My favorite pet peeve of the media insisting that ‘home prices’ and market conditions are interchangeable with the direction of the median-sales-price made the front page of the newspaper today.
But there is more to it.
Here are other factors they mentioned in the story:
- The number of listings in August were 47% fewer than in August, 2019.
- The median sales price for condos hit an all-time high, as more buyers get priced out of single-family homes and are forced to consider other alternatives.
- The quality of the homes for sale was crap.
The truth? Due to seasonality – which does play a role as summer closes out – it is better to compare to previous Augusts, not July. But the best indicator of market health is the number of sales:
San Diego County Detached-Home Sales, August
| Year | |||
| 2017 | |||
| 2018 | |||
| 2019 | |||
| 2020 | |||
| 2021 |
There have been fewer listings (-16% YTD) than in 2019, yet there were MORE AUGUST SALES!
Never mind that the +15% YoY increase in the median sales price was an all-time high for August, and ignoring that the median market time was nearly identical to August, 2020 (which will go down as the most hysterical frenzy in the history of real estate), just that the number of sales last month were similar to previous Augusts indicates that the market is fine.
Yet the UT headline writer wants you to think there’s a problem.
Get Good Help!
It is a stretch to call two “down” months in a row after a record 3 months up a cooling. Five months from $680k to $725k is not cooling. +9k/mo is not cooling.
News outlets are ever more willing to seek “man bites dog” stories for eyeballs.