For us data geeks, here are some raw numbers to ponder.
Between La Jolla and Carlsbad, there are three prime zip codes – 92009 (SE Carlsbad), 92024 (Encinitas), and 92130 (Carmel Valley) – that are the dominant target zones for buyers of the mid-range home (which today is $1.2M to $2.0M).
According to the Census, there are a total of 35,146 one-unit single-family residences in these three zips, so let’s use this mid-range group to consider the trends:
Number of Listings & Sales, May 1 to Apr 30
The most-recent inventory count is in line with previous years – it is the number of sales that are so astonishing. The big winners are those inferior homes that are getting scooped up in the frenzy, for which buyers are overpaying just to win something.
In an area of 35,146 houses, there are 86 for sale today (0.2%), with a median list price of $2,124,500. No wonder the inferior homes are getting scooped up.
Buyers on the lower-end have to feel like they are getting closer to being priced out every day.
Of the 13,715 recent sales, 10,000 of them were probably forever homes – or forever rentals – and unlikely to come back onto the market for 10-20 years (at best). The lean inventory will continue just because we won’t have the turnover we’ve had in past decades when it was easier to move around.