The new listings of detached homes around NSDCC are only 2% behind last year’s count (for the period between January 1st and February 7th), but that hasn’t stopped sellers’ optimism – this year’s average list price is 9% higher than in 2012:

Year # of New Listings List Price Avg $/sf
2011
578
$469/sf
2012
465
$489/sf
2013
454
$531/sf

Sales are healthy, up 9% over last year, but statistically the average pricing hasn’t exploded, though the speed at which homes are selling has increased substantially.  The average days-on-market is 30% lower than last year!

Year # of Solds Avg SP $/sf DOM
2011
161
$387/sf
90
2012
170
$372/sf
96
2013
185
$388/sf
67

Buyers are trying to hold tight, yet the predicted glut of unsold listings is building very slowly:

Date # of NSDCC Active Listings List Price Avg. $/sf
Jan 14
649
$722/sf
Feb 4
667
$716/sf
Feb 10
679
$713/sf

More than half of the 679 active listings have been on the market for more than 60 days, and they are getting ignored unless they drastically reduce their price. Buyers are more focused on the new listings, which are averaging a much more reasonable $531/sf, compared to the stagnant-looking $713/sf.

Precision pricing aimed to create a bidding war is a more-effective strategy for sellers to achieve top dollar, rather than shooting for the moon. I’m sticking with my glut prediction though – we have 3.67 months of inventory today, and by mid-March it should be around 5.0 (using February’s solds).

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