It’s one thing to talk about whether Prop 5 will make a difference, because it’s very speculative – we won’t really know unless it passes.
Will it pass?
The powers that be are pushing their agenda on either side, but I doubt there are voters sitting on the edge of their chair awaiting the outcome.
If voters just go off the voter guide for direction, this is what they will see:
The ‘con’ argument starts with two zingers and then fingers the ‘corporate real estate interests’ as the culprit. If voters go to their website, this is the first image they see, which will make an impression:
Because the C.A.R. is already gearing up for a revised initiative in 2020, this may just be a test run. But it would be helpful to have it pass, and see if there is any positive impact on the statewide market that could provide additional data for the 2020 initiative.
If it does pass, but the market doesn’t change much, then the C.A.R. will be able to say that we need the next round – which eliminates the inheritance tax break for vacation and rental properties, and clamp down on businesses that avoid higher property taxes when they buy commercial real estate.