CR’s bottom call caused many to scoff, and point to various ivory-tower theories to refute it.
This is what he said, which is more of a technical call about home-price indexes:
And it now appears we can look for the bottom in prices. My guess is that nominal house prices, using the national repeat sales indexes and not seasonally adjusted, will bottom in March 2012.
The house-price indexes are good for measuring the general regional or national trend, and reflecting some consumer sentiment.
The naysayers are using either general theories with little or no specific current evidence to support them, or they declare that history always repeats itself so we don’t have to consider relevant facts.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let’s examine these theories, and use actual evidence from the street in rebuttal.
These apply to my local market, but because San Diego is not different, they could apply to other areas. You can decide for yourself:
1. Wages/Incomes haven’t risen, high unemployment/no jobs, and household formation is lagging.
There are people who are struggling, and I have empathy.
But in spite of the unemployment/no jobs/no raises, there has still been a healthy demand for houses that are priced correctly (around recent sales), and it is building steam.
Consider my listing at 554 Meadowbrook, which was mentioned on the talk show with Bill. We ended up having to take the one owner-occupied offer because Fannie gives them special consideration for the first 14 days on market. But he had a tax lien on him that he couldn’t resolve.
The house went back on the open market, and open to investor offers. Between Friday and Tuesday there were eleven all-cash offers submitted, and it sold over list price.
There is nothing about this house that would warrant such a fanatical response – see for yourself:
MLS listing: 554 Meadowbrook Map: http://g.co/maps/wu3dg
Richard’s video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUt4hxHt2lE
Could unemployment/no jobs/no wage increases cause people to have to sell their house? Yes, but there were 11 cash investors that are willing to pay retail or close for this dog, plus another couple dozen phone calls from people who would have paid less and didn’t offer.
Investors are providing a pricing floor to the market, and either flipping or building their portfolio. If the market runs out of steam and they can’t flip, they will be stuck renting them, but that is their problem – they are paying cash.
Furthermore, virtually every offer I make on behalf of clients finds itself in a bidding war. We are like most buyers and only chasing the good buys, but there is competition literally on every single offering. There could be hundreds of additional sales if sellers would get off their high horse, price-wise.
2. Shadow inventory/underwaters – Laurie Goodman is still the current record-holder of the highest guess – she expects 10 million more foreclosures. Four or five million houses sell every year in America, so if a third of those are distressed sales, we could clear out the entire inventory of those underwater in 5-6 years. But have you noticed how reluctant people are to give up their house?
Let’s note how hot the market is now – San Diego County detached-home listings:
Active detached-home listings:
REO/SS: 1,558
Non-REO/SS: 3,930
Total active detached listings: 5,488
Pending/Contingent detached-home listings:
REO/SS: 3,405
Non-REO/SS: 2,142
Total pending and contingent detached listings: 5,547
There are more listings that are pending/contingent than active!!!
In addition, the REO and short-sale listings are the hot sellers. We are regularly seeing short sales get approved in 60 days (we got two approved this week) and buyers are more willing to wait, due to the overall low inventory.
Bring on the distressed properties, buyers are waiting! The Fed/Gov/Banking troika will ensure that they are dripped out in an orderly fashion.
3. Overshoot
Overshoot already happened in San Diego, at least at the lower-end where everyone thinks recovery has to start. I’ll use Oceanside for an example, one of the largest towns in the county and full of regular folks.
Detached-home sales under $200,000:
2008: 101
2009: 214
2010: 80
2011: 79
2012: 6 houses currently for sale under $200,000 in Oceanside, and three of the six are priced at $199,900.
4. Higher-end hasn’t corrected yet.
These are the houses worth keeping, and owners will try harder to find a way. There are only 654 properties (in a county of 3 million people) that are on the default lists with loans over $800,000. Last year we sold 2,248 SD County properties over $800,000 – we can handle more higher-end distressed sellers.
5. Can’t get mortgage financing.
An bold-face lie spewed by those not in the business, and just scraping for headlines.
6. When rates go up, everyone is toast.
According to the Fed statement, they won’t be raising their rates until late-2014. If the bond market went nuts, and mortgage rates jumped more than 2% (we’d handle anything less) the Fed/Gov will find a way to ease the pain. They’ve given their banking buddies too much help to screw it up now.
7. The trillions in government debt has to come home to roost.
The USA will conduct a strategic default if/when needed. Every county does, and at some point, there won’t be any other choice.
We’ve been in these market conditions for almost three years. Whether we label it ‘bottom’ or not, this is what we have – a trading range of about 10% for any property, with swings in that range based on the quality of the physical condition/sellers/agents.
People should question the application of old theories/history in an environment that is unprecedented. Consider the upside surprises – the two big ones are how much cash is in play, and how resilient underwater sellers have been so far.
What say you?
Before anyone gets excited just because Clint said we’ll be hearing engines roar, please review George Carlin’s American Dream on youtube. It is the template of today’s America.
We are in bizarro world with regards to real estate. Basically, I have taken the position that I am screwed either way if I decide to buy or if I continue to rent. Should I decide to buy a house, the Fed/Government is practically leaving me with no alternative than to go with FHA financing.
I can’t understand any of the macroeconomic arguments (like #1) being a realistic issue. The economy may not have recovered yet by most metrics, but it has certainly improved over the past 2 years. Pick your metric, the economy bottomed some time in 2009.
Jim,
I say that housing is still like a giant cargo ship. It takes a long time to turn around, but once it does, it’s not likely to turn again for a while.
I thought prices were insane in 2004, and it took a full 3 years before things started moving the other direction.
I don’t think you’ll see 10-25% appreciation per year, but a moderate 2-5% could work.
I think Bill’s right.
Chuck
These are all good points for some kind of bottom or continued stabilization of the housing market. There are additional ones that are pointed out by Mr. Toscano considering price to rent and extremely low average monthly mortgage payments. Inventory is tight and seasonal factors also suggest a spring bounce so I think we’ll see the call be right over the next 6 to 12 months without a doubt.
I don’t think we’re seeing a long term bottom here in real prices, although I can see the argument for a nominal price bottom. I think we’re likely to run into headwinds before we’re fully recovered (another recession is bound to show up in 3-5 years, demographics, college debt, etc.) We’ll see real estate do fine in terms of utility (It’s a nice place to live at a reasonable price) but not so well in terms of investment (I think housing appreciation will lag inflation).
As for the somebody’s bound to get it right comment it was too snarky especially considering I agree with it in the short term and with some of the underlying caveats. I apologize.
Bill has almost no equal in his research abilities and comprehension of the housing (and certain other) markets and his conclusions are the absolute epitome of “data driven”. Hence his early data specific housing bubble call while the naysayers used general theories ex relevant facts in response. Sadly it seems the tables have somewhat turned and many of his old supporters are the ones employing general theories ex relevant facts in response. I’ve never seen him either married to a position nor shy about publishing his conclusions.
Some have characterized his call as if he were predicting immediate price increases when he specifically stated:
“And this doesn’t mean prices will increase significantly any time soon. Usually towards the end of a housing bust, nominal prices mostly move sideways for a few years, and real prices (adjusted for inflation) could even decline for another 2 or 3 years.”
I don’t know if time will prove his call to be correct or almost correct, but I fail to understand how you could know anything about his body of work and believe that time will prove him wrong. But that’s just me, the janitor.
And Jim did a superb job here of taking the macro issues and narrowing them down to focus on his home turf. Bill and Jim are exceptional individuals – take advantage!
If I found my dream home and the price was right, I wouldn’t be too terribly afraid to buy it now. It’s “I found my dream home” that has always been the most difficult part for me.
I kind of see things on both sides.
1) I bought a house to live in last summer/fall and am pretty happy with the purchase. I would encourage anyone on the fence to buy a personal residence in the near term if you want to own.
2) I am not in any rush to be buying investment property on a macro basis. One here, one there when obvious mispricings/distress present themselves, but not anywhere near ‘market value’.
Personally, can handle up/down as my horizon is likely 15 yrs.
Investment horizons are 3-7 yrs so no thank you…more odds of being wrong than right.
Would rather lend to investment property borrowers and have the luxury of being 30%-40% wrong while collecting a nice yield.
One man standing with his feet firmly planted on both sides of the fence.
A solid interaction creates great dialogue that forces everyone to defend their position. The facts are the facts. Lets look at the other side of the fence.
1. Unemployment is high and the unemployment data does not add back the under employed who decided to stop looking(that is crazy). Also no one can refute that because a small percentage can buy and 10 can put a cash offer on a house that does not represent that the general market conditions are at a bottom.
2. Shadow inventory and REO represent 30% of SD homes sold. In San Diego 35% of homes are negative or near negative equity. Per Corelogic data(fed source for data), in 92130 alone 2,739 homes have negative equity. That represents a size percentage that have 5-10 years of renting a home with no equity. A divorce, health or job relocation will force sales on the 2700 CV home owners who will need to write a check to sell their home. Will they do that?
3. Overshoot. As your blogger Chuck posted, Rich Toscano said it better than all of us. In 1990 overshot in price to income by 20% on the upside and overshot on the downside by 21%. In 2005 we overshot Price to income by “71%” and are only overshot by 10% so far. Rich even states he bought a house and see more slowing. See this great article http://piggington.com/shambling_towards_affordability_november_2011
4. Higher end always corrects last as they have the resources to last a little longer. Banks have no incentive to take a loss and foreclose on a $3mm home vs a $700k home
5. Financing. It is tough. Ask any reader who gets a refi. I make a good income with great ratios and was denied on a refi twice and it took, two manager explanations, daily calls and 94 days to complete. Trust me it is still tough.
6. and 7 No comment
But remember the SD 1990 downturn took seven years from top top bottom when the market overshot down as much as he overshot up. The 1990 downturn proved that real estate moves slow and that patience is important. Real estate is a momentum driven supertanker. Be patient. This latest downturn was four times larger bubble and this market we have worse credit accessibility, and higher unemployment.
Since the the super tanker real estate market moves slow there is no downside to bid 10 % below comps often, and do not let the agents strong arm you. Be counter intuitive, avoid herd behavior and stay patient. If your bid embarrasses you and your realtor, then your price is right.
I’ll quibble with the US strategically defaulting. I don’t think any country has ever defaulted on debt denominated in its own currency. That would be a pretty stupid thing to do.
Now that we’ve reached the bottom we can start speculating about when the next bubble will be… 🙂 I think it will be a while before we hear “Buy now or be priced out forever!” again.
I think the bottom will be March 2012, 2013 or 2014. It’s rho-sham-bo between the three of them. I would bet on 2014 but not expecting it to be more than 8% down from 2012.
It isn’t that I see alot of desperation forcing housing down. I just don’t see anything exciting at all. Economy, housing, stock market, etc. probably just going to plod along for a year or two. Maybe a recession will pop in there as well.
Many people say that housing won’t come down any more because the gov will always prop it up with “government cheeze” But if there is any hint that government cheeze is needed, it means there really isn’t any compelling economic force pushing it upward.
A propped-up market is certainly not a growing market.
Apparently there are examples of governments defaulting on debt in their own currency. Oops.
There are a few places around the country that will hold value because of location (ie. San Diego). Certain neighborhoods within any metro area will retain value.
But folks, we are a long way from the bottom, even in much of San Diego.
Some places, like Detroit, will fall much farther than others. But the last 35 years have put us in an epic clusterf… that we won’t easily get out of.
I think the only way out of this is for the govt. to force the banks to write down mortgages to the market value of the property. For interested homeowners, rewrite their loans at low interest rates and go from there. The banks got bailed out, now it’s the peoples turn.
Of course, this will never happen. Which is why the bottom is still a long way off. My guess, at the rate we’re going, at least another 5 to 8 years.
We are definitely still years from a bottom according to historical cycles and this being a bigger bubble. Sellers are still dreaming of the haydays of the top. Take for example the seller of this house we sold in 2007, he wants $240,000 more than what his purchase was in that year and the only improvement was a kitchen makeover. Plus his “agent” uses the same pictures as when we sold the house and gets the square footage wrong should be 4,400.sq. ft.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Dimas/375-Puddingstone-Dr-91773/home/7914536
I agree with the negative equity risk is a cloud over housing that will cause small downward adjustments. Prices can not rise with the negative equity pressure. This risk will not disappear because the banks are playing a smoke and mirror game by limiting supply.
There is no doubt that higher rates of negative equity are creating a lot of latent vulnerability in the housing market. How can you assume other wise?
If generic household or even a Carmel Valley household encounters some economic shock, like the loss of a job, job relocation, divorce or death, then that household is much, much more likely to go into foreclosure. They have no liquidity so they are at the mercy of the market and are forced to short sale the home. Contrary to posts these homeowners are not sitting on $70,000 of cash in the bank to pay of the negative equity.
There is no doubt that high higher rates of negative equity and future short sales will then lead to elevated rates of foreclosure.
The higher rates of foreclosure will put increasing pressure on home prices, causing them to fall further and lowering comps, which in turn puts even more borrowers underwater into negative equity. This is a bigger deal than the second risk which is the walkaway issue (or strategic default. This is when borrowers see no chance of ever having equity in their homes, so they walk away rather than becoming permanent pseudo-renters, responsible for the high cost of the home’s upkeep but reaping no equity benefit.
I do not feel that it will cause a significant drop in prices but there is no way prices can rise with this overhang.
The pent up problems will last until the properties are sold, short sold or foreclosed and when will ultimately revert back to the mean negative equity numbers.
Like Still surfing I also see the risks.
I work for a title company and see the negative equity data monthly and it is scary.
The problem is that many of the negative equity numbers do not include second mortgages or firsts that were refi’d after the purchase where cash out was pulled and the loan amount was increased.
Most negative equity estimates are based on original purchase price of the house itself. This means that negative equity data that is circulating on this blog is on the low side and are probably higher percentage underwater
I see discussions on all the cash buyers out ready to buy. You would think it is 1999 all over again. Unfortunately, the cash buyers are anomalies and segmented in a few scenarios but not the norm. These discussions create a false feeling that unlimited demand exists.
The reason the negative equity issue is so important is that it slows resales. The real risk lies where negative equity hampers the housing market as it relates to repeat home buyers or those that want to buy up.
This is because to re buy or buy larger home a homeowner has to sell, which means paying off the first (and second) mortgages, paying a Realtor 6%, pay $15,000 to $20,000 in moving costs, putting 10% to 20% down on the new purchase and repurchase additional furniture.
When you lower the negative equity thresholds that include unreported seconds, effective negative equity will represent an estimated 40% of Carmel Valley and 60% of Mira Mesa and UTC and will keep the organic buyer from UTC , Mira Mesa, and Carmel Valley away from upgrading to High End($900k) Carmel Valley(Rancho P), RSF, Santa Luz, Crosby, Del Mar at bay for a long time.
I thank all of you for the thoughtful comments. This is different than what my friends and co workers are saying
Thanks Jim!
Chuck Ponzi,
What is your logic to assume we will see a “moderate” 2% -5%?
A growth rate of 2% -5% is not “moderate” as real estate on average hovers a hair above inflation.
Your projection suggests above average growth. I am curious how you came up with that figure?
DNR: I agree with …………….”it will be a while before we hear “Buy now or be priced out forever!”
GeneK : I like …………..”If I found my dream home and the price was right, I wouldn’t be too terribly afraid to buy it now.”
Here in Sonoma County I see strong demand for well priced homes. Multiple offers within days from qualified buyers. I also see the price buyers consider “Right” declining and expect that trend to continue for a year or longer. In “Good areas” I expect roughly 20% more of a decline in the sub $800k price tiers. The true high end is a different beast and we still see quite a few all cash deals for million dollar plus properties. The rich are doing just fine, thanks.
9.A solid interaction creates great dialogue that forces everyone to defend their position.
Dialogue? There’s no dialogue. You, 13, 14, 15, and 16 just ignore my evidence, or declare it invalid, without discussion.
CR’s call wasn’t about prices, but prices are what everyone is interested in, so… I’ll say what I said over at CR — has Japan’s housing bottomed yet?
BootyJuice @6, Well said.
Anecdote: I used to work with a gal who did a SS in early 2007(house actually sold for what they paid for it but they’d done a $200k equity extract for toys).
She moved out of state and went back to college, she finished early last year and couldn’t find a job in her field so she’s been working as a secretary at a small company for less than a year.
She told me all this in a Christmas card she sent me and her last update was that she’d bought a house. My jaw hit the floor!
JtR, do you see any evidence in your area of those “early bird” short sellers getting back into the market? If so, there’s about to be a bunch of new buyers coming back into the market over the next couple of years.
SMH.
I perhaps run with a different crowd, but yes, many I know in Orange County with 2 working adults are making sufficient to hold substantial mortgages with a single income and they have quite a lot in savings (far more than 70K).
We’re in more agreement than I think you may see. I also believe we are about to head into a period of above average inflation. Not runaway. Not high. Just above average. 2-5%, although I’d put my over/under at 2.5%.
To all others who fear a monumental crash… I believe your fears are overblown. Many hours of personal research cannot be summed up in a concise argument, but I believe that our Federal Reserve is poised to act whenever necessary to whatever lengths it must to maintain moderate inflation. That is a stated inflationary policy. I do not doubt their mettle or ingenious future designs.
Don’t hate the player, hate the game. I’ve made myself a lot of money learning how to play it after hating it and giving up.
Chuck
I believe your fears are overblown.
The Fed is it’s own worst enemy, having created the bubble in the first place. I expect their next unintended consequence to rate much higher on the Richter scale.
p.s.: Guess I’ll have to get over to your blog again and restore your pessimism. 😉
Two reasons I can’t find optimism for the national market:
1. Real under/unemployment — not the fake figures that are publicized — is still out of sight nationally (may not be true in San Diego).
2. The demographics (people forming households) are against us nationally (may not be true in San Diego). The leading edge of the boomers is starting to face up to retirement realities and are have already or are going to stop spending.
20.9.A solid interaction creates great dialogue that forces everyone to defend their position.
Dialogue? There’s no dialogue. You, 13, 14, 15, and 16 just ignore my evidence, or declare it invalid, without discussion.
OK, I’ll bite. Here’s a point by point rebuttal to your evidence. Hope you keep this post up so we can continue the discussion.
1.) Your example of a hot market for low end home selling for approx 100X’s monthly rent is very different than the reality of NCC homes still selling at over 200X’s monthly rent. The returns are solid for low end properties and good relatively safe alternatives to fixed income securities which offer close to no return at all. Thats apples and oranges to typical upper middle class homes purchased as primary residences.
2.) With artificially low supply numbers (i.e. inventory) it makes perfect sense that more listings are pending than active. What would happen if inventory tripled to what would be the longer term average level.
3.) An overshoot on the low end in Oceanside circa 2009 when there was fear of a global collapse does not make a solid case. We never came close to an overshoot situation in most of NCC and there is still work to be done.
4.) Most higher end homeowners are long term beleivers in real estate. They have the income and staying power to keep paying a severely underwater property. They believed things would come back but after 4 or 5 years they are wearing out. I know several who are $200,000+ on the negative side of the ledger. They now understand they are in a virtual debtors prison and finally ready to consider walking or short selling.
5.) There is ample financing for full doc borrowers but the self employed and business owners who make up a large percentage of NCC are still having a real tough go with mortage financing. When was the last time you refinanced and how do you think that would go?
6.) They have no choice but to keep rates low and continue a slow bleed. Rates have to stay lower for a decade to clean up this mess. Wage inflation takes a long time to reach peoples paychecks. Sure the worst is over but we are most likely no further than the half time show on the road to a full recovery.
7.) The US will conduct a strategic default if/when needed? Why becuae everyone else is jumping off a bridge. Didn’t your mother ever use that line on you. Can’t even begin to address this one.
Keep it going so people can twist what I say and take anonymous pot shots at me?
Great. I don’t know why I bother.
1. If there are 11 cash offers for junkers, it would indicate strong demand for lower-end junkers.
But the highlighted paragraph said that I encounter multiple offers on virtually every house we try to buy. Please dwell on that thought, that’s why it’s in blockquotes.
There are a lot of losers, which means mathematically the demand will be around for a while. Get out of mom’s basement and go try to buy a house around here, and then you can start your own blog and tell us about it.
2. What would happen if the inventory tripled? What if a volcano erupted at Torrey Pines HS? What if the moon crashed into the earth? If you want to talk about facts, fine, but using your hypotheticals to ignore my points doesn’t impress.
3. No overshoot in most of NCC? There won’t be any overshoot if the banks keep letting people live rent-free for years – they will drip them out as needed. Have you not heard?
4. You know several people who are thinking about possibly getting around to maybe walking or short-selling some day? Have them call me – I have buyers for every one of their houses.
5. Self-employed make up a large percentage of NCC? Link please.
Buyers are paying cash and using big down payments to get affordable payments – ones for which they can qualify.
We sold 23,000 houses in the county last year – that’s it. I don’t need everybody to buy, just a couple of thousand per month out of the 3 million people here.
I don’t cheat on my taxes, so I don’t have trouble qualifying. If there are self-employeds out there who want to qualify, all they have to do is report more income and pay more tax for two years and they will get a loan.
6. Low rates are here to stay – making payments attractive to buy vs. rent plus they force investors to chase higher risk elsewhere – like investment-grade real estate or junkers. I expect five more years of struggle, doesn’t everybody?
7. Don’t bring my mother into this.
Jim,
If you want blog traffic now looks to be the time to rebrand as bottominfo.com!
Cheating on taxes has nothing to do with it and is not an answer. I have gone through a refi as a self employed individual and it was excruciating. By your answer its pretty safe to assume you havent actually gone through a refinance.
Jim
For the record, my refi was a pain as well as I am also self employed. We worked directly with Wells and what a pain.
Look at the positive that 30 posts are doing.
SEO traffic is driven by blog and comment activity and relevant content. With respect,most comments are cheerleader. These recent posts drive new outstanding relevant content and assist with you SEO rankings. I assume the blog is about getting exposure and getting business
Also I think we are all on the same page. There are three points:
If you want to buy now bid low now and often on the perfect pad to wake up sellers out of euphoric cloud to get the spread(offer v bid) back in line.
Although a bad valuation metric, payment to income are at all time lows.
Accept you will not call the bottom regionally and if you find the right pad be ready to move as you are buying at 2001(many RSF) to 2003 levels.
Wells Fargo is the worst mortgage lender on the planet.
They approved my #1 buyer at their “preferred private-client” division for $500,000, and then I took him down the street to Susan at Mutual of Omaha Bank where they funded $1.6 million in 30 days.
If you have trouble getting purchase or refi money, it is because your lender is no good. Usually because they are running scared and are overly concerned about selling their loans to Fannie/Freddie, or hamstrung by some other internal auditing/scrutiny.
Jim,
Just another anecdote. We lost out on our bid today.
We offered 70k over asking (almost 10%), 5 day inspection period, no appraisal contingency, no termite.
I feel kicked in the stomach; this was the second bidding war in a row that we lost out to (both offering quite a lot more than asking).
This sucks.
It’s worse than 2004 out there. Just my opinion.
Chuck
Jim – no response to my government cheeze theory? Your original post doesn’t really address this argument at all.
You often point out measures the gov takes to prop up the market – information I appreciate. Can a propped-up market really flourish and see rising prices ?
I think they’ll prop it up to a point where it merely eeks by with little growth. After it can stand on its own, they’ll pull out the support and it will continue to eek by until it gains traction on its own. This is years away.
I think the most compelling evidence that the local market is not so “hot” is the Redfin graphs to the right. Maybe a Spring bounce coming, but the trend is your friend and the trend is down, regardless of anecdotal data regarding multiple offers on crap homes.
Even Wells Fargo can have its moments.
Wells froze a second HELOC I had on a rental property back in O9 with a zero balance.
A couple of months ago, I applied to get it back. Gave them my tax returns, answered a few questions with a fairly intelligent underwriter, and bingo I had it back within 3 weeks. They didn’t even want an appraisal. I was kind of amazed at how easy it was.
Those redfin graphs look like a ball bouncing down a hill to me.
Sum young guy has a valid point with no1, rental return on cash invested in property beats the near zero return on cash in the bank etc. and property ALWAYS INCREASES IN VALUE over the long term (check tenement rentals and sales prices in Rome over the last 3000 years). By the time you have paid off a 15 year mortgage you WILL have a capital gain plus the cash saved on either rent not paid or rent recieved.
I don’t think many people ever think about paying off their mortgages. Even those who are retiring now I see getting 30-year mortgages.
Its like people are perpetually paying a mortgage because they are so used to the mortgage deduction when in fact if they had paid off their mortgage they would be much better off. (Any Dave Ramsey fans out there?)
Just my $0.02.
I’m late to the game by a month, but maybe you should register http://www.bottominfo.com or http://www.troughinfo.com .
I have been advising my friends to buy as long as the property is 18X the annual rent or less, and they can stick it out for 10 years in the worst case scenario.