Inventory Watch

Bidding Wars | Inventory | Jim's Take on the Market

October 26, 2020



We only had 65 new SFR listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad over the last seven days, which is an 18% drop from the previous week and the lowest count since the beginning of the pandemic. The demand is still hot – there were 85 new pendings – but if the inventory count does what it’s done in previous years, it will really fall off the next couple of months (see top graph).

But who knows – this is 2020!

We have three offers on our $1,195,000 listing in Vista, and should determine a winner today. The Big Question – do you take a full price cash offer that is contingent upon selling another home? Given how hot the market is, it’s worth considering!

NSDCC Under $1,000,000 Market

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 7	72	$469/sf	55	49
Jan 14	78	$487/sf	49	48
Jan 21	82	$488/sf	49	49
Jan 28	68	$480/sf	53	64
Feb 4	72	$483/sf	53	69
Feb 11	75	$481/sf	45	74
Feb 18	67	$482/sf	46	76
Feb 25	67	$494/sf	47	67
Mar 4	82	$478/sf	38	64
Mar 11	90	$471/sf	36	65
Mar 18	95	$475/sf	37	69
Mar 25	98	$463/sf	36	72
Apr 1	94	$462/sf	38	71
Apr 8	91	$455/sf	42	75
Apr 15	93	$463/sf	42	75
Apr 22	94	$481/sf	44	78
Apr 29	99	$469/sf	43	84
May 6	106	$466/sf	38	81
May 13	102	$470/sf	38	78
May 20	112	$453/sf	31	79
May 27	110	$464/sf	34	80
Jun 3	113	$469/sf	33	84
Jun 10	109	$463/sf	36	88
Jun 17	109	$465/sf	35	89
Jun 24	105	$474/sf	37	84
Jul 1	96	$474/sf	38	79
Jul 8	89	$472/sf	46	85
Jul 15	100	$490/sf	43	82
Jul 22	94	$494/sf	44	84
Jul 29	97	$493/sf	44	78
Aug 5	99	$490/sf	43	69
Aug 12	101	$482/sf	39	65
Aug 19	103	$487/sf	39	64
Aug 26	106	$476/sf	44	59
Sep 2	96	$471/sf	48	59
Sep 9	88	$477/sf	48	59
Sep 16	94	$474/sf	41	56
Sep 23	86	$467/sf	46	56
Sep 30	84	$467/sf	50	58
Oct 7	80	$487/sf	44	56
Oct 14	82	$478/sf	44	54
Oct 21	70	$470/sf	47	57
Oct 28	66	$458/sf	44	52
Nov 4	60	$460/sf	40	50
Nov 11	71	$462/sf	44	56
Nov 18	72	$472/sf	36	59
Nov 25	66	$473/sf	39	61
Dec 2	57	$481/sf	43	58
Dec 9	58	$458/sf	38	48
Dec 16	51	$458/sf	43	51
Dec 23	46	$463/sf	46	49
Dec 30	45	$460/sf	48	43
Jan 6	40	$453/sf	51	40
Jan 13	41	$483/sf	48	42
Jan 20	37	$467/sf	51	51
Jan 27	36	$462/sf	46	51
Feb 3	30	$464/sf	51	52
Feb 10	29	$459/sf	39	59
Feb 17	31	$451/sf	37	60
Feb 24	35	$470/sf	32	57
Mar 2	23	$454/sf	42	54
Mar 9	23	$473/sf	32	62
Mar 16	30	$476/sf	31	59
Mar 23	32	$486/sf	33	55
Mar 30	40	$475/sf	32	44
Apr 6	40	$476/sf	32	34
Apr 13	45	$486/sf	31	32
Apr 20	51	$500/sf	30	34
Apr 27	49	$485/sf	31	43
May 4	59	$477/sf	33	38
May 11	64	$485/sf	34	43
May 18	58	$491/sf	37	46
May 25	56	$480/sf	35	58
Jun 1	45	$503/sf	36	72
Jun 8	44	$478/sf	37	75
Jun 15	43	$485/sf	37	74
Jun 22	42	$474/sf	31	79
Jun 29	48	$476/sf	32	71
Jul 6	38	$459/sf	38	69
Jul 13	40	$476/sf	31	74
Jul 20	34	$475/sf	33	73
Jul 27	40	$547/sf	31	68
Aug 3	39	$531/sf	30	69
Aug 10	33	$546/sf	25	75
Aug 17	28	$533/sf	22	67
Aug 24	33	$535/sf	22	64
Aug 31	30	$552/sf	27	62
Sep 7	33	$531/sf	22	66
Sep 14	30	$529/sf	26	60
Sep 28	25	$545/sf	39
Oct 5	25	$538/sf	23
Oct 12	23	$566/sf	28
Oct 19	20	$461/sf	20
Oct 26	21	$450/sf	20

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 7	154	$497/sf	58	69
Jan 14	158	$489/sf	54	65
Jan 21	161	$503/sf	55	56
Jan 28	169	$489/sf	52	60
Feb 4	167	$502/sf	50	69
Feb 11	157	$504/sf	51	84
Feb 18	168	$494/sf	47	83
Feb 25	175	$494/sf	49	84
Mar 4	174	$507/sf	44	86
Mar 11	175	$501/sf	44	91
Mar 18	194	$526/sf	43	99
Mar 25	189	$510/sf	44	104
Apr 1	188	$513/sf	45	107
Apr 8	215	$512/sf	45	104
Apr 15	211	$515/sf	46	108
Apr 22	201	$513/sf	49	117
Apr 29	193	$507/sf	49	128
May 6	211	$506/sf	49	121
May 13	201	$497/sf	52	131
May 20	207	$507/sf	48	129
May 27	198	$513/sf	49	133
Jun 3	197	$510/sf	51	129
Jun 10	204	$511/sf	50	129
Jun 17	198	$506/sf	55	117
Jun 24	192	$510/sf	55	120
Jul 1	198	$503/sf	56	119
Jul 8	186	$512/sf	58	123
Jul 15	191	$504/sf	57	126
Jul 22	189	$498/sf	57	125
Jul 29	192	$494/sf	56	120
Aug 5	186	$498/sf	52	119
Aug 12	180	$486/sf	52	114
Aug 19	179	$493/sf	50	127
Aug 26	183	$518/sf	45	120
Sep 2	184	$517/sf	46	105
Sep 9	182	$508/sf	48	105
Sep 16	188	$515/sf	47	100
Sep 23	185	$530/sf	46	93
Sep 30	179	$532/sf	49	95
Oct 7	179	$533/sf	50	97
Oct 14	171	$546/sf	55	94
Oct 21	165	$551/sf	55	99
Oct 28	160	$545/sf	54	103
Nov 4	151	$541/sf	53	103
Nov 11	147	$545/sf	57	104
Nov 18	142	$563/sf	58	103
Nov 25	133	$583/sf	60	109
Dec 2	125	$559/sf	64	108
Dec 9	122	$567/sf	63	95
Dec 16	111	$566/sf	62	90
Dec 23	98	$594/sf	66	81
Dec 30	94	$597/sf	70	70
Jan 6	89	$615/sf	67	72
Jan 13	93	$598/sf	65	71
Jan 20	87	$612/sf	66	73
Jan 27	93	$589/sf	59	65
Feb 3	96	$576/sf	54	65
Feb 10	94	$559/sf	62	84
Feb 17	80	$542/sf	64	100
Feb 24	90	$530/sf	61	97
Mar 2	93	$529/sf	56	91
Mar 9	100	$537/sf	46	98
Mar 16	101	$521/sf	44	105
Mar 23	111	$522/sf	44	90
Mar 30	114	$528/sf	43	75
Apr 6	115	$528/sf	50	69
Apr 13	116	$525/sf	48	58
Apr 20	118	$539/sf	52	57
Apr 27	121	$538/sf	48	64
May 4	122	$524/sf	50	72
May 11	128	$519/sf	46	77
May 18	151	$520/sf	40	69
May 25	152	$535/sf	43	87
Jun 1	147	$540/sf	42	109
Jun 8	149	$530/sf	44	115
Jun 15	146	$518/sf	42	125
Jun 22	160	$522/sf	36	133
Jun 29	153	$524/sf	35	137
Jul 6	133	$525/sf	38	150
Jul 13	127	$526/sf	36	152
Jul 20	122	$542/sf	34	158
Jul 27	122	$544/sf	37	169
Aug 3	112	$559/sf	37	154
Aug 10	120	$551/sf	33	151
Aug 17	113	$608/sf	33	158
Aug 24	99	$603/sf	34	158
Aug 31	94	$600/sf	35	146
Sep 7	87	$567/sf	28	157
Sep 14	79	$559/sf	31	156
Sep 28	91	$576/sf	33
Oct 5	81	$565/sf	31
Oct 12	78	$550/sf	32
Oct 19	74	$541/sf	25
Oct 26	68	$539/sf	25

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 7	108	$628/sf	86	33
Jan 14	107	$647/sf	83	37
Jan 21	113	$665/sf	77	39
Jan 28	116	$676/sf	76	42
Feb 4	125	$665/sf	73	41
Feb 11	131	$670/sf	72	43
Feb 18	132	$674/sf	71	49
Feb 25	130	$670/sf	66	53
Mar 4	134	$677/sf	59	59
Mar 11	143	$674/sf	57	53
Mar 18	143	$649/sf	56	67
Mar 25	133	$642/sf	56	66
Apr 1	131	$621/sf	53	69
Apr 8	139	$618/sf	49	77
Apr 15	149	$630/sf	50	75
Apr 22	145	$616/sf	50	72
Apr 29	148	$605/sf	49	77
May 6	157	$606/sf	48	74
May 13	159	$599/sf	47	72
May 20	170	$612/sf	48	73
May 27	165	$595/sf	50	79
Jun 3	172	$607/sf	52	70
Jun 10	181	$604/sf	52	70
Jun 17	186	$610/sf	56	69
Jun 24	197	$616/sf	56	59
Jul 1	195	$600/sf	58	65
Jul 8	191	$610/sf	58	71
Jul 15	194	$601/sf	58	69
Jul 22	189	$608/sf	58	74
Jul 29	194	$606/sf	60	73
Aug 5	203	$614/sf	61	67
Aug 12	207	$612/sf	64	65
Aug 19	199	$596/sf	64	79
Aug 26	200	$598/sf	64	79
Sep 2	203	$614/sf	62	69
Sep 9	195	$600/sf	66	73
Sep 16	198	$596/sf	66	65
Sep 23	197	$590/sf	68	75
Sep 30	191	$596/sf	68	74
Oct 7	184	$608/sf	70	77
Oct 14	177	$608/sf	61	79
Oct 21	177	$600/sf	62	71
Oct 28	177	$580/sf	61	67
Nov 4	170	$595/sf	62	67
Nov 11	162	$590/sf	66	71
Nov 18	150	$602/sf	69	70
Nov 25	141	$605/sf	69	74
Dec 2	130	$600/sf	69	73
Dec 9	134	$618/sf	65	63
Dec 16	126	$620/sf	70	59
Dec 23	125	$612/sf	77	53
Dec 30	113	$627/sf	79	62
Jan 6	113	$605/sf	71	57
Jan 13, 2020	113	$664/sf	67	59
Jan 20	113	$658/sf	61	50
Jan 27	103	$654/sf	66	59
Feb 3	104	$664/sf	60	59
Feb 10	110	$667/sf	54	62
Feb 17	111	$650/sf	55	72
Feb 24	110	$634/sf	60	76
Mar 2	115	$644/sf	51	77
Mar 9	121	$665/sf	50	80
Mar 16	125	$665/sf	49	79
Mar 23	119	$665/sf	52	70
Mar 30	126	$660/sf	51	59
Apr 6	130	$650/sf	51	56
Apr 13	132	$646/sf	56	49
Apr 20	138	$658/sf	53	47
Apr 27	157	$668/sf	53	47
May 4	151	$665/sf	59	53
May 11	150	$650/sf	63	60
May 18	156	$650/sf	64	58
May 25	169	$643/sf	61	61
Jun 1	162	$655/sf	62	76
Jun 8	168	$655/sf	64	70
Jun 15	161	$668/sf	61	84
Jun 22	170	$678/sf	56	96
Jun 29	170	$686/sf	59	94
Jul 6	160	$700/sf	60	92
Jul 13	155	$683/sf	56	106
Jul 20	156	$692/sf	56	109
Jul 27	146	$705/sf	55	108
Aug 3	129	$719/sf	47	119
Aug 10	128	$698/sf	52	120
Aug 17	123	$714/sf	51	126
Aug 24	118	$683/sf	55	131
Aug 31	115	$701/sf	48	122
Sep 7	107	$648/sf	46	122
Sep 14	116	$670/sf	45	115
Sep 28	109	$647/sf	39
Oct 5	105	$683/sf	39
Oct 12	100	$673/sf	41
Oct 19	104	$633/sf	39
Oct 26	98	$681/sf	44

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	161	$744/sf	106	33
Jan 6, 2020	147	$756/sf	97	31
Jan 13, 2020	149	$755/sf	94	27
Jan 20, 2020	150	$749/sf	89	27
Jan 27, 2020	154	$738/sf	91	29
Feb 3, 2020	162	$745/sf	86	33
Feb 10, 2020	169	$753/sf	83	33
Feb 17, 2020	166	$735/sf	81	43
Feb 24, 2020	155	$737/sf	86	58
Mar 2, 2020	156	$731/sf	78	55
Mar 9, 2020	157	$726/sf	78	61
Mar 16, 2020	166	$736/sf	75	57
Mar 23, 2020	167	$730/sf	79	45
Mar 30, 2020	163	$734/sf	80	44
Apr 6, 2020	153	$771/sf	81	37
Apr 13, 2020	159	$765/sf	78	33
Apr 20, 2020	153	$773/sf	80	37
Apr 27, 2020	156	$761/sf	82	29
May 4, 2020	165	$756/sf	77	24
May 11, 2020	162	$772/sf	77	27
May 18, 2020	163	$784/sf	79	31
May 25, 2020	157	$779/sf	79	39
June 1, 2020	141	$787/sf	79	49
June 8, 2020	141	$785/sf	82	49
June 15, 2020	148	$798/sf	73	60
June 22, 2020	144	$810/sf	78	63
June 29, 2020	146	$795/sf	80	61
July 6, 2020	136	$799/sf	80	59
July 13, 2020	137	$824/sf	77	62
July 20, 2020	142	$851/sf	67	72
July 27, 2020	144	$845/sf	69	84
Aug 3, 2020	143	$856/sf	69	87
Aug 10, 2020	135	$831/sf	69	87
Aug 17, 2020	137	$823/sf	72	87
Aug 24, 2020	140	$829/sf	74	81
Aug 31, 2020	142	$842/sf	71	86
Sep 7, 2020	133	$802/sf	71	94
Sep 14, 2020	125	$840/sf	70	96
Sep 28, 2020	115	$823/sf	78
Oct 5, 2020	117	$821/sf	75
Oct 12, 2020	113	$824/sf	71
Oct 19, 2020	116	$808/sf	65/center>
Oct 26, 2020	123	$822/sf	64/center>

The $3,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	267	$1,226/sf	144	28
Jan 6, 2020	246	$1,218/sf	138	29
Jan 13, 2020	256	$1,173/sf	133	28
Jan 20, 2020	261	$1,158/sf	128	27
Jan 27, 2020	258	$1,163/sf	128	27
Feb 3, 2020	258	$1,162/sf	127	32
Feb 10, 2020	259	$1,172/sf	124	37
Feb 17, 2020	265	$1,140/sf	118	36
Feb 24, 2020	268	$1,150/sf	120	39
Mar 2, 2020	267	$1,119/sf	121	37
Mar 9, 2020	276	$1,118/sf	119	38
Mar 16, 2020	276	$1,116/sf	118	40
Mar 23, 2020	256	$1,142/sf	128	40
Mar 30, 2020	244	$1,150/sf	131	40
Apr 6, 2020	231	$1,168/sf	129	28
Apr 13, 2020	230	$1,183/sf	132	25
Apr 20, 2020	224	$1,165/sf	138	26
Apr 27, 2020	221	$1,197/sf	137	22
May 4, 2020	235	$1,194/sf	131	25
May 11, 2020	252	$1,173/sf	129	23
May 18, 2020	261	$1,160/sf	127	23
May 25, 2020	271	$1,156/sf	125	26
June 1, 2020	270	$1,164/sf	124	34
June 8, 2020	264	$1,173/sf	125	39
June 15, 2020	270	$1,158/sf	121	41
June 22, 2020	282	$1,162/sf	117	49
June 29, 2020	287	$1,152/sf	118	47
July 6, 2020	288	$1,145/sf	115	57
July 13, 2020	276	$1,163/sf	116	62
July 20, 2020	280	$1,153/sf	115	62
July 27, 2020	286	$1,183/sf	116	54
Aug 3, 2020	288	$1,186/sf	112	54
Aug 10, 2020	285	$1,177/sf	113	59
Aug 17, 2020	294	$1,178/sf	107	62
Aug 24, 2020	290	$1,181/sf	107	61
Aug 31, 2020	296	$1,185/sf	106	69
Sep 7, 2020	297	$1,180/sf	117	69
Sep 14, 2020	304	$1,215/sf	116	73
Sep 28, 2020	288	$1,238/sf	112
Oct 5, 2020	291	$1,245/sf	122
Oct 12, 2020	291	$1,251/sf	121
Oct 19, 2020	284	$1,273/sf	123
Oct 26, 2020	280	$1,359/sf	127

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Pendings
Jan 7	92	24	203
Jan 14	81	35	205
Jan 21	77	33	196
Jan 28	87	47	217
Feb 4	92	45	233
Feb 11	83	48	255
Feb 18	84	52	263
Feb 25	72	39	261
Mar 4	113	52	267
Mar 11	122	63	284
Mar 18	100	64	302
Mar 25	95	70	324
Apr 1	87	53	331
Apr 8	113	58	342
Apr 15	104	59	341
Apr 22	94	67	353
Apr 29	117	74	367
May 6	113	67	364
May 13	86	48	362
May 20	132	55	357
May 27	100	78	375
Jun 3	109	55	365
Jun 10	106	54	366
Jun 17	94	59	363
Jun 24	97	63	344
Jul 1	89	53	343
Jul 8	81	66	363
Jul 15	115	59	364
Jul 22	89	72	367
Jul 29	102	47	354
Aug 5	102	47	336
Aug 12	96	51	328
Aug 19	89	61	350
Aug 26	86	40	326
Sep 2	67	44	300
Sep 9	75	52	305
Sep 16	102	46	296
Sep 23	67	59	301
Sep 30	68	56	306
Oct 7	76	44	305
Oct 14	78	51	302
Oct 21	71	49	296
Oct 28	76	55	291
Nov 4	87	54	283
Nov 11	61	52	291
Nov 18	69	50	288
Nov 25	60	57	303
Dec 2	19	34	297
Dec 9	58	29	261
Dec 16	45	40	251
Dec 23	32	37	232
Dec 30	16	26	226
Jan 6	56	21	218
Jan 13	76	33	214
Jan 20	71	53	217
Jan 27	62	38	220
Feb 3	75	46	232
Feb 10	97	72	265
Feb 17	82	58	300
Feb 24	70	53	316
Mar 2	79	55	301
Mar 9	106	66	328
Mar 16	83	55	329
Mar 23	59	31	289
Mar 30	63	31	251
Apr 6	57	21	219
Apr 13	48	17	194
Apr 20	63	29	192
Apr 27	79	40	205
May 4	86	40	208
May 11	91	48	226
May 18	95	44	224
May 25	121	69	266
Jun 1	81	92	332
Jun 8	88	67	338
Jun 15	104	82	374
Jun 22	112	78	409
Jun 29	85	69	402
Jul 6	83	88	418
Jul 13	105	93	447
Jul 20	106	98	466
Jul 27	92	80	475
Aug 3	104	101	477
Aug 10	94	91	483
Aug 17	96	87	490
Aug 24	71	87	482
Aug 31	100	86	476
Sep 7	110	93	491
Sep 14	75	70	481
Sep 28	86	67	486
Oct 5	74	91	462
Oct 12	75	92	470
Oct 19	79	77	487
Oct 26	65	85	476

The MLS ‘upgrade’ of September, 2020 added an extra status type called ‘Active Under Contract’. I’m including those under the pendings, and ‘Actives’ are those marked as active listings for sale. The pendings count by price have been suspended on Sept 28 & Oct 5 and will be in the future until they stop omitting the price.

2 Comments

The Old Man on October 26, 2020 at 10:07 am

Isn’t everyone cash at closing?
Jim the Realtor on October 26, 2020 at 10:30 am

Yes but skipping the financing and appraisal processes is a plus.

Inventory Watch

Written by Jim the Realtor

October 26, 2020

2 Comments

2 Comments

Jim Klinge

Klinge Realty Group

Broker-Associate, Compass

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