Happy New Year!

Will 2012 get off to a fast start? It is somewhat predictable, let’s consider some data.

The quarterly detached sales in NSDCC:

The first half sales have been stronger the last two years, but it’s probably due more to the improvement we’ve had since March 2009 in both housing and the stock market.

Will we have 500 sales in the first quarter of 2012?

Let’s review the categories to estimate:

1. The MLS shows that are 275 listings in the pending category, and 187 of those were marked pending on December 13th or prior, so they are beyond their 17-day contingency period and pretty likely to close. Let’s say 170 will close in 1Q12. Of the other 88, let’s say half will close, or 44.

2. There are 119 listings marked contingent, but they tend to be flaky, and drawn out. Let’s say only 50 of those will close in 1Q12.

3. There are currently 1,100 active listings – how many will close in 1Q12? They are a picked-over bunch, so they will have to be lowering their price aggressively to get back in the game – but how many sellers will resist, thinking that the spring selling season is just around the corner? Plenty, so let’s say only 10%, or 110, will close in the first quarter.

4. There were 137 listings that closed in 1Q11 that also listed in 1Q11 – they weren’t messing around. Coincidentally, there were 136 like that in 2010, so let’s use 137 for 2012.

170 + 44 + 50 + 110 + 137 = 511 estimated sales in the first quarter of 2012.

I think 511 sales in the first quarter is conservative. With 30-year mortgage rates averaging under 4%, the market is ripe for a quick start – it will take a boatload of stubborness of behalf of sellers for us not to sell more NSDCC houses this quarter, than in recent years.

But that seller stubborness is certainly possible!