This is my month.
Back in April 2009 at the VOSD housing roundtable, I speculated that the low point in Case-Shiller Index would be December, 2011. It was said off-the-cuff, and for comedic effect after Rich T. had just described how difficult it would be to predict the exact month with all the variables.
Little did any of us know that we were in the trough then – at least, so far!
The Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted index for San Diego:
Dec 2011: 151.02
Nov 2011: 151.11 (flat MOM)
Dec 2010: 159.62 (-5.4% YOY)
May 2009: 145.56 (+3.8% since trough)
The Case-Shiller non-SA index for San Diego:
Dec 2011: 150.42
Nov 2011: 151.45 (-0.7% MOM)
Dec 2010: 158.97 (-5.4% YOY)
April 2009: 144.43 (+4.1% since trough)
If a lower CSI makes want to go out and buy a house, you’ll find fewer homes to consider. The number of short sales and REO listings are coming on the market about the same as the previous two years, but regular sellers appear to be reluctant.
Generally there are about 20% fewer new listings to consider around NSDCC:
Last year the new listings got off to a fast start, and after April dropped off unusually quickly. Hopefully this year there will be a more constant flow of new listings. The banks need to prod the defaulters to list those short sales – otherwise they are just going to work the free-rent program!
Rich T’s median home data is projecting a little more weakness in the 3 month rolling average but if we get a nice spring bounce then I’d call it a good call.
http://piggington.com/january_2012_resale_data_rodeo