With mortgage rates blowing through the fives and another Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, I think we can declare that the frenzy is over.
Or at least we can expect that it’s over in the buyers’ minds.
But one fact remains the same: There still isn’t anything to buy.
Will there be a surge of new listings? It would be very unlikely. If homeowners weren’t motivated to sell for all-time record prices during ideal conditions, they won’t be interested in the thought of taking less either.
There will be a transition period while buyers, sellers, and agents get comfortable with the new environment. The talking heads will keep reminding us that rates are still historically low, and that buyers have more negotiating power now (up from zero, previously).
By the time we get to the Selling Season of 2023 though, the market players (buyers, sellers, and agents) should establish a decent comfort level with the direction of the variables.
The big question is: What will happen between now and February?
We can probably count on these:
- Superior homes that are priced at 10% under recent comps will sell.
- Inferior homes that are priced at 20% under recent comps will sell.
- Buyers will wait it out, sellers will wait it out, and agents will keep doing what they’ve been doing and ignore anything that’s negative.
- Sales will plunge.
Ponder the other likely possibilities:
- There are going to be occasional deals, and almost all of them will be on inferior properties. Because all homes will need more improvements to be able to sell for retail, more agents will be inclined to recommend a dump-and-run on the original-looking homes.
- There will be a ton of false starts. We are already seeing new listings get cancelled pre-maturely or being refreshed with a new and improved price (but not improved enough to make a difference). There will also be wicked buyer’s remorse as friends and family react violently to those buying now.
- Surprisingly, there will be bidding wars and homes selling over their list price. Of the 55 NSDCC houses that have closed in June, 62% of them sold for more than their list price. It’s almost like an addiction!
The market will be driven by the out-of-town buyers who really want and need to live here. They didn’t let higher prices stop them, and neither will higher rates. What are they going to do? Not move here? There might be fewer of them, and they might take longer, but they will keep coming – count on it.
We will survive this!
Purchasing a home in a rapidly appreciating and hypercompetitive housing market can feel like winning the lottery. But a new Zillow survey finds even those who are successful often make compromises and can suffer from buyer’s remorse. Current and aspiring home shoppers can learn from the regrets of these pandemic-era buyers with help from new technology and a housing market that could offer buyers a bit more breathing room.
Zillow’s survey finds three-quarters of those who successfully purchased a home in the past two years say they have at least one regret about the home they bought (75%). About one-third of new buyers regret buying a home that needs more work or maintenance than expected (32%). A similar percentage regret buying a home that is too small (31%).
“The pandemic-driven feeding frenzy in the for-sale market added challenges for buyers, especially those purchasing for the first time,” said Zillow population scientist Manny Garcia. “This research suggests many of those buyers ended up in a home that was less than ideal. It’s important to remember that even in a balanced market, most buyers have to make compromises to stay within their budget. However, to minimize regret, aspiring buyers would be wise to establish where they’re willing to compromise and what’s a deal breaker before shopping.”
A checklist can help home shoppers establish their needs versus their wants. When shopping with a partner, the right home should meet the needs of both people to avoid regrets and resentment. On the Zillow app, buyers can add a shopping partner to share listings and use SharePlay to make collaborative shopping easier.
Most successful buyers (74%) wish they had done at least one thing differently during the shopping process, with 38% wishing they had spent more time searching for a home or weighing their options. About one-quarter would have shopped for and purchased a home in a different area (28%).
A vast majority of successful buyers say they had to make at least one compromise in order to afford their home (81%). Nearly 2 in 5 say they ended up in a location that increased their commute time (39%), while 32% purchased a home that was smaller than they initially planned to buy.
“Buyers can get distracted by a pretty kitchen or great staging when they should concentrate instead on a home’s two biggest factors: its layout and location. It’s very tough to change both,” said Seattle-based Zillow Premier Agent partner Lucas Pinto, team lead at the Lucas Pinto Real Estate Group, Compass. “A great agent can reframe a buyer’s home search and keep them focused on their priorities, helping them make a confident, informed purchase decision.”
http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2022-02-08-75-of-recent-home-buyers-have-regrets-about-their-new-home
Plus the twitter thread of the Compass strategist with a lot of comments:
https://twitter.com/marsdenkline/status/1535241800276856832