The NSDCC detached-home sales count for March is currently at 215, which is 28% fewer sales than in March, 2013, and the lowest March count since 2009. The San Diego County count is 20% below last year, and if those stats are similar around the country, look for the media to have a field day speculating about the causes.
There would be more concern if the market was flush with listings that weren’t selling, but that isn’t the case. A few more listings are coming on, but this is the prime selling season and there still is very low selection.
North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
95 |
$376/sf |
47 |
1,988sf |
December 2 |
79 |
$371/sf |
50 |
2,047sf |
December 9 |
72 |
$383/sf |
43 |
1,954sf |
December 16 |
81 |
$378/sf |
42 |
1,948sf |
December 23 |
77 |
$374/sf |
49 |
1,937sf |
December 30 |
76 |
$373/sf |
51 |
1,950sf |
January 6 |
74 |
$370/sf |
49 |
1,995sf |
January 13 |
71 |
$381/sf |
44 |
1,921sf |
January 20 |
72 |
$384/sf |
41 |
1,877sf |
January 27 |
75 |
$399/sf |
40 |
1,891sf |
February 3 |
78 |
$409/sf |
41 |
1,876sf |
February 10 |
82 |
$395/sf |
38 |
1,927sf |
February 17 |
85 |
$387/sf |
35 |
1,929sf |
February 24 |
90 |
$383/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 3 |
82 |
$397/sf |
39 |
1,942sf |
March 10 |
88 |
$377/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 17 |
89 |
$366/sf |
34 |
2,038sf |
March 24 |
79 |
$369/sf |
34 |
2,031sf |
March 31 |
78 |
$367/sf |
39 |
2,069sf |
April 7 |
87 |
$373/sf |
32 |
2,054sf |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
245 |
$448/sf |
61 |
2,856sf |
December 2 |
239 |
$448/sf |
64 |
2,851sf |
December 9 |
226 |
$461/sf |
65 |
2,812sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$464/sf |
66 |
2,794sf |
December 23 |
197 |
$453/sf |
73 |
2,813sf |
December 30 |
173 |
$450/sf |
78 |
2,821sf |
January 6 |
170 |
$470/sf |
65 |
2,757sf |
January 13 |
168 |
$463/sf |
59 |
2,764sf |
January 20 |
174 |
$444/sf |
51 |
2,882sf |
January 27 |
166 |
$435/sf |
52 |
2,902sf |
February 3 |
165 |
$441/sf |
53 |
2,857sf |
February 10 |
175 |
$443/sf |
51 |
2,852sf |
February 17 |
180 |
$447/sf |
50 |
2,803sf |
February 24 |
188 |
$438/sf |
44 |
2,846sf |
March 3 |
202 |
$421/sf |
44 |
2,936sf |
March 10 |
215 |
$431/sf |
41 |
2,854sf |
March 17 |
223 |
$421/sf |
42 |
2,918sf |
March 24 |
217 |
$419/sf |
42 |
2,941sf |
March 31 |
223 |
$425/sf |
44 |
2,887sf |
April 7 |
224 |
$428/sf |
44 |
2,881sf |
The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
227 |
$580/sf |
81 |
3,692sf |
December 2 |
222 |
$588/sf |
85 |
3,653sf |
December 9 |
219 |
$586/sf |
87 |
3,636sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$593/sf |
88 |
3,627sf |
December 23 |
196 |
$601/sf |
94 |
3,581sf |
December 30 |
190 |
$597/sf |
100 |
3,591sf |
January 6 |
175 |
$595/sf |
97 |
3,594sf |
January 13 |
184 |
$600/sf |
92 |
3,590sf |
January 20 |
187 |
$589/sf |
83 |
3,663sf |
January 27 |
195 |
$589/sf |
80 |
3,649sf |
February 3 |
196 |
$573/sf |
78 |
3,730sf |
February 10 |
205 |
$583/sf |
76 |
3,687sf |
February 17 |
216 |
$582/sf |
72 |
3,729sf |
February 24 |
211 |
$584/sf |
77 |
3,744sf |
March 3 |
221 |
$585/sf |
78 |
3,761sf |
March 10 |
228 |
$585/sf |
77 |
3,740sf |
March 17 |
217 |
$584/sf |
75 |
3,744sf |
March 24 |
231 |
$584/sf |
73 |
3,742sf |
March 31 |
232 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,750sf |
April 7 |
230 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,753sf |
The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
340 |
$1,040/sf |
159 |
6,347sf |
December 2 |
330 |
$1,049/sf |
160 |
6,342sf |
December 9 |
318 |
$1,057/sf |
163 |
6,392sf |
December 16 |
317 |
$1,049/sf |
163 |
6,420sf |
December 23 |
302 |
$1,063/sf |
169 |
6,405sf |
December 30 |
285 |
$1,074/sf |
174 |
6,460sf |
January 6 |
285 |
$1,073/sf |
171 |
6,477sf |
January 13 |
295 |
$1,057/sf |
168 |
6,480sf |
January 20 |
297 |
$1,050/sf |
157 |
6,537sf |
January 27 |
307 |
$1,041/sf |
152 |
6,513sf |
February 3 |
297 |
$1,048/sf |
152 |
6,545sf |
February 10 |
315 |
$1,024/sf |
146 |
6,519sf |
February 17 |
315 |
$1,030/sf |
148 |
6,572sf |
February 24 |
314 |
$1,028/sf |
148 |
6,611sf |
March 3 |
309 |
$1,004/sf |
145 |
6,628sf |
March 10 |
316 |
$1,011/sf |
141 |
6,576sf |
March 17 |
329 |
$999/sf |
136 |
6,557sf |
March 24 |
331 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,563sf |
March 31 |
336 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,574sf |
April 7 |
345 |
$988/sf |
128 |
6,477sf |
The pendings have been very steady over the last few weeks:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
May 30 |
70 |
84 |
June 5 |
87 |
64 |
June 11 |
77 |
69 |
June 17 |
73 |
66 |
June 24 |
100 |
69 |
July 1 |
86 |
64 |
July 8 |
81 |
53 |
July 15 |
106 |
54 |
July 22 |
105 |
89 |
July 29 |
71 |
74 |
Aug 5 |
105 |
64 |
Aug 12 |
77 |
61 |
Aug 19 |
88 |
73 |
Aug 26 |
87 |
77 |
Sep 2 |
76 |
55 |
Sep 9 |
85 |
58 |
Sep 16 |
102 |
61 |
Sep 23 |
84 |
54 |
Sep 30 |
73 |
80 |
Oct 7 |
80 |
61 |
Oct 14 |
78 |
53 |
Oct 21 |
70 |
63 |
Oct 28 |
54 |
40 |
Nov 4 |
63 |
53 |
Nov 11 |
49 |
64 |
Nov 18 |
52 |
44 |
Nov 25 |
48 |
40 |
Dec 2 |
25 |
34 |
Dec 9 |
45 |
47 |
Dec 16 |
56 |
46 |
Dec 23 |
21 |
39 |
Dec 30 |
14 |
23 |
Jan 6 |
63 |
25 |
Jan 13 |
75 |
44 |
Jan 20 |
98 |
51 |
Jan 27 |
71 |
56 |
Feb 3 |
74 |
63 |
Feb 10 |
95 |
59 |
Feb 17 |
81 |
76 |
Feb 24 |
80 |
70 |
Mar 3 |
88 |
71 |
Mar 10 |
98 |
54 |
Mar 17 |
87 |
65 |
Mar 24 |
89 |
76 |
Mar 31 |
77 |
57 |
April 7 |
98 |
61 |
As a bystander looking at the housing market, I’d call it ‘constipated’. Very little is happening. I think more disturbing than the drop in overall sales is the drop in mortgage originations —
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-07/mortgage-originations-plunge-lowest-record
The question – always – is where do we go from here?
I think this chart has more to say about housing than everything else.
https://www.housingviews.com/2011/12/31/home-prices-corrected-for-inflation-at-2001-levels/
Thank you Daniel, that is the one we’ve been waiting for!
Where do we go from here?
It is going to be very hard for the statisticians and analytical types to make sense of the data.
Remodeled one-story houses will be in high demand, and see prices continue to escalate.
Ratty two-story houses will be aplenty, and struggle to sustain these pricing levels.
Looking at the tight Credit (it looks even tighter than the inventory), seem only very best candidates can get a mortgage as well.
Seems home owners and builders who can self-finance will have a big advantage.
Looks like the Banks don’t really want to be in the mortgage Biz at this point.
Bill’s been pointing out for a while that we’re still only back to 2001 real prices.