To help get a sense of the frenzy conditions, let’s monitor the number of active & pending listings per area.
If the active (unsold) listings start to rise, we will know that pricing is becoming an issue.
But so far, the demand for detached homes between Carlsbad and La Jolla is solid, and buyers are enduring prices that are 20% to 30% higher than last year:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
| Town or Area | ||||
| Cardiff | ||||
| Carlsbad NW | ||||
| Carlsbad SE | ||||
| Carlsbad NE | ||||
| Carlsbad SW | ||||
| Carmel Valley | ||||
| Del Mar | ||||
| Encinitas | ||||
| La Jolla | ||||
| RSF | ||||
| RSF | ||||
| Solana Beach | ||||
| NSDCC |
The 92009, 92011 and 92130 (SE Carlsbad, SW Carlsbad, and Carmel Valley) are scorching hot, with 4x, 4x and 3x as many pendings as actives! But Rancho Santa Fe is the most impressive of all. There have been times when there were 10x as many actives as pendings in 92067 – today it’s 1.4x!
With the 30-day closings, there shouldn’t be any drastic changes here – let’s examine the trends over time.
We can also track the average market times too. Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:
I’ll run this every couple of weeks.
Who is buying up the homes? I live in Carlsbad and looking at redfin at the last 3 months in my neighborhood, 7 homes sold. All 7 sold for 12%-20% over list price with half of them closing in 2 weeks which probably means cash offers. These can’t be families since I would think that anyone looking to buy would look in a particular range. If your range is 900k- 1 mil, then potential buyers need to be looking in the non-existant 800k range just to bring a 900k-1 mil competitive bid, right? I couldn’t imagine them trying to put down an extra 200k that wasn’t in their budget. In which case anyone winning a 20% over list price bid, wouldn’t they feel like they spent an extra 200k more then the home was worth? Real estate is manipulated, but as long as an agent gets money in the pocket why would they want to list the next house lower for less commission. Everything goes up forever right.
Pretty much.