
80
15
Oct 9
47
$1,205/sf
75
10
Oct 16
49
$1,192/sf
80
15
Oct 23
49
$1,201/sf
71
13
Oct 30
47
$1,191/sf
73
14
Nov 6
46
$1,183/sf
77
17
Nov 13
44
$1,206/sf
77
18
Nov 20
48
$1,176/sf
74
14
Nov 27
47
$1,191/sf
78
13
Dec 4
46
$1,164/sf
70
14
Dec 11
47
$1,159/sf
76
16
Dec 18
44
$1,174/sf
75
14

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
121
$1,744/sf
126
21
Jan 9
119
$1,716/sf
123
20
Jan 16
120
$1,761/sf
121
26
Jan 23
122
$1,707/sf
119
27
Jan 30
120
$1,680/sf
121
30
Feb 6
125
$1,714/sf
118
28
Feb 13
121
$1,750/sf
116
32
Feb 20
129
$1,725/sf
112
33
Feb 27
124
$1,743/sf
115
31
Mar 6
122
$1,753/sf
109
28
Mar 13
120
$1,782/sf
109
32
Mar 20
129
$1,783/sf
106
28
Mar 27
127
$1,781/sf
106
27
Apr 3
131
$1,774/sf
105
27
Apr 10
136
$1,788/sf
107
24
Apr 17
140
$1,776/sf
108
27
Apr 24
141
$1,771/sf
107
31
May 1
142
$1,760/sf
105
30
May 8
140
$1,737/sf
104
32
May 15
141
$1,812/sf
107
37
May 22
145
$1,816/sf
106
29
May 29
142
$1,846/sf
110
36
Jun 5
152
$1,791/sf
107
31
Jun 12
163
$1,777/sf
106
24
Jun 19
166
$1,779/sf
102
26
Jun 26
179
$1,758/sf
98
29
Jul 3
184
$1,670/sf
91
39
Jul 10
192
$1,653/sf
92
42
Jul 17
187
$1,666/sf
94
47
Jul 24
185
$1,668/sf
98
49
Jul 31
184
$1,653/sf
102
51
Aug 7
178
$1,639/sf
101
51
Aug 14
182
$1,625/sf
106
45
Aug 21
177
$1,612/sf
100
43
Aug 28
181
$1,644/sf
106
40
Sep 4
179
$1,646/sf
109
32
Sep 11
177
$1,683/sf
105
32
Sep 18
169
$1,660/sf
106
29
Sep 25
183
$1,662/sf
106
27
Oct 2
180
$1,676/sf
107
25
Oct 9
190
$1,647/sf
103
30
Oct 16
185
$1,613/sf
104
33
Oct 23
181
$1,655/sf
106
32
Oct 30
184
$1,618/sf
107
31
Nov 6
172
$1,622/sf
106
32
Nov 13
170
$1,645/sf
105
31
Nov 20
174
$1,654/sf
106
25
Nov 27
164
$1,663/sf
113
26
Dec 4
161
$1,640/sf
115
21
Dec 11
167
$1,735/sf
112
21
Dec 18
161
$1,744/sf
114
19

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 2, 2023
11
6
263
89
Jan 9
36
15
277
88
Jan 16
36
34
266
114
Jan 23
36
22
269
116
Jan 30
32
25
272
123
Feb 6
46
33
275
131
Feb 13
30
35
265
150
Feb 20
43
34
274
158
Feb 27
27
30
260
165
Mar 6
45
28
276
150
Mar 13
38
38
274
154
Mar 20
39
37
265
164
Mar 27
36
25
267
153
Apr 3
37
28
271
143
Apr 10
36
39
272
151
Apr 17
47
27
291
157
Apr 24
46
41
282
167
May 1
59
31
288
159
May 8
53
26
310
151
May 15
48
31
315
157
May 22
50
24
332
145
May 29
43
37
325
154
Jun 5
43
17
352
137
Jun 12
52
36
357
146
Jun 19
48
30
369
143
Jun 26
65
26
391
148
Jul 3
60
48
394
166
Jul 10
51
34
415
176
Jul 17
55
28
430
173
Jul 24
37
43
419
184
Jul 31
48
44
399
187
Aug 7
43
32
390
181
Aug 14
36
24
384
178
Aug 21
41
45
371
187
Aug 28
37
27
395
177
Sep 4
35
29
378
155
Sep 11
40
30
373
155
Sep 18
37
29
369
145
Sep 25
39
20
382
141
Oct 2
44
31
372
132
Oct 9
45
23
384
127
Oct 16
31
23
381
126
Oct 23
36
26
379
131
Oct 30
28
17
371
125
Nov 6
30
23
369
118
Nov 13
29
16
358
112
Nov 20
41
16
376
100
Nov 27
13
15
352
106
Dec 4
34
24
340
111
Dec 11
25
24
332
118
Dec 18
21
12
314
109

NSDCC Weekly LP Quartiles

Week
1st Quartile
2nd Quartile (Median LP)
3rd Quartile
Jan 2, 2023
$2,095,000
$3,695,000
$5,995,000
Jan 9
$1,990,000
$3,495,000
$5,775,000
Jan 16
$2,000,000
$3,574,000
$5,995,000
Jan 23
$2,099,000
$3,595,000
$5,999,000
Jan 30
$2,195,000
$3,525,000
$5,942,000
Feb 6
$2,195,000
$3,598,000
$6,845,000
Feb 13
$2,300,000
$3,795,000
$6,495,000
Feb 20
$2,397,500
$3,950,000
$6,197,500
Feb 27
$2,480,800
$3,970,000
$6,845,000
Mar 6
$2,395,000
$3,749,500
$5,995,000
Mar 13
$2,397,000
$3,772,500
$5,997,000
Mar 20
$2,580,000
$3,995,000
$6,800,000
Mar 27
$2,595,000
$3,995,000
$6,845,000
Apr 3
$2,699,000
$3,995,000
$6,750,000
Apr 10
$2,799,500
$4,074,997
$6,895,000
Apr 17
$2,600,000
$3,995,000
$6,597,000
Apr 24
$2,685,000
$4,074,997
$6,895,000
May 1
$2,695,000
$3,999,000
$6,495,000
May 8
$2,525,000
$3,849,949
$5,946,000
May 15
$2,495,000
$3,749,400
$5,950,000
May 22
$2,444,000
$3,695,400
$6,000,000
May 29
$2,495,000
$3,699,000
$6,395,000
Jun 5
$2,450,000
$3,641,500
$6,000,000
Jun 12
$2,499,900
$3,799,999
$6,496,000
Jun 19
$2,495,000
$3,750,000
$6,497,000
Jun 26
$2,450,000
$3,799,000
$6,495,000
Jul 3
$2,479,000
$3,891,500
$6,235,000
Jul 10
$2,468,000
$3,900,000
$5,998,985
Jul 17
$2,350,000
$3,669,000
$5,949,000
Jul 24
$2,399,000
$3,799,999
$5,995,000
Jul 31
$2,395,000
$3,888,000
$6,245,000
Aug 7
$2,492,000
$3,895,000
$6,345,000
Aug 14
$2,495,000
$3,995,000
$6,499,000
Aug 21
$2,499,000
$3,995,000
$6,395,000
Aug 28
$2,395,000
$3,850,000
$6,245,000
Sep 4
$2,372,500
$3,957,500
$6,446,500
Sep 11
$2,299,500
$3,995.000
$6,845,000
Sep 18
$2,349,600
$3,995,000
$6,750,000
Sep 25
$2,349,500
$3,991,500
$6,695,000
Oct 2
$2,350,000
$3,995,000
$6,700,000
Oct 9
$2,372,500
$3,999,450
$6,750,000
Oct 16
$2,325,000
$3,995,000
$6,650,000
Oct 23
$2,299,000
$3,995,000
$6,695,000
Oct 30
$2,300,000
$3,999,000
$6,750,000
Nov 6
$2,250,000
$3,888,888
$6,650,000
Nov 13
$2,225,000
$3,893,444
$6,995,000
Nov 20
$2,100,000
$3,805,000
$6,950,000
Nov 27
$2,199,999
$3,869,444
$6,950,000
Dec 4
$2,499,999
$3,896,500
$6,995,000
Dec 11
$2,350,000
$4,100,000
$7,880,000
Dec 18
$2,497,000
$4,250,000
$7,950,000
author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
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1 Comment

  1. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on December 18, 2023 at 8:33 am

    What is guaranteed NOT to happen is that lower rates will cause more homeowners to give up their 3% rate.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillow-says-homeowners-change-opinion-153020550.html

    What these prognosticators never consider is how hard it is to find a better house nearby, regardless of rates.

    For the 3-percenters, the only way they move is if they leave town, and that probably means leaving the state to make it worth it. They may have a good reason to move, but they aren’t going to sell a decent house and pay a higher price AND rate unless money doesn’t matter to them.

    If the comment section isn’t working, it should be soon!

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