The experts say that the majority of homeowners are locked into their homes by their low mortgage rate, and if/when today’s high rates come down, then the inventory of homes for sale will bounce back.

Boy, are they going to be disappointed.

For the last 10-12 years, San Diegans have been buying their ‘forever home’, whether they knew it or not. They are locked into their home all right, and their low rate is only one of the reasons – with two other facts being more of a burden:

  1. Difficulty of finding a better home at a reasonable price.
  2. Capital-gains taxes in the six figures.
  3. Ultra-low mortgage rate.

If mortgage rates magically came back to the 3% to 4% range, would it make sellers shrug off the first two? If rates came down to the 2% to 3% range? They would still need a very good reason to move, and endure the first two problems.

The low-inventory environment is here to stay.

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