We tend to spend a lot of time on short sales and foreclosures, what percentage of the market are distressed sales in the North San Diego County Coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad)?

The REO and short-sale MLS detached listings that have closed escrow equal 19% of the overall market, year-to-date.

The 2011 year-to-date breakdown of closed sales, and avg. cost-per-sf:

2011 REOs Shorts Others
Jan 17/$270 18/$311 114/$389
Feb 19/$285 23/$307 124/$403
Mar 20/$293 29/$307 189/$389
Apr 16/$284 19/$277 199/$389
May 26/$292 17/$269 200/$404
Jun 15/$343 16/$304 218/$382
Jul 16/$272 26/$310 171/$392
Totals 129/$291 148/$299 1,215/$392

Four out of five this year have been regular sales.

The cost-per-sf is also influenced by location – 64% of the SS/REO closings were in Carlsbad/Encinitas.

I think we’ll see an increase of short sales over the next 24 months, unless lenders dig in over SB 458 and reject more of them.  If they decide on a case-by-case basis, they’ll probably be inclined to deny those with bigger loan amounts, and take their chances that a collection agency will be able get more after the foreclosure than the a couple of thousand dollars they’d get out of a short-sale.

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