An interesting conversation yesterday with the guy who made one of the biggest deals in the history of residential brokerages when he sold his company with 1,700+ agents to Compass in 2018. His team developed the graph above on March 31st, and it looks like they are guessing that the selling season will just be delayed a couple of months. He will update it next week with more-current projections.
In this discussion, he talks about how today compares with 2009 when he purchased PUI from GMAC when it had 400 agents, and a $900,000 per month overhead. He thinks the market will bounce back quickly, and that it’s time to go on the offensive (IOW: many brokerages aren’t going to make it through this):
https://1000watt.net/blog/1000watt-forum-leading-through-crisis/
He has also been blogging:
So a V shaped recovery that overshoots to the up side. Not saying it won’t happen because it’s not possible to know. Fortune telling with a graph is still fortune telling.
Agree – I’m hoping the next update has some evidence with it.
He has the company’s daily stats on the blog, which would be the best proof available because he has about 1,000 agents each in Bay Area and high-end L.A. – I’ll find it.