Hat tip to my father-in-law for sending this along!
Whether these changes are good or bad depends in part upon how we adapt to them, but, ready or not, here they come!
1. The Post Office. Get ready to imagine a world without the post office. They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably no way to sustain it long term. Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive. Most of your mail every day is junk mail and bills.
2. The Check. Britainis already laying the groundwork to do away with checks by 2018. It costs the financial system billions of dollars a year to process checks. Plastic cards and online transactions will lead to the eventual demise of the check. This plays right into the death of the post office. If you never paid your bills by mail and never received them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.
3. The Newspaper. The younger generation simply doesn’t read the newspaper. They certainly don’t subscribe to a daily delivered print edition. That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man. As for reading the paper online, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to form an alliance. They have met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell phone companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.
4. The Book. You say you will never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the literal pages. I said the same thing about downloading music from iTunes. I wanted my hard copy CD. But I quickly changed my mind when I discovered that I could get albums for half the price without ever leaving home to get the latest music. The same thing will happen with books. You can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview chapter before you buy. And the price is less than half that of a real book. and think of the convenience once you start flicking your fingers on the screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost in the story, can’t wait to see what happens next, and you forget that you’re holding a gadget instead of a book.
5. The Land Line Telephone. Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don’t need it anymore. Most people keep it simply because they’ve always had it. But you are paying double charges for that extra service. All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes.
6. Music. This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It’s the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who like to hear it. Greed and corruption is the problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates simply self-destruction. Over 40% of the music purchased today is “catalog items,” meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book Appetite for Self-Destruction by Steve Knopper and the video documentary “Before the Music Dies.”
7. Television. Revenues to the networks are down dramatically. Not just because of the economy. People are watching TV and movies streamed from their computers. And they’re playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime time shows have degenerated to lower than the lowest common denominator. Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds. I say good riddance to most of it. It’s time for the cable companies to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose what they want to watch online and through Netflix.
8. The “Things” That You Own. Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in “the cloud.” Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be. But all of that is changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest “cloud services.” That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system.
So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If you save something, it will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. That’s the good news. But, will you actually own any of this “stuff” or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big “poof”? Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the insert.
9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That’s gone. It’s been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7 “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And “They” will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again. All we will have that can’t be changed are memories.
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT…MOST OF THESE THINGS ARE ALREADY TAKING PLACE, AND THE OUTCOME IS SET IN STONE.
Footnote: There will be more and more people out of work…..post office, newpaper, bank employees, many television professions, printers, music industry, etc, etc, etc.
Great post Jim.
The banks did themselves in (greed and more greed).
And right about now the Tan Man is rounding the turn, heading out for the back nine – I hope he bogeys a few.
As the relative standard of living declines, less home ownership and smaller houses.
Awesome, post, Jim! Being a widow, I learned years ago that memories are the only thing that matters. Stuff is just stuff and can be replaced. Pictures are the first thing I would grab if I was in a fire. Here’s one of my favorite quotes: “Love doesn’t make the world go ’round, love is what makes the trip worthwhile.”
No one can take away what lives in your heart…
I think there will be more focus on 1-story homes, and on security too – gates, secure locations, etc.
Make that double or triple bogeys, JtR…
“There will be more and more people out of work…..post office, newpaper, bank employees, many television professions, printers, music industry, etc, etc, etc.”
Yep, all true. But on an more uplifting note, dollars not spent here are spent on other things, on demand media, tablets, plug in cars, energy efficiency. Change and progress is good. Creative destruction of the old models allows the future to look brighter than ever.
Here, here, I’m all for creative destruction, and positive change!
I agree with most of these points, but I wouldn’t bet on Netflix replacing cable. Ability to watch stuff on demand will happen. Cable companies going away isn’t because the cable companies have the infrastructure to deliver the Internet to your house.
They’ll jack up prices on data usage until a power Netflix user is forced back to using the cable company’s on demand services at the cable company’s price.
Re #2 it was suggested in the UK but was eventually panned and the idea put down as a bad one. Note that even the bill pay services send checks in the case where the person being paid does not have an electronic facility to receive checks.
Good Post reflecting reality..In the same lines,
Wondering when does my 6% realtor gets replaced by online realtor 🙂
livinincali,
Not if wireless can break that last mile barrier. In much of socal, you can already get wireless 4g speeds through Clearwire WIMAX that rivals what cable does. Unless you need fiber, wireless LTE and WIMAX is the competition.
Cable companies are about to get their AZZ handed to them with declining data AND subscriber base. They’re buggy whip manufacturers intent in protecting theirs. They always follow a predictable path of monopoly/decline.
I already get faster WIMAX speeds on my phone than Time Warner delivers to my home.
Chuck
#5 Except in an emergency. I have been in the heart of two major wildfires, Cedar and Witch. The reason I keep my bare min land line is that is it the only one that worked consistently during those time frames. Cell’s were inconsistent or unavailable.
Wondering when does my 6% realtor gets replaced by online realtor
When I’ve tried to discuss this before, I either hear crickets, or chatter intended to poke me a little to see if I’ll bite. But I’d like to pursue the conversation.
Much of what has been developed here at bubbleinfo can contribute to the future of real estate sales – in particular, the video tours with audio commentary.
I think about this topic every day, and would like to be the one who blows the top off the existing real estate machine. I could use some feedback on these topics:
1. Zip Realty monitors your every move on their website – is that OK with you? If it is, then it would help with client management because I’ll know when you’re getting hot without having to call you every day.
2. Would you be comfortable making an offer without having been in the home? The videos give you a decent feel for a house, and if you trust my comments then it’ll save me a trip. You would still have the 17-day contingency period to check it out in person.
3. Do you mind if I represent both buyer and seller?
Do you mind if I represent both buyer and seller?
I wouldn’t mind if YOU represent both the buyer and seller. But I don’t think this would work for most RE agents. Maybe a certification to double-end deals?
From what I’ve seen in real estate 90% of the agents are novices, 5% are crooks, and 5% are knowledgeable/seasoned representatives.
The crooks take advantage of the 90% that are just happy to be making a commission.
“I already get faster WIMAX speeds on my phone than Time Warner delivers to my home.”
Yeah but how much bandwidth are you using on that wireless connection. In short bursts you probably do get better speeds than cable but if you and everybody else are all streaming movies/tv that require constant bandwidth all the time you’re performance is going to suffer.
Maybe somebody will eventually solve the bandwidth problem, but my bet is you’re going to see tiered data plans across the board or performance issues before we solve the technical problems. Even if it isn’t the cable companies that solve the problem the person that does is going to be charging you a pretty penny for the access.
I could be wrong but everybody is pushing these cloud based technologies which will put a strain on the last mile network bandwidth. If everybody adopts streaming as the mode of choice I’d expect access prices to rise rather rapidly. Might be free of the cable bill but the internet bill will be $150-200/month.
Credit and debit cards will also go away, a chip in your smartphone will communicate your account information to a store’s terminal.
Yes, some traditional careers will go away. But there will be new opportunities and jobs due to new ideas, solutions, inventions and technology.
#14
Not to be in a fist fight, but here are my thoughts.
1)Guess, i should be ok with losing my privacy, as i already lost it by typing into this site and my company monitoring the usage..:) . With google, facebook, linkedin,gmail, yahoo and every one tracking my behaviour to customize advertizing for me, i guess it is OK.
2)No. But saying this, if 6% on 600K home is buying me a walk in tour of the house by opening the lock 🙂 + help me with the standard documents for house buying + helping me introduce to a mortagage broker , so he can pester me with loads of documentation then I beleive its not worth it..
3) Sure why not Jim. Guess only thing i have to wonder is ,what is your incentive to do a bargain on the price on behalf of buyer 🙂
My main issue with 6% commission is :
-Traditionally, realtors used to provide neighborhood info, comps, and lot fo neighborhood related information. All that has become obsolete, as i can google and get all sort of info.
-So other than MLS database, and lock opening and helping me with contract( i better hire a lawyer..), i dont see a value add for 5/6% commisions..
BTW, above is purely from buyers perspective :).
Raj,
I used to think the same way as you regarding realtors. Recent experience has shown me how a GOOD realtor can make things easier in ways you can’t even imagine.
In order to get rid of the 5-6% commission you need sales volume. In order to get the sales volume up you need some technology that has a cost and you need sellers that are willing to accept market education. You might be able to reduce commissions to 3-4%, you have overhead in the technology, but it’s still going to be tough to pull sellers from a Realtor that talks a good game and says he can get you 5-10% more than market even if they can’t.
There might be a time and place for this model again, but you need motivated sellers that are willing to accept the market realities. Right now sellers seem content to wait it out and go with the hopeful price. The technology and reduced commission doesn’t make up for the -6% of the hopeful price, yet.
Re #13 land lines also work during blackouts since phone companies have backup generators to keep the system working (If you have simple phones at home no wireless, just a plane old phone). Further if you need to call 911 (from home) they will give a better location than a cell.
THESE ARE ALL GOOD THINGS!!!!!!!
THANK YOU INTERNET!!!!!!!!!!!
I think Jim’s questions are feeling for ways to reduce his time investment so he can charge a lower commission for online real estate buying and selling. Good realtors like Jim who know their neighborhoods and the gotchas to look out for when buying/selling a house ARE worth paying commish…but 6% is an amount that could be lowered due to the online tools available. I answer the following as a recent gen X homebuyer:
1. No problem with this…if I’m in the market for a house, I don’t care that the real estate website tracks what properties I’ve looked at.
2. If the house was videoed in a style like Jim does, yes, absolutely! I don’t understand people’s reluctance to do this…you get 17 days to see it for yourself.
3. This gets trickier. You, yes…because ofnyour honest blog, i know that you are a straight shooting no BS kind of realtor. Just any old realtor who signed up with Redfin or Zillow? Not unless they have years worth of positive client feedback.
Lived in a couple of countries overseas and even 6 years ago, their banking systems were far more advanced: smart cards, individual encrytion unit for on-line banking; direct deposits into “payee” accounts (friends or businesses), etc. I think part of the delay in some of these advances is the float the banks get. Ex: I paid a bill online with an e-check on X date–payee didn’t cash check till 1 week later. Did the bank debit my account when they cashed it? No, it went straight out of my account on the day it was (supposedly) mailed out–date X. So they got my cash for 7 days, interest (paid to me) free.
Agree with Lyle on the landline phone. Worked for AT&T and until the local telcos with their amazingly redundant systems stop providing local service, it’s what I want as my emergency phone (again, with an old-fashioned, non-electrical phone). It will work virtually anytime. Cell phone–eehh, maybe.
ALso 911 service is designed for land lines. I’m sure eventually the technology will make it work better with cable or cell phones, but I haven’t heard anything convincing yet. I think of it as insurance.
Thanks for responding Raj, no fist fight here! 😉
Particpants need to lighten up on the initial offer. Sure buyers want to see the interior if possible before making an offer ideally, but nothing matters until the contingency period is up – that is commitment day.
I’m directing this mostly at the listing agents who still insist on live signatures only (no electronic sigs in 2011??) bank statements, prequal letter, and copy of deposit check (????? – old old school!) just to have your offer considered. One guy even wants to see your tax returns just to consider your offer!!!
There is no standardization to these qualifications, which is frustrating – everyone requires different documents, etc. If there was one pre-qual clearinghouse, or standardized format, then it would be much more effective – and buyers more willing to provide.
Let’s make it easier for buyers to buy!
what is your incentive to do a bargain on the price on behalf of buyer
Here’s where it gets tricky.
The benefit of discounted commissions goes to the person paying – which will likely always be the seller.
Will sellers discount the price accordingly? Very unlikely.
You can see why it is so frsutrating being an agent – sellers are prone to hire the agent who quotes the highest price, and the lowest commission – which doesn’t guarantee that they get their dream of top dollar. I have given up on the idea that consumers will ever be rigorous in their qualifying of their agents – they just pick the one that makes them feel good, usually.
I think the current cell phones already know where you are with the GPS inside. You are being tracked. And ATT, Verizon etc. are not your friend.
I feel sorry for all those telephone operators who lost their jobs.
And, the key punch operators.
And, the stenographers.
And, all those women in the typing pools.
You forgot the Sony Walkman, CD, and Laser Disc.
Yes, Daniel, your cellphone can be tracked, but the technology on the cellphones sends your call to Highway patrol dispatch first–not your local police/emergency, as your home phone would.
WIMAX is just one of the opportunities out there. Presently, I get about 12MBPS through my phone (can stream live video at 720p) without lag, and about 9 peak from my cable.
Cable has a theoretical limit at about 30MBPS, while WIMAX has proven up to 100MBPS, with next gen mobile near 200MBPS. LTE Advanced, on the other hand has a theoretical limit of 1GBPS (approx).
You can right now get clearwire myfi service for your house or mobile for about the same price as cable. As competition in this space increases, I’d be surprised if the carriers didn’t ALL compete for the last mile, since there’s not cable to lay. Who needs the infrastructure maintenance of FIOS when you rent a position on a tower for much less and instantly have hundreds of houses hooked up.
Unless we find a link to brain-cooking or cancer, wireless is the future. Home phone service will look positively stone age.
Just my opinion. The technology is already here and developed, not some future theory.
Think about how many people the cable companies employ just to maintain wire in the ground and resolve hookups. Cell phone companies can ship you an activated modem via Fedex and have next-day service without a tech involved.
Chuck