We hear murmurs of higher or rising inventory, but rarely do you hear any rational explanations, let alone solutions. There have been 3% fewer NSDCC houses listed in the first half of this year, than in 2013 (2,697 vs. 2,790).
But the inventory of active listings is rising, which means one thing. In spite of the avg. LP/sf being steady, more houses are not selling, than selling.
Sellers should sharpen their pencil if they want to sell in 2014.
North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
95 |
$376/sf |
47 |
1,988sf |
December 2 |
79 |
$371/sf |
50 |
2,047sf |
December 9 |
72 |
$383/sf |
43 |
1,954sf |
December 16 |
81 |
$378/sf |
42 |
1,948sf |
December 23 |
77 |
$374/sf |
49 |
1,937sf |
December 30 |
76 |
$373/sf |
51 |
1,950sf |
January 6 |
74 |
$370/sf |
49 |
1,995sf |
January 13 |
71 |
$381/sf |
44 |
1,921sf |
January 20 |
72 |
$384/sf |
41 |
1,877sf |
January 27 |
75 |
$399/sf |
40 |
1,891sf |
February 3 |
78 |
$409/sf |
41 |
1,876sf |
February 10 |
82 |
$395/sf |
38 |
1,927sf |
February 17 |
85 |
$387/sf |
35 |
1,929sf |
February 24 |
90 |
$383/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 3 |
82 |
$397/sf |
39 |
1,942sf |
March 10 |
88 |
$377/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 17 |
89 |
$366/sf |
34 |
2,038sf |
March 24 |
79 |
$369/sf |
34 |
2,031sf |
March 31 |
78 |
$367/sf |
39 |
2,069sf |
April 7 |
87 |
$373/sf |
32 |
2,054sf |
April 14 |
97 |
$380/sf |
31 |
2,000sf |
April 21 |
87 |
$377/sf |
32 |
2,062sf |
April 28 |
107 |
$379/sf |
29 |
2,044sf |
May 5 |
114 |
$376/sf |
27 |
2,046sf |
May 12 |
108 |
$385/sf |
31 |
2,012sf |
May 19 |
107 |
$385/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
105 |
$375/sf |
34 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
102 |
$376/sf |
36 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
102 |
$377/sf |
37 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
104 |
$369/sf |
35 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
111 |
$380/sf |
34 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
119 |
$376/sf |
36 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
122 |
$387/sf |
36 |
0sf |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
245 |
$448/sf |
61 |
2,856sf |
December 2 |
239 |
$448/sf |
64 |
2,851sf |
December 9 |
226 |
$461/sf |
65 |
2,812sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$464/sf |
66 |
2,794sf |
December 23 |
197 |
$453/sf |
73 |
2,813sf |
December 30 |
173 |
$450/sf |
78 |
2,821sf |
January 6 |
170 |
$470/sf |
65 |
2,757sf |
January 13 |
168 |
$463/sf |
59 |
2,764sf |
January 20 |
174 |
$444/sf |
51 |
2,882sf |
January 27 |
166 |
$435/sf |
52 |
2,902sf |
February 3 |
165 |
$441/sf |
53 |
2,857sf |
February 10 |
175 |
$443/sf |
51 |
2,852sf |
February 17 |
180 |
$447/sf |
50 |
2,803sf |
February 24 |
188 |
$438/sf |
44 |
2,846sf |
March 3 |
202 |
$421/sf |
44 |
2,936sf |
March 10 |
215 |
$431/sf |
41 |
2,854sf |
March 17 |
223 |
$421/sf |
42 |
2,918sf |
March 24 |
217 |
$419/sf |
42 |
2,941sf |
March 31 |
223 |
$425/sf |
44 |
2,887sf |
April 7 |
224 |
$428/sf |
44 |
2,881sf |
April 14 |
233 |
$429/sf |
44 |
2,892sf |
April 21 |
237 |
$432/sf |
44 |
2,894sf |
April 28 |
240 |
$430/sf |
45 |
2,848sf |
May 5 |
272 |
$434/sf |
42 |
2,838sf |
May 12 |
269 |
$438/sf |
42 |
2,831sf |
May 19 |
275 |
$436/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
276 |
$429/sf |
49 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
270 |
$431/sf |
50 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
292 |
$454/sf |
52 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
299 |
$443/sf |
52 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
304 |
$437/sf |
51 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
304 |
$431/sf |
53 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
307 |
$423/sf |
55 |
0sf |
The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
227 |
$580/sf |
81 |
3,692sf |
December 2 |
222 |
$588/sf |
85 |
3,653sf |
December 9 |
219 |
$586/sf |
87 |
3,636sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$593/sf |
88 |
3,627sf |
December 23 |
196 |
$601/sf |
94 |
3,581sf |
December 30 |
190 |
$597/sf |
100 |
3,591sf |
January 6 |
175 |
$595/sf |
97 |
3,594sf |
January 13 |
184 |
$600/sf |
92 |
3,590sf |
January 20 |
187 |
$589/sf |
83 |
3,663sf |
January 27 |
195 |
$589/sf |
80 |
3,649sf |
February 3 |
196 |
$573/sf |
78 |
3,730sf |
February 10 |
205 |
$583/sf |
76 |
3,687sf |
February 17 |
216 |
$582/sf |
72 |
3,729sf |
February 24 |
211 |
$584/sf |
77 |
3,744sf |
March 3 |
221 |
$585/sf |
78 |
3,761sf |
March 10 |
228 |
$585/sf |
77 |
3,740sf |
March 17 |
217 |
$584/sf |
75 |
3,744sf |
March 24 |
231 |
$584/sf |
73 |
3,742sf |
March 31 |
232 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,750sf |
April 7 |
230 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,753sf |
April 14 |
233 |
$564/sf |
69 |
3,748sf |
April 21 |
244 |
$563/sf |
67 |
3,780sf |
April 28 |
238 |
$566/sf |
66 |
3,757sf |
May 5 |
247 |
$571/sf |
61 |
3,746sf |
May 12 |
251 |
$559/sf |
64 |
3,782sf |
May 19 |
256 |
$562/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
263 |
$552/sf |
69 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
261 |
$561/sf |
69 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
273 |
$566/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
276 |
$571/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
289 |
$581/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
292 |
$594/sf |
72 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
288 |
$588/sf |
74 |
0sf |
The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
340 |
$1,040/sf |
159 |
6,347sf |
December 2 |
330 |
$1,049/sf |
160 |
6,342sf |
December 9 |
318 |
$1,057/sf |
163 |
6,392sf |
December 16 |
317 |
$1,049/sf |
163 |
6,420sf |
December 23 |
302 |
$1,063/sf |
169 |
6,405sf |
December 30 |
285 |
$1,074/sf |
174 |
6,460sf |
January 6 |
285 |
$1,073/sf |
171 |
6,477sf |
January 13 |
295 |
$1,057/sf |
168 |
6,480sf |
January 20 |
297 |
$1,050/sf |
157 |
6,537sf |
January 27 |
307 |
$1,041/sf |
152 |
6,513sf |
February 3 |
297 |
$1,048/sf |
152 |
6,545sf |
February 10 |
315 |
$1,024/sf |
146 |
6,519sf |
February 17 |
315 |
$1,030/sf |
148 |
6,572sf |
February 24 |
314 |
$1,028/sf |
148 |
6,611sf |
March 3 |
309 |
$1,004/sf |
145 |
6,628sf |
March 10 |
316 |
$1,011/sf |
141 |
6,576sf |
March 17 |
329 |
$999/sf |
136 |
6,557sf |
March 24 |
331 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,563sf |
March 31 |
336 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,574sf |
April 7 |
345 |
$988/sf |
128 |
6,477sf |
April 14 |
349 |
$996/sf |
126 |
6,534sf |
April 21 |
353 |
$995/sf |
124 |
6,523sf |
April 28 |
366 |
$980/sf |
120 |
6,543sf |
May 5 |
379 |
$974/sf |
119 |
6,539sf |
May 12 |
388 |
$967/sf |
118 |
6,509sf |
May 19 |
390 |
$1,000/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
393 |
$1,015/sf |
122 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
395 |
$1,007/sf |
124 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
398 |
$1,010/sf |
125 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
397 |
$1,016/sf |
130 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
417 |
$911/sf |
116 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
416 |
$904/sf |
120 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
411 |
$912/sf |
120 |
0sf |
Thankfully there hasn’t been a big flood of sellers rushing the exits as the summer opportunity winds down – and those overpriced will likely cancel, rather than lower during the off-season. It should be a fairly quiet rest-of-the-year at this rate:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
May 30 |
70 |
84 |
June 5 |
87 |
64 |
June 11 |
77 |
69 |
June 17 |
73 |
66 |
June 24 |
100 |
69 |
July 1 |
86 |
64 |
July 8 |
81 |
53 |
July 15 |
106 |
54 |
July 22 |
105 |
89 |
July 29 |
71 |
74 |
Aug 5 |
105 |
64 |
Aug 12 |
77 |
61 |
Aug 19 |
88 |
73 |
Aug 26 |
87 |
77 |
Sep 2 |
76 |
55 |
Sep 9 |
85 |
58 |
Sep 16 |
102 |
61 |
Sep 23 |
84 |
54 |
Sep 30 |
73 |
80 |
Oct 7 |
80 |
61 |
Oct 14 |
78 |
53 |
Oct 21 |
70 |
63 |
Oct 28 |
54 |
40 |
Nov 4 |
63 |
53 |
Nov 11 |
49 |
64 |
Nov 18 |
52 |
44 |
Nov 25 |
48 |
40 |
Dec 2 |
25 |
34 |
Dec 9 |
45 |
47 |
Dec 16 |
56 |
46 |
Dec 23 |
21 |
39 |
Dec 30 |
14 |
23 |
Jan 6 |
63 |
25 |
Jan 13 |
75 |
44 |
Jan 20 |
98 |
51 |
Jan 27 |
71 |
56 |
Feb 3 |
74 |
63 |
Feb 10 |
95 |
59 |
Feb 17 |
81 |
76 |
Feb 24 |
80 |
70 |
Mar 3 |
88 |
71 |
Mar 10 |
98 |
54 |
Mar 17 |
87 |
65 |
Mar 24 |
89 |
76 |
Mar 31 |
77 |
57 |
April 7 |
98 |
61 |
April 14 |
108 |
72 |
April 21 |
87 |
62 |
April 28 |
122 |
73 |
May 5 |
144 |
67 |
May 12 |
96 |
85 |
May 19 |
87 |
61 |
May 26 |
97 |
72 |
Jun 2 |
90 |
59 |
Jun 9 |
108 |
52 |
Jun 16 |
103 |
65 |
Jun 23 |
131 |
62 |
Jun 30 |
85 |
70 |
July 7 |
80 |
53 |
If homes were listed appropriately based on sold comps and not a speculative “the markets rising” mindset they would be selling more consistently.
Agents are eating their words after buying listings with promises of high sales prices due to a hot market. It’s back to being realistic and following sold comps like it should be in a normal market.