Towards the end of this youtube tour, I mention the price ranges around the North SD County Coastal region, and note that there probably won’t be much change in 2012.
Reasons:
1. The inventory is so thin that there aren’t enough comps in either direction to change the trend, up or down. There might be a flurry here and there, but overall there won’t be conclusive evidence.
2. The banks/servicers might increase the foreclosure production, but not enough to impact the market in a big way. I wish they would flood the market with quality bank-owned properties at attractive prices, and create some real market clearing.
It would ignite the market, and buyers would rush in to get a bank deal while financing is cheap. We know what happens when buyers rush in – it creates frenzy-like conditions, and the appearance of pricing going up. I hope it happens because the market needs it, but it would be a nightmare for me – all my buyers want deals!
3. Sellers with equity will still think it’s a bad time to sell, keeping inventories low – especially of quality homes.
4. Any catastrophic events – Europe implosion, double-dip recession/unemployment, earthquake, Chargers winning the Super Bowl, etc. would cause the market to freeze up until the Fed can print enough money to solve it.
5. Next year, politics and the election will be more distracting, which causes indecision/inaction.
Typical tract all right…what did these sell for when new in 2000? Can’t imagine they sold for $700k+ with tile kitchen & bath counters and ceramic mexi-tile floors.
I can’t believe BofA would try to sell an $800K house with carpet that gross. Wait, did you say BofA? Nevermind…
Also mystifying why the owner would blow a ton of money on the lagoon pool, but leave the builder basic kitchen alone. Bachelor pad?
I noticed those new ‘algae pools’ are all the rage these days.
Is that a nuclear power plant stack? If so, I wonder what the cancer rates are in that neighborhood?
Hi Jim,
You’re right, I think banks will continue to be even more intransigent in price in 2012. It costs nothing to hold reo or nonperforming when they can borrow at 0%.
Slow, slow, slow bleed. Besides, all that free living is actually helping the economy with extra disposable income, so bank examiners are giving special concessions on NPA. Anyone can debate how big the effect is, but noone knows for sure and there’s no sense in finding out (at least according to the FED).
Now that I’m back to renting, I’m experiencing this firsthand.
Chuck
Looks like a Taylor-Woodrow circa 1999? Identical interior fixtures of Mar Fiore styles in Aviara. Those sold in the 600’000’s originally.
Chuck,
“Now that I’m back to renting, I’m experiencing this firsthand.”
Didn’t you just recently buy?
El Bee,
Yeah. Did big reno too. Wife hated the new area. Sold it for a small loss. Prices dropped about 5-10% in the last year.
My regret is that I didn’t just wait a year longer. I could have bought exactly what I wanted for what I paid for something I only kinda wanted.
I’m on this whole kick in my life to “satisifice”, not “maximize”. Life is too short to worry about coulda woulda shoulda. Take the loss and move on. There are literally thousands of people who wish they could have sold in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and now 2011. Lower the price and get ‘er done.
Chuck