The level of inventory can sway the market – if we see a flood of new listings, it could cause buyers to hesitate.
How are we doing so far?
New detached listings in NSDCC, Jan 1 – Feb 6:
| Type | 2010 | 2011 |
| REO | 20 | 10 |
| SS | 47 | 42 |
| Reg. | 407 | 465 (+14%) |
| Totals | 474 | 517 |
All-San Diego County:
| Type | 2010 | 2011 |
| REO | 516 | 436 |
| SS | 832 | 801 |
| Reg. | 2,480 | 2,675 (+8%) |
| Totals | 3,828 | 3,912 |
It looks like the regular sellers are getting a jump on the rest.
I’m sure people will have arguments against his findings, but Reggie Middleton is usually right on target. San Diego may be an outlier, but I’d be not surprised if the rest of the data holds when it comes to Nevada, Florida, and Arizona…
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/frighteningly-obvious-truth-most-deny-%E2%80%93-us-housing-continues-freefall-nowhere-near-bottom
Interesting as well as very bearish Art, but note that this blog is an insider’s guide to “North San Diego County” real estate.
I love Reggie.
I’ll take his side of that bet too, as I’m sure everyone will, except Cramer.
But who cares about national or statewide stats? They literally don’t mean anything except to be used as fodder by the mainstream media to scare people.
You can’t even compare Carmel Valley stats to Carlsbad’s, so local reports are all that matter.
Well, the national stats do have some bearing on the overall economy, so I think they are worth paying a bit of attention to. Like I said, I expect San Diego to be an outlier – great weather, growing tech sector, and bordered on 3 sides with zero growth opportunity. San Diego is the closest thing we have to paradise in the US.
I think it is all an illusion.
The media and government has us believe that +2% GDP is a good thing, and -2% GDP is a bad thing, but what does the overall economy really mean to individuals?
The general stories help sway public opinions, “consumer confidence”, etc., and make us all think the same. I’m not sure that’s a good thing.
What makes a bigger impression on me is local observations.
On Friday night wifey and I dropped off the kid at a friend’s, and wound up looking for something to do around Carlsbad.
We had to go to FIVE restaurants before we could find a place that didn’t have several (10+) people waiting for a table.
Same thing here in the South Bay (lots of similarities to NCSD). Don’t even think about getting a table at an upscale restaraunt on Friday and Saturday nights without a resie unless you can handle a 45 min wait.
Rhetorically, I’m wondering how many of the ‘regular sales’ are flips. Not asking anyone to do any work or research. Easily 50% of the places I’ve looked at online and in-person are vacant/flips that were recently bought as an REO or at auction and rehabbed.
It is a strange thing that during 2009 here in Mpls/StPaul Minnesota there were empty restaurants, light rush hours, and high unemployment but housing values just slowly, slowly, gracefully declined. For the last 3 months the restaurants are filling and full, the rush hours are busy, and a general contractor friend of mine is working his butt off.
And now, just now, in the last 4 weeks, 4 houses listed within 3 blocks of my house at about 40 percent over land value (they are foreclosed and they are hammered). That’s probably the bottom but springtime will tell.
Jim,
I can second that. When we bought our house just 6 months ago, we had our pick of contractors. Now, we’ve suddenly got 2 week waits. Anecdotally, things changed this winter. Will it stay the same? I don’t know. We never reestablished equilibrium in my eyes, but we’re more at like a pseudo-equilibrium with low rates.
Even crappy restaurants are full now. I have to say, WTF?
Low interest rates, I think, can mask a lot of structural problems.
Chuck
There is no substitute for local observations. That’s why this blog is one of the top spots to stay tuned in to what’s happening in NCC.
Chuck I agree re low interest rates. Widespread masking effect. Looking at housing alone, where would we be right now if the 6 month LIBOR was 5% and all our fine friends with ARMS were looking at payments at 7.5-8% instead of 3-3.5%?
But hey, the stock market is up, maybe people are feeling better, and they are out there spending money again. We do live in an area that is notorious for its pathological consumers. Frugality is a four letter word.