The latest Case-Shiller Index will be released tomorrow, and more doom is expected.
Sales have been healthy though – comparing detached sales/avg. cost-per-sf from May 1-June 15:
Under $900,000
| Towns or Areas | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Carmel Vly | 22/$322 | 29/$340 | 31/$326 |
| DM/SB/RSF | 8/$373 | 4/$534 | 9/$502 |
| Enc/Cardiff | 35/$346 | 52/$359 | 36/$363 |
| Carlsbad | 108/$268 | 104/$281 | 103/$261 |
| Totals | 173/$296 | 189/$317 | 179/$305 |
Over $900,000
| Towns or Areas | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Carmel Vly | 18/$337 | 31/$352 | 32/$343 |
| DM/SB/RSF | 36/$860 | 48/$530 | 61/$528 |
| Enc/Cardiff | 9/$447 | 18/$452 | 24/$436 |
| Carlsbad | 9/$324 | 20/$294 | 19/$321 |
| Totals | 72/$611 | 117/$430 | 136/$439 |
There were 89% more sales of $900,000+ homes this year than in 2009, and much of the pop was in Del Mar, Solana Beach, and RSF.
But the way it’s going, monthly sales will be dropping somewhat – we averaged about 200 sales per month during the last half of 2009 & 2010, but there have only been 209 houses marked pending this month in NSDCC. It’s probably mean 150-175 sales per month the rest of the year.
Quite the divergence. Stock market probably has a bit to do with it and business owners in general riding out the recession better than W-2 jockeys.
I don’t know if you can blame it on the tax credit last year, but the NSDCC market started moving and hasn’t slowed down much – so far.
But if sales trend downward, the talking heads will call it severe names, and make it sound like the sky is falling.
But it’s more due to the number of sellers (not many) who are willing to sell today for what the market will bear.
They either over-price, or stay put.
I like the focus on these zips. I don’t consider La Jolla or Oceanside as the same market.
Here’s my take on what you hear from people who live in them;
Carmel Valley: “We have everything here; a Starbucks, Vons, and a new bistro that sits on an asphalt parking lot, and, I don’t deal with traffic.”
RSF/SB/DM: “I don’t commute except after 9am, ooh, I’m late for golf. Gotta go.”
Enc/Card: “I live at the beach in a fixer, and the drive downtown is only 25 minutes.”
Carlsbad: “I work off of Palomar Airport Road, I hear a new bistro is coming to the strip mall.”