Foreclosure Endurance

Written by Jim the Realtor

May 3, 2011

From Diana at cnbc.com:

For the first time in years, a guy who quantifies the foreclosure crisis got to report some good news.  Kyle Lundstedt’s colleagues at LPS Applied Analytics call him Dr. Doom, as he calculates all the numbers for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report.

But this month he got to report a drop in mortgage delinquencies, down more than 11 percent month-over month, to the lowest level since 2008.

“We’re starting to see that there are a lot of folks who are still hanging in there,” says Lundstedt. “The population is a better credit quality population.”

The subprimes, Alt-A’s, the bad lending of the housing boom, have largely moved through the system already, not to mention that big banks and servicers are getting far more aggressive with loan modifications. One quarter of the loans that were more than 90 days delinquent last year are now current. That’s not to say they will all stay current, but that’s a good sign.

Unfortunately, that’s all Dr. Doom could muster on the bright side: “It’s progress; it’s not game-changing.”  That’s because the foreclosure pipeline, that is loans 90+ days delinquent or in the foreclosure process, is enormous.

Foreclosure inventory is at a new all-time high. There are so many loans still waiting to go into foreclosure…in fact the total number of loans 90+ delinquent is 45 times the size of the current monthly foreclosure sale number. 45 times!

10 Comments

  1. greenlander

    wow, 45 months? That’s amazing.

  2. shadash

    Stop interfering with the market. Kick the deadbeats out and sell the excess inventory to the highest bidder.

  3. College Joe

    I’m sorry you can lease them, but you can buy them also now….apparently. The question is which one is better….this, or Pacific Station. I think both of them have their advantages….the “Lofts” really are AT Moonlight Beach, which is cool.

    But PS is right in downtown. But I can’t afford either, so it doesn’t matter.

    ha

  4. Jiji

    Jim,

    Is that Data National or local ?

    I find national data is fairly useless for sizing up the local market, it gets distorted by places like Vegas etc…

  5. Jim the Realtor

    Yes, it’s national but we’re hitting that point in the market where there isn’t much news to report – everybody is just waiting for sellers to lower their price.

    If I go with local news it’ll sound familiar – the standoff continues. But the second half of the year should get exciting?

  6. Jiji

    I don’t think you will see a lot of capitulation on the part of voluntary sellers, Only those who have no choice or the foreclosures, If fact I think you could almost say that nationally, it’s just not going anywhere (with the exception of the foreclosures).

    I have maintained that the economy is in the same boat (just too many underwater home owners), were not going anywhere anytime soon, I don’t think people really grasp that.

    Job’s will be harder to get and to hang on to (you will need to work twice as hard just to hang on etc..) and that won’t change until most of the underwaters are no longer underwater. And no just dumping everything will not change that although it will make a few buyers happy (at least until they are unemployed).

    It just affect too much of the economy when people CAN’T !! sell.

  7. Daniel(theotherone)

    Maybe the states should lower the time period for adverse possession. Like a month or two.

  8. Daniel(theotherone)

    Maybe the states should lower the time period for adverse possession. Like a month or two.

  9. Jiji

    Also I would not hold out any hope of the fed backing off the stimulus either.

    The foot will stay on the gas until there is only a small percentage of underwater home owners (less than 10% is my guess). Really they have no choice.

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