Yesterday we saw that the number of new NSDCC listings this month was well under previous Januarys, which could impact sales.  When sales go down, we usually think it’s a precursor to prices falling, but sales could decline just because there aren’t enough houses to sell.

Can we make assumptions about who is selling, and who isn’t?

It is easy to not sell, and stay on the sidelines. You can avoid spending big money on home improvements, closing costs, and new furniture, and you don’t have to sort through your junk, which is a big plus.

It has to mean that the lower-motivated, casual sellers are the ones who aren’t listing their houses for sale, which is great.  It is better for everyone in the market to only have to deal with those who really want and need to sell.

What it should mean is that sales will keep up.

NSDCC January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,045,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
168
$557/sf
$1,093,500
53
2017
140 (so far)
$537/sf
$1,197,500
53

Last year we had 14 sales on the last business day of the month, and if we add another 10% for late-reporters, we are going to surpass the 168 sales we had last January. This is the first group of buyers to be hit by the abrupt rate increase, and yet they kept buying.

There is one more business day this year, compared to 2016.  But just to be in the same ballpark as last year is fantastic, given rates are about 3/8% higher than last January, and the Trumpinator is providing major distractions.

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