Prime Mid-Range

by | May 22, 2021 | 2021, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

For us data geeks, here are some raw numbers to ponder.

Between La Jolla and Carlsbad, there are three prime zip codes – 92009 (SE Carlsbad), 92024 (Encinitas), and 92130 (Carmel Valley) – that are the dominant target zones for buyers of the mid-range home (which today is $1.2M to $2.0M).

According to the Census, there are a total of 35,146 one-unit single-family residences in these three zips, so let’s use this mid-range group to consider the trends:

Number of Listings & Sales, May 1 to Apr 30

Year
# Listings
# Sales
L/S
Median SP
2009-10
710
366
1.9
$770,000
2010-11
748
448
1.7
$739,500
2011-12
771
427
1.7
$775,000
2012-13
1,272
769
1.7
$820,000
2013-14
2,216
1,488
1.5
$895,250
2014-15
2,157
1,467
1.5
$949,000
2015-16
2,366
1,506
1.6
$989,550
2016-17
2,252
1,564
1.4
$1,072,500
2017-18
1,833
1,400
1.3
$1,160,000
2018-19
2,092
1,340
1.6
$1,241,250
2019-20
1,835
1,334
1.4
$1,260,000
2020-21
1,906
1,606
1.2
$1,440,000
All
20,163
13,715
1.5
$1,075,000

My thoughts:

The most-recent inventory count is in line with previous years – it is the number of sales that are so astonishing. The big winners are those inferior homes that are getting scooped up in the frenzy, for which buyers are overpaying just to win something.

In an area of 35,146 houses, there are 86 for sale today (0.2%), with a median list price of $2,124,500. No wonder the inferior homes are getting scooped up.

Buyers on the lower-end have to feel like they are getting closer to being priced out every day.

Of the 13,715 recent sales, 10,000 of them were probably forever homes – or forever rentals – and unlikely to come back onto the market for 10-20 years (at best). The lean inventory will continue just because we won’t have the turnover we’ve had in past decades when it was easier to move around.

2 Comments

  1. The Old Man
    The Old Man on May 22, 2021 at 9:01 am

    Interesting thing Ive noticed around me. Half the homes turn over every 2 to 5 years while others never do. To my right Im on neighbor #4. All 3 left the state to go back where they came from. To my left my neighbor has been here from day one like us. I see this all over my neighborhood.

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