Rich Toscano documented how today’s market conditions are ripe for higher prices.
There is a disconcerting anxiety among buyers today. They see fewer houses coming on the market, and more selling. But on average they aren’t paying more, at least not yet.
Here are detached stats from NSDCC for the March 1st-to-March-15th period. The categories are mostly unrelated, other than happening during the same time frame – but the change in the NL/S ratio demonstrates the frustration. Fewer homes coming on, more selling, and at lower prices:
| Year | New Listings | Avg. LP/sf | Sales | Avg. SP/sf | NL/S |
| 2009 | |||||
| 2010 | |||||
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 |
Even though the average SP/sf is still lower, it only dropped 1.3% Y-O-Y. The smaller gap between average LP/sf and average SP/sf is very encouraging too!
The sales, are they closes or pending’s ?
The pending’s would be more telling, as January/February are slow usually.
I saw something that OC was going through much the same thing.
Anxiety ? No way. But I do see some anxious realtors/flippers in Laguna Niguel are trying to flip some $800K houses.
Piggington is a great blog. Rich always speaks the truth, whether things are going up or going down.
That’s more than I can say for this blog. Bubbleinfo is more like a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Not to mention that most of the content is copied from other sites lately. All I see on the top page are space photos and second hand news. Where are the videos with Jim mumbling semi-humorous snarky comments to himself?
Bubbleinfo is more like a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Can you expand on that?
You think I’m lying? Or reporting a skewed version of the truth?
Or that I get ticked off pretty easy?
The video production has been down because I had trouble talking while sick for the last 2-3 weeks. If the only reason bubbleinfo exists is to entertain you, let me know.
I am truly curious.
You are are salesman. You make money by selling houses. The people who read your blogs are potential clients to you.
The purpose of this site is to put cash in your wallet by driving up sales. It is in your best interest to nudge your readers towards buying a house from you. I believe you try to build up trust by calling out obvious liar such as NAR, and that you hope to cash in on that trust by selling people houses. That is why you have “Contact Jim,” “About Jim,” and “Jim’s Club” links on this website. Or do you just do this out of the goodness of your heart?
Personally, I’m not interested in getting (second hand) news from a salesman.
Now hurry up and get well, so you can make some more entertaining videos for us. 🙂
Jim – People on the front lines know what is going on. Correctly priced properties unless they are true dogs have multiple offers. This is the bounce of all spring bounces. Rich’s data shows the reality of what us going on within the front lines. If his data was APPLE stock (AAPL) it would be gapping up to 650 and holding. Will this bounce hold? Well, prices have been declining for 6-7 years and last fall saw a capitulation of sorts. Keep up the good, ethical and honest blogging Jim. I won’t balme you if you go fully subscribed.
Screw idiots like Joseph Arlington who pretty much are smoke blowing uninformed idiots.
If the guy had something worthwhile to say backed up by facts that would be a different story. he does not. Ban him like an offer sent without proof of funds!
Correctly price properties that aren’t sinkers. Just canceled on a short sale when after the inspection the actual costs to fix the place were 5x what we expected. Ever try negotiating with a bank down after they accepted? Yeah good luck with that, thus the cancel.
I think many buyers will wait till after the summer and get closer to the end of the year when I’m anticipating people to be more eager to sell before the end of the year.
Guys like Joe will be the death of bubbleinfo.
His insecurities in life cause him to attack others, people like me who have done him no harm. He thinks he is funny, but he is not.
Unfortunately, our society is full of Joes. They visit here daily, just to bust my chops out of spite. They don’t have the guts or ambition to work like I do, so they’d rather just tear me down instead.
It’s OK, if and when bubbleinfo dies a slow and agonizing death, we will have all learned a lesson about America. It ain’t what it used to be.
Jim, I read your blog everyday, you Rock! I’m in the business and I find your observations to be right on.
I have never sold someone a house that they couldn’t afford. I doubt you can claim the same.
At first I thought you were a reformed realtor giving us all an insider’s view. Now I see that you are just a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Jim –
I have been reading your blog for years. I think its quite obvious to anyone that you are running a business and sharing your observations related to the market. Commentary that the info is self-serving, outdated or recycled is simply silly and a sign of someone who is uninformed. I must say that Joe seems like someone who is getting his hat handed to him on a daily basis and he needs to lash out at someone. Sounds like the typically internet tough guy that can’t bench the bar.
Keep up the good work Jim!
Basically there is one major force at hand- the inventory is artificially low.
California is about to enact their own version of Nevada infamous AB-284 which came out in October and surprised everyone.
what AB 284 did was stop basically all foreclosures in NV. It gave the Nev govt a “backdoor” way of halting the foreclosure process without “officially” stopping it. Inventory has fallen 75% in NV . There will be no or limited REO’s for the foreseeable future and our only sales are short sales or traditional sales -which are actually auction flips.
Get ready for this scenario which is already unfolding in California.
However what is happeninng in NV is that people are getting wise to this -and since most homes are at least 150% LTV- many are now stop paying their mtgs -in mass- as they run a zero percent chance that the banks can even file a NOD on them-at least for the next 18 months when AB 284 expires.
Govt intervention does a funny thing to twisting reality and creating a false sense of market conditions.
“Guys like Joe will be the death of bubbleinfo.”
Nah, I really don’t think so. The death of bubbleinfo will happen if the general real estate marketplace is re-regulated, back logs are cleared, oversight along with enforcement correct the general atmosphere. Gotta fix the issues that created the bubble in the first place, make changes to discourage the behavior that fuels it, checks and balances. The other possibility; you become too busy (either in real estate or through other endeavors) to continue it.
Besides, Joe’s initials are J A.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHFDa9efCQU
JA is such the obvious troll. Don’t do it, Jim…don’t feed him!!
It seems like he tried set fire to this thread, but instead he ran into a wall of fire retardant.
FAIL
Jim: I love reading your blog. I only wish you were located in West Los Angeles and not San Diego so that my son could use you to find a house to purchase. Any recommendations would be appreciated since you cannot help.
Jim I ask you not to let clowns like Joe get to you. He’s just a troll and I support you cutting his comments and banning him as he is spewing the type of garbage that has no place here. You have always been gracious in accepting differing viewpoints and input and this site benefits from that, but this clown Joe’s comments and tone if you will are just a waste of space.
“I believe you try to build up trust by calling out obvious liar such as NAR, and that you hope to cash in on that trust by selling people houses.”
Running a successful business by telling potential clients the truth and building trust. What a novel concept.
The anonymity of the internet empowers those of limited imagination and intellect to make scurrilous allegations and baiting assumptions.
I will reiterate my position re: JTR. I’ve bought two houses through him and have recommended him to several others who have also availed themselves of his superior services. When I’m in the market again, I will of course go to Jim. He out-hustles 99% of the rest of the trade and makes the process of buying and selling real estate relatively painless, and I fell well served.
I find the blog a source of information and entertainment. Please ignore the (obvious) trolls Jim….for every positive comment here there are 20 more who feel the same way, they just haven’t posted their encouragement to keep up the great work!
Hi Jim. We check your blog often, even though we live in Santa Barbara. Low inventory is a big problem up here. We would like to buy, but there is literally only one home on the market that we would consider and it is priced at what I believe to be 200k too high at 1.15M. Frustrating, but when there is nothing to buy what are you going to do? There have been a few well priced short sales, but they turn in to a feeding frenzy and we always get outbid. Also, the feeding frenzy is not really my style for a rest of your life home purchase. If I lived in San Diego I would use you as my realtor. Keep up the great work!
I got into Real Estate Sales a couple of years ago and had been a regular follower of this blog for quite a while before that. Jim is old scholl, like the agents and Brokers I spend time with. Honesty, hard work and knowledge of the market are what he offers those who can appreciate it. Real Estate is a service business, Jim understands that and provides outstanding service. I would unhesitatingly refer anyone who asked me for a good agent in the San Diego to Jim. I work Sonoma County and Inventory is also thin here, with some areas and price tiers appearing close to a bottom (To the degree anyone can call it, Black Swans do show up from time to time)
Thanks everyone for the warm comments!